In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody dive deep into the wild world of macro markets, technical breakdowns, and commodity trends that are shaping the current economic landscape. From the dramatic drop in crude oil to a surprising rally in cheese prices, this discussion is packed with insights, speculation, and a bit of fun.
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Future trading involves risk and not suitable for all investors. Content provided in the site for educational purposes and is not a.
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Solicitation to buy or sell commodities. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy. We are the tech talk trio with Paige running things from the background.
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Where Land pages has a has a friend here too. I can’t say the dog’s sleeping right now.
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A couple of animals that join us for the show, which is a nice reprieve.
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Yeah, I always love the cat that walks across every now and again. Or like sometimes my cat will show up, like, right there.
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I’m waiting.
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She’s elusive. You know what she did? So this is what she did immediately. Like tonight? Actually, no. Like, I guess early this morning, 2:00, she sits at the edge of the bed and like my toes under the covers, will sometimes do that. And she’ll like, she’ll like nibble on them through the through the covers. She’ll like, take it like, no, I’m not kidding.
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Like, she’ll like take like a little nibble.
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I will you.
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Like, nibble on my wife’s toes for once. Like, what do you get to nibble on my toes all the time.
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Okay. Oh, here. Anyway, you’re done with animal. We’re done with the story, right? All right. That’s my first and the last.
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I’ll tell you what’s not last, though. It’s not a first either. And and I hope it’s not the last. We have but three requests.
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We have three requests today. Yes we do.
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First one came from our good friend Chris. This actually came last week, but it was like we got it like, right after we filmed last week’s episode.
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Yeah, we know.
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We were trying it. We want to make sure we get it to it this week.
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Crude for Chris.
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Crude for Chris. All right, here we go. So let’s just go take a quick look at last week. This is Tuesday Monday Friday Thursday. Skipped out on Wednesday. And is that that’s when you want to look at it. So apologies we’re only we’ll get to four week later. But we’re still going to look at it. What’s interesting about this one is that, you know you obviously had I mean it’s kind of it’s almost like reminiscent of the S&P when you look at it.
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Right? I mean you have this massive break starting a job. Tough to say. I mean I think like the first thing that I think of when I see this is are we getting ready to see a bear flag?
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I was just going to ask. It’s kind of winding itself up here.
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So if I use like these closes not closes, we can I don’t want to see what the problem is, is that you have this big candle there, but even then the like let’s use that since. So we’re going to be consistent with it. This type of activity I think you can argue is more bearish than bullish because you’ve had this is 71 change, 7125 promptly goes and touches $55.
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And we’re barely over $60 at that point. So you tend to massive break. And to see this kind of steady and slight continuation upwards, I think that’s just a prelude to us having another significant break. And so, you know, where does that go? I mean, this would be the measurement is simply take that line and let’s say let’s say we broke out here now where the breakout is, let’s say it’s right there.
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Where does it take us. Well, please.
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52 bucks a barrel.
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Let’s see how close you are. You are so close. Look how close you were. 51, 78, 52. Cash. You just like it. Let’s really dial it into. Let’s see how eyeballing. I mean, you crush that like you could not have gotten any closer. I mean, come on.
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What that.
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Cash just done for the day and so.
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I’m sorry, I agree. I mean, when I look at it in mining the bulls, the best you can view is you get it up to 64 last week, probably around when Chris was emailing us. And that is it. I mean, the Bulls have not been able to sustain hardly anything here.
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Yeah for sure. This is just such a big move. I mean look at all look look at the lack of lac. But I mean looking at like the daily ranges leading up to that to. Yeah, you can even kind of zoom out, look at all these ranges leading up to that. And then you just have this abrupt, gigantic move that still is like we haven’t managed to really retrace much of any of it.
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So yeah, I look at this and say this type of like steady, this is here, here’s 17 years worth of experience going like this. So it’s like steady, the whole triangle thing that we’re making that that type of continuation upwards. It is after this big break, I think it’s a just a prelude to more weakness.
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I think, if I’m not mistaken, we saw this in corn a lot this year where you have the initial break, you kind of hold yourself there for a week. We can have and then you continue to break lower hard really fast.
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Yeah. Yeah. So I guess like to say where does where is that wrong. The market did not like to try to be above this. So this high right here. Not this one but this one. Right. Because once we try to get above that high, the market promptly went back into it. And that is typically called like a piercing line.
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So that right there the fact that it didn’t gap higher like we usually look for like that, what’s the next open. And then came back well within the range of the previous day. That’s a sign of weakness. What you would have wanted to see is just like maybe, maybe like this candle above that or something like that.
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So essentially what you’re saying is, you know, you’re wrong. Like if you got short right here, you know, you’re wrong for get a 63 settle.
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I would even say 62.5.
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Okay.
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That high is 62 and change. Right. So I wouldn’t I wouldn’t want to be short past this candle’s high. Let’s just get let’s get let’s get you an exact number for your trading account. There you go. 6238. Is that I from that day, you get it close over that. I wouldn’t want to be, but I wouldn’t want to be short that contract anymore.
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But yeah, this looks like it’s a continuation. And a lot of times you see kind of like you have a big break or a rally for that matter. Right. And then you get somewhat of a small kind of dribble back the other direction before continuing. Move. I think that’s what you know. All right. Good. Good requests. Thank you.
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Keep them coming.
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Thanks, Chris.
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This is a good one I mean it’s it’s a big macroeconomic one right. And so we certainly want to be like mindful of all the macro accounts issue with all the volatility we got going on. True. All right next speaking of volatility who the cheese. Now we didn’t move anything. We didn’t touch anything. Since last time we talked about it.
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And this was the first thing that we talked about was touching this downward trend. Now today is what Tuesday.
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Tuesday.
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All day today. And it’s a short week right. So Friday. Yeah. We don’t have we don’t have school on Friday.
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Banks are closed. Markets closed.
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Really close. So we have tomorrow on Thursday session to complete. So basically a settlement here or higher and breaks us out of this downtrend that we’ve been in since. But
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If I’m not mistaken, in the last episode when we talked about this, I think two weeks ago, maybe last week, you had said a buck 90 was going to kind of be the magnetic spot here twice.
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I think what I said was that we need to get to this. We need to go test this, this area first, right. This downtrend, we’ve broken through it. I agree, I think the next and I think we actually said was we’re going to get a bit of a setback and then go, yeah, maybe it still certainly could happen.
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We have to see how this week closes. Right. Can we get this? Can we stick this close through this downtrend. If we can then, you know, it starts to get really scary. And Cody’s going to throw up a little bit.
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Yeah. You and I were talking about this a lot.
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Oh look at that thing.
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Yep.
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Oh my gosh.
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We got a month and a half before the barrel goes away.
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And I’m so I’m glad you brought that up. So yeah going to the May contract will be the last futures contract that uses the barrel on its pricing. So for going forward I mean we’ll see how it’s a fluid situation. We’ll say well we might still continue to use the barrel in their discussions. We’ll certainly want to look more at the block.
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But yeah I mean, even if, even if you just look at the block for a second, there’s the block weekly that’s got the same.
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Weight like that. Just plain out right in front of us and nobody sees.
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I mean, well, you see, I see why nobody’s seen.
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I’m calling it right now. 225.
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Block 225. Block. Always got it. Hang on, let me. There’s that code is calling it going on all day today. So today is the exact day. It’s actually Golden Girls tax day. Bam. All right. Code is school. And on tax day for basically going to two 2375 to 25 block is what it’s saying.
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The only thing guaranteed in life is taxes. And 220 blocks.
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Right. And boy I feel like you may have just shot yourself, but we’ll see. We’ll see. I think we’ll see. Right? Yeah. I mean, like I said, we were just looking at the weekly for the average. But you know, this is at the very least this is certainly acting like it wants to complete this w. And that takes you back to where the men are basically just say see where the barrel is at 90.
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Right. And you know, I know you’re you’re eyeballing this guy. You may or may not have missed this one.
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I saw.
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Okay. You saw it.
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I saw I saw.
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So this one, this one can turn into a magnet. Especially the way the barrels look out. And. Yeah, I mean, you’ve got I mean, you’ve got so much going for it, right? I mean, you have it looks like it’s making a V bottom. You know, you had all this kind of noise right here. Nice little rounding big session last week.
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Followed up with a gap higher to open the week.
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Yeah.
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So it’s all it’s certainly I can like it once I go test this gap. What’s interesting is the futures continue to kind of I’d like to say like not believe it.
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Lagging the.
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Lagging right. I mean there’s so like you know there’s no premium built in. But we also in all fairness, when we were trading up around here early this year, there was very little if there was more of a discount built in at that price point. And there was in the futures.
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So,
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But Cody’s gone at 225. Cheese. I think it’s it’s like I’m, I’m more I don’t know if I’m with you there just yet, but I definitely think I think you and I well, obviously you agree that this gap is going to go bad. So yes, I think so too. I think we’re going to go trader 190 product. And you know it’s right there in the barrel.
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Let’s go back real fast and see what that look like on this bad boy before we adjourn. And that basically takes you right back to former highs of the year.
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Right.
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Well 90 big price right I mean this this was a this was a price point on average that we could not sustain, not even for one one weeks. Close.
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We could do that in the next two days. Right. We’re five since way we did it today.
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And why not.
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Why not.
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Why not. All right. And then people. So let’s look at dicey. Let’s look at dicey. So next one let’s do dollar. We’re going do in the dollar. He’s he’s he’s got dollar signs in his eyes when he looks at 225 cheese.
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This came from Erica.
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This came from Erica.
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Oh man. Is that a bear flag. Is that two bear flags and 1 in 1?
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It very well could be I mean. Oh, boy. So it’s so it’s so interesting because this one, you know, we talk about like, you know, the ability of the market to go to 225 cheese and you know obviously exports are such a huge piece of our ability to really run higher. And as the dollar just continues to get pummeled, the prospect of that just gets better and better, doesn’t it.
00;10;41;17 – 00;10;44;20
Does my thinking about that right. Like the ipso facto like brand.
00;10;44;20 – 00;10;54;28
Rates on us, I think slow goes down. Exports are able. It doesn’t mean they have to able to go higher. And we taught you that. He taught me that like my second week working for got it.
00;10;54;28 – 00;11;27;09
So I was like that. Yeah there you go. Shout out right. I mean yeah, it’s very similar to what we looked at earlier. Right where you have Big Down day, the series of down days. Right. I guess the only difference is, is that the I think the biggest warning sign for would be in the next call it this is the daily next two sessions or so I think it’s going to be soon is if we were to get it close over that high and the fear that would be is it would actually I mean, if we can just kind of go look at the block real fast, what we just looked at like a fairly
00;11;27;11 – 00;11;47;06
like a rounding, this is a little bit this took a little bit longer obviously being a weekly, but you see that from time to time. Let me go back to the Edcs. So yeah, you get some sort of like a rounding. The first step of that would be, I think they call it a swing low. The first step would be you have to get back above a previous 2 to 3 sessions.
00;11;47;06 – 00;12;05;16
High. If you were to do that. I think this this turns back into a quick trip to 104 right back and all this one else where you have one on four. So it’s kind of like I said, it’s this does the next couple days here for the dollar will be really interesting for me.
00;12;05;16 – 00;12;12;13
Super interesting that RSI technically right now is in oversold territory. That’s right.
00;12;12;16 – 00;12;13;18
But working its way out of this.
00;12;13;18 – 00;12;14;29
All right I mean I had my lines wrong.
00;12;14;29 – 00;12;19;10
It’s actually no you’re right. It’s still it’s technically it’s still is.
00;12;19;13 – 00;12;20;01
Still is.
00;12;20;01 – 00;12;41;15
You can zoom in on this bad boy I think. Yeah. It’s still technically is oversold. So it could putter around oversold for a while. But it is kind of it’s starting to turn a little bit and so is the moment. What’s interesting about it too is that it’s been it has been negative for so long. And look at how far back that goes.
00;12;41;15 – 00;12;54;22
That goes back to what is it the start of the year. It’s been it has had negative momentum. But what’s interesting about this is that it’s failing to put in a new low.
00;12;54;24 – 00;13;10;03
Right there. So you’ve got some you got some warning signs here for the Dollar Bears right. Like you’ve got RSI that’s oversold starting to come back out of it. That’s a warning sign. You got momentum that’s failing to put in a new low. So okay there she is.
00;13;10;03 – 00;13;11;05
I see I.
00;13;11;05 – 00;13;12;13
See her. There she is.
00;13;12;15 – 00;13;14;12
The episode.
00;13;14;14 – 00;13;37;02
Yeah. So it’s failing to put in a new low. You’ve got the RSI that’s that’s now oversold but starting to come back. Money flow. It’s still kind of moving lower. But it’s just like the momentum I it’s just kind of getting this little rounder guy here. So I think I said I think if you got a close over this high in the next two sessions, I think by the end of the week, basically you got to get it close over this high.
00;13;37;09 – 00;13;51;13
I think you jeopardized kind of ripping back. And I think the big tell would be this is clearly trending lower. Let’s say you did that and then close through that. It could just turn into.
00;13;51;16 – 00;13;52;26
A real momentum swing.
00;13;52;28 – 00;14;09;10
It could be you could make and that could stifle, you know, going back to your 225 comment, you rip this thing right back and it you could start to kind of put a pause on exports, especially since, I mean, my gosh, the barrels went from like what, 155 to 190 like that. Yeah. Like you have a big adjustment in the dollar.
00;14;09;10 – 00;14;13;25
That could be. Yes. Remember Rice’s arrows.
00;14;13;28 – 00;14;14;19
Brian Rice.
00;14;14;19 – 00;14;32;15
There. Well this little dance that he does it’s like this that. All right. So anyways all right good ask this I think the next two days close you have to be really mindful of. And if not let’s say it doesn’t get it. Let’s say it doesn’t do that. And it just kind of peters around. Then that is like likely a continuation lower.
00;14;32;18 – 00;14;34;13
A just a steady decline.
00;14;34;15 – 00;14;48;09
Yeah. Yeah. So then like the next thing you know what to look for as a close. But like this, this is such a big session right here. You love it. Like what’s this low 9880. Yeah I’ll see. Yeah. Anyways last one from Bobby Lee.
00;14;48;11 – 00;14;49;18
Last but not least.
00;14;49;18 – 00;14;50;23
Lumber.
00;14;50;25 – 00;14;52;11
Bobby is trying to sell the house.
00;14;52;11 – 00;15;02;00
Wow. He’s trying to build a house. Good luck. Looks like lumber prices are coming off responsive for a while now. Yeah, I don’t build anything I don’t I don’t either.
00;15;02;00 – 00;15;04;05
I just look at the chart. They look expensive.
00;15;04;07 – 00;15;13;02
Huge lumber. Look at this thing. And we know a size of this thing, like, Yeah. Ouch. This week you’ve got.
00;15;13;04 – 00;15;16;20
Me? We’re at 570. I guess it’s the first thing you could say.
00;15;16;22 – 00;15;41;00
I mean, it’s a good spot, right? I mean, like, you get through that and this looks like it wants to go do that because you had obviously a double I think you can post a triple. Top came down hard gaps through it to try to get anything going and look at the sellers did the nice that I mean just click the next step just like, you know, hammered not today.
00;15;41;06 – 00;16;05;23
Sorry that happened in the day. And then you just continue to dribble lower. And now like what is this. So I mean really you gotta look at the 598 number. You get a closer to that. And it’s just like good night nurse. Here is it’s like yikes. 550 this is a weekly and it’s weekly. You know we always think about like the longer period, the chart, the greater emphasis you want to put on it.
00;16;05;25 – 00;16;30;13
Yeah. And so this being a weekly, all you got to do is sit here for the rest of the week and you’ve got to close below a trend that has been in place since mid July of last year. That’s that’s the weakness. That was the lumber. That’s so interesting too because like I had somebody talked about pseudo. They’re you know they’re looking at rebuilding all those houses and in LA right.
00;16;30;15 – 00;16;30;25
Yeah.
00;16;30;25 – 00;16;34;06
Like how much more it could end up costing them you know.
00;16;34;12 – 00;16;36;19
With the price. Right. Yeah.
00;16;36;21 – 00;16;52;11
Not a quarter in the futures market I wonder if that’s like I wonder if that’s like a thing where it’s like the that’s a super bullish piece of information for price in the futures are just like so we’re going down right I don’t know. Lumber looks weak I mean I guess at the very least if it’s going to break 598.
00;16;52;11 – 00;17;14;14
If it does we just looked at 550. It’s like the next going to target area. If this thing starts to go back up, what I would be concerned about is filling this gap. If we got a certainly if we get a close above this price. But even if like, let’s say you rounded back out and started to put in a series of higher or higher lows, I mean, think about that when I say that it’s like the whole saying number one.
00;17;14;16 – 00;17;25;19
Yeah, higher lows. You put in a series of higher lows here on sale to put it in obviously fail concurrently to put in a new low. Then this gap becomes a big target. And I don’t know anything. Like I said, I don’t know anything about below.
00;17;25;19 – 00;17;27;08
Knows a lot of volatility.
00;17;27;11 – 00;17;28;09
So bad about that.
00;17;28;11 – 00;17;29;14
All we know about is charts.
00;17;29;14 – 00;17;34;09
I can make bread. I mean I’m good at that. I don’t need a lot of bread anymore though. That’s the thing. Like I just don’t.
00;17;34;11 – 00;17;37;04
Any farm and CMT sourdough maker.
00;17;37;05 – 00;17;41;23
You know if you want me to make it, you know, yawn in our office. Dude, that guy makes some bread.
00;17;41;25 – 00;17;46;06
John missed his calling of being a baker. I will be honest. That guy could bake anything.
00;17;46;07 – 00;17;47;04
The guy bakes.
00;17;47;11 – 00;17;48;06
It is so good.
00;17;48;12 – 00;17;49;25
You’re going to be in town, so.
00;17;49;28 – 00;17;50;20
You know.
00;17;50;22 – 00;17;51;18
Give him a call.
00;17;51;20 – 00;17;52;13
I’ll say hello.
00;17;52;13 – 00;17;53;02
Get a love.
00;17;53;02 – 00;18;15;29
Nice boy. All right, well, that’s to do it for another episode of Tech Talk. Everyone. We appreciate you watching Erica, Bobby Lee and of course, Mister Chris, thank you so much for getting all of us for charts. If anyone else has any for next week, please let us know. We’d be happy to take a look at them, but until then, everyone have a great week, a great Easter, you have a great Easter, you have a.
00;18;15;29 – 00;18;17;25
Great Easter rampage. You have a great.
00;18;17;27 – 00;18;18;24
Year with friends and family.
00;18;18;24 – 00;18;22;02
Are you dying eggs or what’s the situation?
00;18;22;05 – 00;18;29;16
Well, I don’t think so. I’ll probably just hide in my house and not see anyone all day. But I don’t know. We’ll see. We’ll see you when the day comes.
00;18;29;16 – 00;18;37;14
You’re going to die. And that doesn’t preclude you from dying eggs, though. I mean, I mean, I guess if you’re gonna hide in your house by yourself, you will die some hard boiled some eggs and die hard boil.
00;18;37;14 – 00;18;39;15
Hide them in the trees, find them next year.
00;18;39;16 – 00;18;40;27
There we go. Happy Easter.
00;18;40;29 – 00;18;44;22
Happy Easter. All right, everybody, thanks for watching. See you next week.
00;18;44;26 – 00;18;45;04
Yeah.
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Headlines Cash Commentary By Jake KingsleyDirector, Feed Foundations Drought concerns … Read more
