Rapid-fire market action, six charts deep, and no time to waste! In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody dive headfirst into the markets with insights on block cheese, butter, the US dollar, August Feeder cattle, and crude oil.
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Solicitation to buy or sell commodities. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk I I’m Cody, he is Andy and with Paige in the background, we make up the Tech Talk Trio. Coming to you live on this Tuesday the 13th of May 2005, just about for, well, a little past for Easter in the afternoon time, three year time.
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I’m pretty sure you’re 20 years short of the year. It’s 2025.
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2025. Sorry.
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Take me back to 2005 when, like the Motorola Razr came out and all that stuff.
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I was thinking of it. Good old days.
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Remember that phone? I think it was great. You flip it.
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You hang up on people and you make sure they hear it click snap, bring back the Razr.
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Bring it back, man. All right, anyways, we have a super special episode today.
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I think we got five requests. We have six total charts. Like this is the most we’ve ever had.
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I’m almost out of space on my post-it note.
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I’m on both side lists about.
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We’ve got to do somewhat of a rapid fire to. So let’s get rolling.
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This is rapid fire. Give me block.
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We’re going to do this in tandem with one of our requests that came from trucker Katy. What a great name. Trucker Katy. So see me block now remember for the June features forward it’s just going to be the block. So barrel’s going bye bye. You pointed this out last time I kept this here W formation trucker Katy wanted to make sure that we point out to this is this line right here this this green guy right there.
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That’s June futures June starts pricing next week. So here we are in the cash market. Here’s where the June futures are. What are your thoughts.
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Discrepancy good discrepancy. My first right spot goes up to meet 190 for June I agree.
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And what’s interesting is that you have the W formation playing out. We’re getting closer to the end of Q2 and in the summer. Here’s another thing to we want to make sure we point out here’s June cheese. Here’s like the rest of the world. Yeah. All right. Roughly in that area we just had that 60.
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Nice.
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Yeah I mean GD just printed $2.50 on a cheddar base. So here’s, you know, I mean, if you could see the kind of like it’s more like right here if you really want to average everything right. Fine. Here’s the rest of the world. Here’s GM cheese. Here we are. Interestingly enough, any time we try to get any kind of weakness out of this chart, it’s just it’s met with a lot of I’d say aggressive buying and futures are telling us that, you know, this should be higher.
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So I agree with you. You have the W plane out. You’ve got plenty of room to still go up on the on some of the secondary stuff too. Like I have this RSI up. It’s not overbought yet right. It has plenty to go before it’s considered overbought. So like to me I think if we were to cross over to I’ve got the 200 day this this isn’t a 200 day average.
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This is a 200 week average. This blue line right here. It’s struggle to maintain over that. Once you once you cross that threshold look at it each time. Just put. But and now it’s been bumping up against that. What’s interesting about this one is it if you keep bumping up against a price while keeping it like horizontally, so you just keep making higher lows like this seems to do a breakout here becomes more that much more significant.
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So okay, I agree with you, Jim. Jim is telling us that we’re going to we’ve got some more to go and let’s go take a quick look. We’re on rapid fire. Rapid fire. Let’s go take a look at GS for trucker Katie. What do you think your boss found?
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To your point, cheese was steady today. Black and barrel did not trade and June up. What do we up? Money I need right now. Very interesting.
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Little over a penny. $0.11 a hundred way equivalent.
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Very interesting. I think what’s you had made this comment to like the group yesterday of Friday. We had a big down day on Friday. Yesterday you recovered almost I we didn’t settle quite on the highs there but you almost engulfed yesterday’s candle and then today you made another jump higher.
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So we are trading a good point this June cheese down track. It’s trading above the Open on Fridays session. If you remember Fridays they beat it up quite a bit. And then on Monday here’s Monday. The block was down to see the cash mark goes down a lot. Four sets. Yep nearly $0.04. And here’s the reaction of the futures.
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Let’s go rally $0.25 100 late. And then another you know tended it. So the futures activity is certainly pointing to you know buyers and cash taking. That is more of an opportunity to own it. What’s so interesting about it too is that June doesn’t start. You know June starts pricing next week. Correct. So it’s not super far away.
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Right. But from a technical perspective, I think we got to be really mindful of are we about to see ways five which wave five is typically the exhaustion wave means you’re done. So you usually want to lay on it depends on where you want this is really start to break out for them. And you could argue that this really didn’t start to go until you got to like even here.
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Right. And so this could be even smaller. It again, depends on where you have this trend starting up. But even if you want to be more conservative about it, let’s just say it’s just a smaller one. Just lay that on top of where it breaks out from. That’s where you could prospectively go, which, you know, let’s say we go trade one nine, eight and a half.
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What would that take. Let’s say, you know, you think about like nasty premiums right. 4 to 5 minutes. Let’s say we go trade see me block at 183 184. And then the futures one I mean it seem to want to maintain a pretty healthy premium. So this isn’t outside of the realm of possibility for trade.
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The back of the rest of the curve is already up there. Darn near correct.
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Yeah. So it’s just super interesting that here’s here’s the session in response to lower cash and then unchanged cash that’s already well, discounted. And in all fairness, the block was offered at 180 the spot. So the response out of the futures market here today is to continue to move higher despite an offer in the cash market. I think that’s telling us what’s to come.
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We shall see.
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Trucker Katie is one of our favorite names on TikTok.
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I love it. We’re going to have to have her on as a guest. All right, so this one spot better. This one also came at request internally from Erica. I think a couple other clients actually ask about this one as well. So what’s interesting is the the futures market, it’s this is just it’s a very similar to the charts where the futures market is really starting to perk up at forward relative to the cash market.
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You look at the cash I drew this prior to this or taping right. This has been a clear downtrend. We’ve started to break out of it, but we also failed to get below all this noise. I think those are both warning signs. If you were short. Also, we got into oversold territory not once, not twice, but thrice here.
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Remember your classical literature, drag them thrice around. Try uppercase that.
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You know.
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I don’t.
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Never mind this whole reading thing I can doing books. Okay, so anyways, it’s been over to tried to be oversold a few times and now it’s climbing out of it and there’s so much room here to go. So the fact that it’s been attempted to be oversold came back out of it and is now clearly making its way out of it, and I think not quite, but it’s bumping up against this, this little top right here.
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If it breaks through that you got to be super careful here. But the futures again it’s just like cheese. The futures are telling us butter is going to be worth more than 235. So I just think it’s super interesting you broke out of this downtrend. You had all this noise over here. You couldn’t get through that right. And now you have some the secondary stuff like this momentum for example.
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Let’s just pull this bad boy up.
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The indicators are almost warning you on on a few of these charts.
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Correct. These sick these secondary indicators like this is a warning. Big warning right here. Crossing zero right here. This this has been negative all year. Yeah all year. And here.
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We go.
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So if this were a cross into positive territory that would be a huge warning sign for this. And it looks like it’s going to go do that. It’s quickly approaching it. So yeah I’d be very mindful. And let’s just do this real fast too. So let’s say we do start to get a little pop through 260. I mean that’s a number you got to be really careful about.
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That’s where I think we’re going to I think I think we’re due for something like that will pop through, take us to 260.
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So back back to the highs of it’s got.
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To making.
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For this year.
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Yeah I mean it’s got the makings for right. Broke out of the big downtrend consolidating. Now you’re you can’t get through all this noise right here. You’ve got it’s clearly getting away from being oversold and about to be positive potentially on a week to week basis. The momentum for the first time all year just has just got I think retracement written all over it.
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Agreed.
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Can disagree between two bears a bull between two bears. I love that episode name. All right rapid fire. Let’s keep going. Thank you Erica for the for the request. Keep them coming please. This one came with two came from whisker Phil whisker.
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Phil. He doubled up this time. US dollar important chart here. A lot of people they’ve been talking about this one outside of the realm of dairy. Big export mover here.
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Who’s there by the way. Is it like the editorial.
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Week the editorial week man.
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Also movies from.
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Big Lebowski.
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Okay, so the Royal Way has been talking about the US dollar for a while now. Yeah, super interesting though. Like you know this is again a weekly. Yeah. This bounce here. You had it here. Try to get through it again. Fail to do it like this. Looks like a bear trap right here. What do you think.
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Yeah. Put in some lows I, I guess I’m looking at a as a daily real quick. And you almost. Yeah. You engulf yesterday’s candle. Not quite to the tea but it’s not it’s still not looking very bullish right now.
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I don’t know I’m going to have to I may have to agree to disagree on this one.
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Okay.
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This one I think. Yeah I think it’s got a little bit of a trap. Obviously we’ve talked a lot about like you know we look at cheese and it’s you know its ability to move higher cannot continue to do so at like the pace we’ve been exporting at should react to the US dollar move back into like this upper end of the range.
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That’s certainly a big warning sign for our ability to export right isn’t it. Invert. Invert is related. Invert levered inverted.
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Exact like up.
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Down one goes up one goes down. We’ll see. I mean like I think this is I think this could be a perspective that bear trap. But there’s so much there’s so much like geopolitical stuff going on that too. It could be one tweet away from the dollar retracing lower again. We’ll see. I don’t know. But if you just look at it technically.
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Way.
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I think you got to be super careful of this being a potential bear trap. It was here. It did it. It tried again here. Failed. Just seems like anytime you get to 100, this market doesn’t sit still. It just does not consolidate around 100. It it just rips away from that price a great. Conversely, though, if we were to start to trade like 95, that could be a real warning signs at this one to to really fall apart.
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So how this acts around a dollar, I think we’ll tell you the next like five call it basis points from say that.
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Which could have an effect on. I think it’s a cheese like we were just talking about for sure.
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And I think that’s going to be up for now. So we shall see. There you go. We’ll see. You’re thinking it’s down. You’re thinking it’s gone down.
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Though right I do I think the dollar is going to break.
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All right. So this one also came at response from Cisco fell crude oil.
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Got that WW.
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It’s not a it’s not a true W I’d love to see this be a higher low right I’d love to see this price action happen above this one. But I’ll take what I can get. This looks like a great W. And this looks like it wants to extend itself back up to the 70.
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You do a lot of hunting.
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Do I do a lot of hunting?
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You’re doing a pretty good job of shooting down all my ideas. The.
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The saying anywhere.
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You know, that was really well executed. By the way. What? What’s your idea? Hit us with your idea.
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I just I mean, I think it’s a little bit of a w formation here. Going back maybe to 72 a barrel.
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I just said it was going to 70. That’s enough shooting a hole in your idea.
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Okay. I wanted to w when you said maybe not so much. I just that’s the first thing I heard. And I didn’t say.
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No, no, no. I said I would have liked to, I would have liked to have seen it being this, this price action being above here.
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I see what you’re saying.
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Low, I think you’re saying. But I’ll take what I can get, that this is a clear w. What are you talking about? All right.
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Anyways, needless to say, what’s bullish? I’m, on the crude, I would agree. Dinosaur cells.
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Correct. So dinosaur bones look good. The momentum, the momentum crossed positive for the first time in a while. Right. But also what’s interesting, too, is that you’ve you have this failure to get oversold and you have all this room to go. And also what’s interesting about especially some of these larger macroeconomic markets, look at how quickly the market rips through that price or that that area.
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A lot of times when you get back into those types of like, you know, big movement areas, you you ripped, you go just as quickly through it. Right? I’d be I would be I wouldn’t be surprised if you had this type of price action to the other way, maybe not to this degree, but get like a couple candles like this one, 3 or 4 of them in a row and you’ve just retraced all this.
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Okay.
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So we’ll see. But this this looks good. It’s got all the hallmarks of like, let’s just go take this back to this former high where we broke down from. All right, last but not least, rapid fire.
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Our good friend JB are coming back.
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Taking us home with JB bath. I mean.
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Well, let me ask you what everyone has asked me for the past three weeks. Where do you step in to sell feeders?
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Same response I have.
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I don’t know what to say to that, because any any attempt to try to sell this market has just been brutal.
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Yes.
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So when when we had that open on yesterday afternoon or yesterday morning, excuse me. And you had that news from the USDA?
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Yeah.
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I was wondering if this was going to be it if we were going to have like an island reversal where you have like the gap, it has kind of like a, like a hammer almost. And then you gap and you opened lower the next day and you just have this like kind of like unfinished business gap and look it up.
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Island reversal. They’re usually a great indication of a trend changing hands. But today’s price action in response to yesterday’s session is it’s I just I don’t see any reason selling.
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It’s not bearish.
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Now you you open I mean look at this. This is all time record high right here. And that’s the best the bears can dip after all this and that. Not just that but after all this. That’s the best they can do is just just retrace a little bit of that so the weekly could prove it. Let’s say we really start to fall apart.
00;14;42;24 – 00;15;02;12
The weekly could prove to be an island reversal. And if that is the case, then you probably should be looking at getting short. So the daily not so much. You kind of missed that opportunity on a daily basis, but on a weekly. Yeah. Let’s say again look up island reversal. It’s certainly possible if you kind of close on like towards the lows of the week.
00;15;02;14 – 00;15;24;05
So have kind of like an inverted hammer and then open the next week lower than that. That would be a big indicator of like, yikes. Especially if you can open what is this? What is. So this one’s high for the week is two 98.5. If you could open next week at two 98.5 and basically leave that gap there.
00;15;24;07 – 00;15;28;02
That would be a I think that would be there would be time to sell.
00;15;28;05 – 00;15;49;17
Their is up. Okay. I think yeah. That’s good. I mean if you look at the daily, we hit 295 twice. And what what’s the old expression. There’s no such thing as a triple top. For that or that. And everyone’s like, okay, Jeff, you sell at 300. Well, I mean, okay, we get through 300 and here we are.
00;15;49;19 – 00;16;07;07
Right? I think you have to be late. To me, you need, like, a major reversal pattern, an island reversal. That’s what I was thinking. I’m like, this could be it. This, like, you could see an island reversal here. And if that was to happen, is like. And I don’t doubt that there wouldn’t be a significant amount of folks that would want to pile into the short side here.
00;16;07;07 – 00;16;24;16
I feel like people have just been chomping at the bit to find a way to sell what is all time record highs, but you need something like that. You need some major reversal. Patterns take place that people can feel confident about because there’s been so much just, you know, attempts to sell it. Look at this, look at that.
00;16;24;18 – 00;16;26;11
Yeah. Out.
00;16;26;11 – 00;16;27;10
So just.
00;16;27;13 – 00;16;38;24
With. Yeah with you looking at the weekly just to kind of hammer home your island reversal. We would want to wait till Monday morning for an open to see if we truly fall lower on that open.
00;16;38;27 – 00;16;45;14
Do you want to see. You want to see us close. Yeah. Close this week. Closer to like this week’s open. Right.
00;16;45;16 – 00;16;46;10
00;16;46;13 – 00;17;04;12
So what price would that be. 301. You’d want to close close to that. 301. So just kind of have this like flat body and like a large wick on top. And then open the next week around 298. So you you gap you gap up and then you get back down.
00;17;04;15 – 00;17;05;06
Okay.
00;17;05;08 – 00;17;21;19
If you were to do that, that would I think would be a huge indicator that this market’s getting ready to roll over or at least retrace some significant portion. And again like what’s with what feels like folks looking to like chop up bit to sell this market? I think you get a lot of people are just like pile on and you get some pretty aggressive price action.
00;17;21;21 – 00;17;22;25
So
00;17;22;28 – 00;17;26;10
With that good luck on that one.
00;17;26;12 – 00;17;27;05
Yeah.
00;17;27;07 – 00;17;43;15
I’ll leave it. I’ll leave that to you. But that’s all we got. We have what, one two, three, four, five, six charts today. Rapid fire. 1234. Five of them came at request. One of them was the block that didn’t come at request. We’ve had a lot of people asking about it though, internally. So I’m going to say everything was came a request.
00;17;43;18 – 00;17;50;01
We appreciate everyone contacting us. Six charts. That is that is a personal record for you and I on TikTok.
00;17;50;03 – 00;17;51;18
Rapid fire.
00;17;51;20 – 00;18;06;12
You’re actually going to be gone next week. Some of us are away on vacations. We will be not making a show next week, but we will be back the following week to check on a few of these charts. If anyone has any requests at that time, please get Ahold of me. Your I and we would be happy to look at them.
00;18;06;16 – 00;18;11;07
Until then, have a great week and even better weekend and we’ll see you towards the end of May.
00;18;11;09 – 00;18;11;28
See at the end of May.
00;18;12;03 – 00;18;14;29
Because we look at this, you.
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