Tech Talk – Market Gaps, Downtrends & Breakouts: What’s Next for Cheese, Cattle & the S&P? – April 23, 2025

April 23, 2025

In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody break down the latest market moves across cheese, cattle and the S&P 500 through a technical lens. From a dramatic downtrend rejection in the cheese market to the impact of upcoming federal order changes, we cover it all.

Is a breakaway gap forming in the S&P? Will we fill the cheese gap first—or are we headed for a higher low? And what about that elusive “triple top” in September cattle? We’re putting the charts under a microscope and mixing in a few laughs along the way.

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Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.
Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.

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Future trading involves risk and not suitable for all investors. Content provided in the site for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy, the chart wizard. Together with Paige we make up the tech talk trio. How are you doing?

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I’m good. How are you?

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I’m doing well. It looks a little dark in that home.

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You get it? Is there? Well, we get the, you know, the weather is making its changes. You know, like we were just talking. Paige and I were just talk. We outnumber you in terms of people that get headaches when, you know, the pressure comes and it’s like, just like.

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Or a metric.

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Pressure. Metric pressure. You got to get like one of those little things that like.

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Start calling you Al Roker. You’re pretty soon.

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You know, I gotta tell you, like the weatherman, like you, they don’t have to be right. And they just keep coming. Like, people just keep coming back for more and more and more.

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It’s that one job in this world where you just don’t get fired and you never right, is being a weatherman.

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Meanwhile, he’s going to sell tomorrow. Well, really it’s June. Well, whatever. How about that?

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Perfect.

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Do it. We’ll see you for the show at the same show tomorrow. Weather.

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Same time, same.

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Whether you like it or not. But I think.

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We got him.

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Open. Page is just like editing that one out. All right.

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So we had read no no one.

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Well we kind of had a request that we had had a request. We had one. We’re going to call it one. We’ll take one or no, this isn’t the one. But we definitely like this is one that has been obviously talked about quite a bit lately. And spot sheets. And I think we talked about this last week. Yeah.

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So we didn’t touch anything. And what’s interesting is we got right to this downtrend that we talked about. I so tried to get through it. I mean if you really look I mean like look at that bad boy. And that was in the barrel basically went and traded $1.90 and then promptly came back down. Went to this downtrend, failed and then gapped lower on one day.

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Today’s Wednesday right. All day to day it Wednesday Wednesday morning. So now it’s you know we talked about filling this gap which at what is this 179. You’re talking about another $0.02 ish just to fill that. That’s I mean we were there yesterday intraday and then came back unchanged basically. Right. So yeah I mean I guess my expectation is hasn’t changed here.

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Like I expect this gap to get filled. I’d be really wary of a higher low right. Unless there’s some crazy thing that happens or some sort of new news or, or a tweet away I guess. Who knows. But for now, I don’t really have anything to to change here. It’s just especially since we went right here now, I guess.

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Conversely, if we can’t even fill this gap and we go back and and close above this, this downtrend, then I think it’s a straight shot right here. 191 like okay. Yeah I think it’s a straight shot there because that’s I mean they think about it. But we always talk about like here’s this move started at 158 on average.

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Maybe it ended at once 84. We’ll see if that’s a big move. I mean it’s it’s basically the entire year’s worth of range. Right? Right.

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Pretty close. Yeah.

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Yeah. So to see like little to no retracement out of that and then go retest that high that would be pretty bullish.

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What do you think happens first a test of 170 or 190.

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Five is 170.

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Agreed I agree.

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And that’s so we still have that kind of drawn right here. Yep. Right. And again I can’t I mean I can’t emphasize that enough. I think the next what we’ll see is a higher low. So we don’t get back down in the low and 60s or, you know, high and 50s or something like that. It’s you know, we get down to like 171, 68 and people start out at it again, right.

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Futures are certainly saying that the case. Right. With cheese futures I mean late July basically $1.90 at this .23 at little over one 9191. So the futures market is telling us cheese is really valued somewhere up here.

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Right. So that’s that’s the interesting thing is like we’re not going to be able to look at this chart for very much longer. With the federal milk market in order changes in June. So this one’s going to go away. And we’ll be primarily looking at the block.

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Essentially we will be looking at the block. The bear will still be traded in my understanding of the exchange. But the class three futures contract will be the cheese portion of that formula will be the block. Yeah. So we’ll be looking at the block. But you know, it’s the only thing that’s constant in this life.

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Daily death and taxes.

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House message change. But you seem to want to be a little bit more like negative about it.

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So orbit on this Wednesday more.

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You’re like I’m not morbid Wednesday over here. Like it’s hump day. Then like whenever I drop my kids at school in the morning on Wednesdays, there’s a dude. And he always like the print plate. The vice principal only has like a camel hat. It’s like a big camel. And he walks around like like like like like my mike.

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If you remember that. Commercials.

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One of the greatest commercials.

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Yeah, he always does that stuff. And I always get a kick out of oh my K does. He says no idea what he’s talking about. That’s okay, I’m dead. So anyways, we’ll see. I mean, I think they gotta fill this gap. It’s not that much. It’s another two sets and then we’ll see if they can get it down here.

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But I definitely think if they do break it it’s high or low we’re looking at.

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Unless again one door once we the way.

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Sure something out. That’s who outs. So next one this one came at requests for Matt and certainly.

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Shouts Matt.

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Says even though says hey Zach, it really should say Hey Matt.

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It was this back turned out to Matt chart.

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Well it’s builds are going to get even worse. How about that? There you go. Let’s do this. Let’s wait it out a little bit. The question was are we about to see a triple top in September. Fears ways like.

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Well from when I started many many many years ago. You’ve always said that there is no such thing as a triple top. So I’m going to say no.

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Oh, what’s interesting about this is you had this big uptrend that really like it got tested one time right here. Closer it promptly like nope. And since then it’s just been a nice grind back to these highs. And this is just like the chart that just keeps like just keeps punishing the shorts. Yeah. Just punishes the shorts anytime anybody tries to short this market I mean we’re talking about all time record highs.

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Yeah this this these contracts. And so trying to pick a top here like I to me it’s like when I see this type of activity I’d be like I don’t want to sell that. No. You know it’s it’s it’s a tough ass to want to sell that right now. So it was this. Yeah. I mean, so that’s that high from that day is two 93.25.

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If you close above that high and open it higher the next day, even by a smidge, it could just be mean. You could turn into a ripper, right. Like you could end up seeing a candle like this. Yeah.

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Well, that’s why if you were short for a while there, you were pretty, right? I mean, literally for a week. But after that, the Bulls came back in and just.

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Took it over. Any time, any, anytime. This market shows any kind of weakness, which is just such a phenomenal sound, like, you know, strength. Right? And you look at some of the secondary stuff. Yeah. I mean look at this momentum here. When it’s higher. Right. And then this is the attempt to break through it. And it’s just like it’s it’s like peanuts man.

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This is nothing. And then now it’s back to being higher and it’s crossed over all this stuff. So the momentum is definitely very I’d say very positive. The money flow clearly broke out from this downtrend and is now just grinding higher. That looks good and there’s plenty of room here for it to before it gets into overbought territory right.

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Yeah I mean to me it’s like I think I think you’re going to go test this high. If you sail up against it probably get another test of this uptrend. But to me like the big like if you really want to talk about getting really short this market, I think you have to break these big uptrends. Right. And I think you could probably even extend this bad boy.

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We almost didn’t get that high today. I mean, I like our way. I prefer this one only because you had like, this move right here, right? But still, like this is a major uptrend. It feels a year to go test this for high. If you close through it. Especially with all this it could just get it could get dicey I mean you would be leaving a lot of selling behind right.

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Anybody that was short from basically the entire month of April is now almost underwater. I’m not quite but almost underwater. Right. So any selling that took place basically here and on their out money and that’s such a powerful like technical thing when you think about it. Right. Like and then you close it a new eyes that just really forces the issue.

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Yeah this one’s nasty. And then this one, I think you got to be super careful of a closing a new eyes. And then let’s just do you get a candle like this.

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I was like, watching this move daily. As we past couple times we’ve opened higher get towards noon. We kind of come off the the highs a little bit. But then in the afternoon towards the close it just it just keeps on rip. It just keeps on going.

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How much meat are you guys every just now I mean it’s just like you’re just just crushing burgers like every day.

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Like what? I think we’re talking about a day.

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Workers and.

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Yeah, I mean, with more people eating at home, right now, I don’t think I think Phil had mentioned it, that steak and burger is not off the table for people to buy. I it’s probably pretty good staple in the diet at this point for most for for sure.

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And things like shredded cheese to it. Don’t forget that. Yeah. There you go. It’s nice. Are sprouting right there. All right. Last one. Certainly not least I swear every day it’s got like a 100 point move. This is the S&P 500. And you think about like, so where it it right now it’s up 165 points right now and 100.

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And let’s let’s do the math on that real fast 165 165 times. 50 times 50 is $8,250 a contract. So if you divide that by 20, you get $4.12. 100 weight equivalent is what the S&P 500 has moved here today. Imagine waking up in milk is fun trading. You know, $18. You wake up, it’s at 22. That’s the equivalent moves.

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That’s crazy.

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It is nuts. Like but like I mean look at these candles. They’re just junk. I mean, these it’s just it’s hard to appreciate, like when you just look at it from like this standpoint this days, you know, this day massive this damn oh my gosh.

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A 9.5%.

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Good night. So this is what comes to mind when I see this right here. Right. High or low looks like a W. And you’re gapping away from it to right here. So you’re about to bump up against right here, bumping up against that and then closing above that, especially after putting that higher low and then gapping away from it.

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That’s a that’s a sign of strength. I mean, it’s not two ways about it. That is definitely a sign of strength. Right. And you have this kind of you have this downtrend that’s been established. I’d say this is probably in terms of like, you know, technically speaking, probably one of the best chances this has of breaking out of that high low gapping away from it.

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Now you’re up against it again. You got some potential to move here. Momentum still is lower. But it’s also it’s also put in a higher low. Yeah. And then money flow is starting to actually show us that more money is piling in from longs than shorts. Right. And or I should say one of these piling in on updates and days that were lower.

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So yeah, this this could get sneaky to I mean, there’s room for this thing to rally for sure. I think the big question is like, does it close above this horizontal line here that has been popping up against basically 5500? And then does it do that? Plus at the same time close above this downtrend. That could be you could make it kind of spicy or what strikes.

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Me at this point. Yeah. That seems to be the place to put your money go by. I’d rather see that gap filled first just so we don’t have to go back and, you know, find it at a later date because it’ll create more volatility and madness.

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But oh, I had so I remember somebody told us that gaps are unfinished business now in a market. They are unfinished business. So I agree that would be well actually no I’ll take that back. Oh how much I agree with that. If we’re going to get like I guess I would, I think if we’re going to get a really a nice run higher here, I think I’d rather see that be what’s called a breakaway gap.

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So breakaway gaps occur at the beginning of a new trend. And there a lot of times the signal of an end and then the beginning of a new one, and you’re breaking away from the current like move in this case lower.

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Just saying at that point, the gap does not have to come back, right.

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If it’s a true breakaway gap, you would look for them not to be filled.

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At any one monthly. No.

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You want to take a peek ski at the most like oh.

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Well look at that.

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Like oh.

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Yeah.

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We were talking about it before, like all the different, like fun management stuff that’s coming out here. It’s like, don’t look, everything will be okay. Don’t look at your stuff. Don’t look at it. It’s good advice. Still get it?

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Still don’t take a peek.

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Just don’t study that. So but yeah I mean daily I would I disagree with you I think this I think it would be better for this gap not to be filled. If you’re looking for this market to rally okay. So it’s just my $0.02 on it. But we shall see.

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Strong like bull.

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Just like milk or one trade away.

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We are one tweet away. So having this morning I literally happened this morning.

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It did happen this morning about that we.

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Are up 165 points.

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I gotta tell you. Like I gotta get my Twitter followers up. Well first of all I need to get the Twitter account and then I need to start tweeting stuff and get my yeah, my followers up so I can, like, step in and be like, look, Cody’s calling for a gap and go sparrows to also the like. And then my voice I gotta I gotta work on that.

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I’ll work on that this year as I work at it. That’s all we got.

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Awesome. All right. Well, as usual, appreciate your expertise on these charts. Matt, thanks for writing. In asking about feeder cattle, if anyone has any charts I wanna look at for next week, please let us know and we’ll be happy to take a look at them. But until then, that’s going to do it for the Tech Talk trio.

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We hope you guys have a great week. And even better weekends will be 80 degrees on Monday and we’re super excited.

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Bring your sunscreen.

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No more snow I’m pumped man.

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Oh don’t say that.

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Come up. Knock on wood. No, check that barometric thing you got going on.

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Check your barometric pressure because your pressure.