Tech Talk – Block Cheese Breakout, Class III Momentum, Corn Weakness – May 29, 2025

May 30, 2025

In this Tech Talk, Andy and Cody take a look at three key charts: block cheese futures hitting new highs, July Class III testing trend support and corn continuing its slide. We’ll break down what’s happening, what it could mean, and what to watch heading into next week!

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Future trading involves risk and not suitable for all investors. Content provided in the site for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy with Paige in the background. We make up the tech talk trio. Today is Thursday. We’re actually recording this on Thursday the 29th of May. It is probably 215 Central Time right now.

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Sure. All right. Did you, do you wear a bandana earlier or.

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I asked no. So what happened is, Saturday, I was helping my neighbor build a fence. It was overcast. There was no sun then, like, I need sunscreen, I got burnt. Thank you for bringing that up.

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Know how the fence turn out? It was.

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Really good. It’s a nice fence. A little white picket fence. We got it all done, set up. And then I realized that I burnt myself. I never learned.

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That’s really nice of you. So is this the same neighbor that you shoveled her driveway and stuff?

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Yeah. Yeah. They needed some help. They weren’t quite sure what to do. And so I just went over there, helped them for a few hours, didn’t think about it. The sun never came out every year, man, I burned my head at least once.

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What are you going to do?

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I look ridiculous, so.

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That’s really impressive that you can build a fence.

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Anyone know if it needs a fence? Bill, just give us a call.

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You should tell them about the drywall you put up in my garage.

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That was years ago. It’s still standing to this day.

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It is still standing, well insulated. The whole thing, the whole thing.

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Well, we’ve got, three charts today.

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We have three charts today. One came at request. Yep.

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Our good buddy Jay bar.

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We’ve also got a couple here too. That seems to come up more and more in conversation with customers internally, etc..

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This one is very important. Actually. The block.

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So we switched to. We are now officially block only right? For class three we were a barrel, block, lock, barrel, whatever. Whatever floats your boat in terms of how you want to say it. Yeah, they’re all gone though. So yeah here’s it’s just block only what a chart this looks like. Look at this W how about that. Then we talk about this and we talk about this like right here.

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We did w.

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Completing

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Two weeks ago when we talked about it. And we were talking about the W formation. And then today. So today is Thursday. We’ve got one more trading day tomorrow. But I guess here’s my question is where a quarter of a cent higher on the high than we were last week. We engulfed that wick. If we settle here, then we have the highest settled block price since October, right?

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Yeah. This it wouldn’t be here because this is 88, 75. It would be right here. One 9475 you are correct. Just like the very beginning of October. New high settle for the year for the block, you know, weekly basis.

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Here’s my question. Because we engulfed last weeks that wick pretty much. And if we settle here tomorrow, we’ll say we don’t move. That would be a bullish transition for the block. And right now we’re at one 9475.

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Correct. So last week’s high was 194 or 75 here we are 194 or 75 or the high 195 for the week. Yeah, I would agree. I mean it’s hard to argue that this that like you’ve had obviously a nice w take shade. We’re in a new highs for the year. Highs here in this line right here. Mainly because that’s basically your futures are telling us the block can go.

00;03;04;26 – 00;03;19;15

For a long time now the futures have been saying the block is going to go in the new highs for the year. And it’s not just, you know, like the front months. Yeah, right. It’s been basically every futures contract for the rest of the year except for the December which is always a let you know. This is always a bit of a pig.

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Right. So yeah, I mean, it’s hard to argue that the way, you know, not only the futures, but then now you’ve got Friday, Friday, last week session really this downtick was off Friday.

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Correct. Yeah.

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Yeah. Right now we were down like eight or something like that. But what’s so interesting about that is but not so fast. I mean, it was a long weekend, right. So Tuesday by two by Wednesday afternoon basically really Tuesday. But by Wednesday we had basically retraced all of that and then some. What that tells me is that this market certainly doesn’t like the low 190.

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You need be there for a day.

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No. Well, even today I mean futures. And we’re going to look at July here at a second. Futures down pretty hard in June and quarter three. But that was only mean we are still higher on a cheese price than we were yesterday because the barrel is actually correct. So it’s crazy.

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What’s interesting to me about this is that you’ve got some room. So here is RSI. It shows a it’s trend. It’s got a nice uptrend to it. Yep. And that there’s still plenty of room before it’s you know overbought momentum turned positive. Tried to go back to being negative. This is basically late last week. Yeah and to no avail.

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Popping right back up. That’s a sign of strength I mean so you have these secondary indicators that are telling you that this is strong. Plus overall just the formation itself looks pretty good. And it has been very resilient. Yes. So Friday tried to break. Nope. Not not happening.

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Another interesting caveat to this. And we don’t have it pulled up. But the the CFTC report of the logs and shorts we actually flipped last week from being more net short positions to more net long positions in class.

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Three for this back.

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For the spec for the speculators, which I which I found was very interesting. So that brings up the question. You have the line. The green line at $2 is $2. Probably the next magnet on this block chart.

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It sure feels like it. And I think you got to be we’re going to look at July features in a 2nd July class. Last. You had to be a little bit careful because every time July tries to roll over comes back. But yeah it’s to me, I think if you’re going to get the next move in the futures market to the upside, this has to go close.

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I think it has to go wrong. The $2 bell opening, it’s got to go do it.

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Got to do it. So tomorrow while that tomorrow.

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But yeah I mean I think it takes a shot at it. Right. It’s if to me it’s like if it if it can’t hear from this point then you’re likely going to go at least go test this. You know, this is a long term 200. That’s a 200 week average. So I think you would essentially go and test that at least.

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But again like the market really struggle. I mean it just it was there for one day like last this candle last week. This was all Friday. There was basically a call that Fridays candle. Yeah. But immediately that’s that’s a sign of strength. This attempt to break an immediately rejecting it the next day. That is a clear sign of strength.

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And so now you’re here and assuming we settle here higher, tomorrow will be in the new highs on a weekly basis.

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So even an open close tomorrow, no movement is still a high on the weekly chart going back to last.

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Oct, October, October. That’s right.

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So okay.

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Yeah. To me, that would be another sign of strength. Yeah. I do this line here because this is basically where the futures would be kind of pointing in here, a front coming in in the summer months. I mean like it just I, I don’t know, I don’t think you can count out going to go trade two bucks.

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I mean I don’t want to get too excited.

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Feel like the market has been I know I think the market has been fighting that for a while now and but still like it’s the resilience here out of the cash market has been really impressive. So I think you have to be respectful of that. Let’s take a quick look.

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Or Google on.

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What’s so interesting about it is the futures here. We know we talked about how some of this like the secondary stuff was looking good for the block. It certainly isn’t looking that way for July. Yeah. Money flow index and starting to roll over. So is momentum is. Well I want to say about momentum I mean it’s into new eyes.

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But the RSI is taking a couple shots at overbought. And now coming back down into it. So there’s room to break. They’re still you’re in an uptrend aren’t you. It’s close. It’s close. And it depends on where you want to draw it I mean if you want to use the wicks you’re still got some room. It’s still technically in an uptrend I don’t think I mean to me it’s like I don’t want to get overly short that until you’ve broken this long term uptrend.

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No, it’s every time. Yeah. Every time you take a shot trying to sell this thing I just you know I mean look at this.

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It works for two days. That’s about it.

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Look at that. Can’t bam on a bam. Yeah. Oh nope. Not today. So we’ll see. I mean there’s been several attempts for this market to try to roll over and to no avail. Well, it could be. I think it does. Now for this, let’s say you rally back and let’s say they do go wrong. Two bucks for cheese and we rally back and you fail to put in a new high here.

00;08;04;12 – 00;08;22;09

We’ll use that close or they open on that. Excuse me to 2020 for July. So you go trade 2015 and then come back down and break this trend. Bearish lower lower high right right. That would be I think that would be probably somewhat of it. Not today I don’t know if I want his or death knell just yet but that would be pretty bearish right okay.

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So I think you got to be careful here. Solid though like I said I mean every time we you know it’s punch through this try to and this this day I remember this day this was I believe a Tuesday. Yeah.

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Yes it was that.

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Was yeah that was good Tuesday. She had the big downtick futures were you know they beat them up pretty good down like 40 precast or something. Yeah. Game just ripped right back.

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So you know I remember on that day everyone kind of thought it was a head and shoulders pattern. And the party was over. And then literally the next day we were up what, $0.60.

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$0.63.

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Very close. Just I back just like that because I was I had somebody call in the other day and we were looking at July and he’s a do you think it’s AA5 the Elliott theory five weeks I sort of draw it out and like oh it.

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Could be.

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But it depends where you want to draw it from. I was drawn it from the gap at $18 up. But to your point, if we don’t sustain this break that we saw yesterday and today, then that that’s out the window, I think it can’t break. There’s no wave to it.

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Correct. Yeah. No, I agree again if you want to try to pick a top go for it. This I feel like this market is getting beat up trying to trying to fight this rally here.

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And yeah futures came back towards the close this afternoon also a little bit.

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I think you get to break this long term uptrend. Before you talk about getting aggressively short. It really do. There’s a bit of a premium. So you got a little bit of a lead. But we’ve seen how quickly you know the block was down eight close to $0.08 on Friday. And within two days it’s got all that back.

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And then so so it’s not like this market can’t move a nickel on the spot basis pretty quickly. And now remember it’s only the block. So it’s not like they have to move the barrel and the block a nickel to get it to move $0.50 100 like correct. So it’s a different it’s a little bit of a different ballgame here.

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Did it is the same trades but it technically doesn’t matter in the pricing.

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Correct. So yeah. But it’s I think if you want to get overly short here July class three this this uptrend has to be respected. So until this is you know you get a close through it open lower. Maybe you miss you know you’re missing the initial part of it. But that’s what I think you have to do because I think this this the way this has been trading it’s been so respectful of this uptrend.

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Yeah. So all right last one certainly not least this one came an official request. Our friend Jay Bar our good buddy Jay bar corner corn. What do you think your boss.

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Calls looking like bearish. Every time we get that rally.

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Bearish it.

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Cannot sustain.

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Yeah it’s hard to argue with you.

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I guess if you want to be bullish and you want to get long this contract you know you’re wrong. At $4 for 2421.

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This is us going to say the exact same thing right. So you start talking about your low.

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Yeah your nine.

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Cents worth on it. Yeah. So if you were looking for a spot to try and take a shot up in long and you go test for 20, you got a pretty tight stop knowing where you’re wrong. Yeah. To your point, I guess if I was looking for a spot to get long, let’s take a look at some scenarios.

00;11;23;17 – 00;11;39;23

You’ve got quite the long term. Depends on what you want to use. Do you want to use the opens or like the the body of the of the candle? I my preference is the body of the candle not the wick okay. But either way. So I use the body body. And the next touch point is is this wick.

00;11;39;26 – 00;12;04;05

But it also I want to respect these guys right. So you have this long term downtrend. Even if you bump this up to here it’s still a long term downtrend. Doesn’t really matter that much right. So I guess like the question that I had is do you fail to put it in a new low and then bump up against this again, because that would be a sign of a pending strength.

00;12;04;08 – 00;12;14;14

It would be a downtrend that is losing steam, so to speak. And if it can’t put it in a new low and then it goes and breaks through this, you could get a pretty wicked retracement.

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So you just pretty much making a wedge.

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Yeah. Exactly. Yeah 50% retracement. If you weren’t able to get through this I don’t think that would be difficult. Right. So I think you got to be a little bit careful wanting to get short here. You’ve had a significant break. It looks weak. I’m not going to disagree with you. But you’re also coming up against again like if this downtrend can’t continue, that’s a big warning sign because it’s going to bump up against this guy again.

00;12;39;08 – 00;12;57;13

And it’ll do it well. It’s ups and downs. I’ll probably get a bunch of this, but it’s going to be like slowing down. It’s a rate of change in terms of its break. Well we’ll start to really like decelerate right. And what’s interesting about it too, when I, when I say that the momentum watch it, this looks weak.

00;12;57;15 – 00;13;17;15

The downward momentum is clearly climbing back to arched. Yeah. Not it’s not even yet. But this is not being respected as much because it’s retracing this big abrupt rally. I think it’d be a little bit careful here if you’re short, probably looking for spots to at least, you know, like hedge off gains or speed, buy calls or something.

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And if you’re looking to get short, it’s like, okay, but if you can’t get to for 20, I, I want to have a plan to get out of this thing.

00;13;24;26 – 00;13;26;02

Listen. Yeah.

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Conversely, if you’re looking to get long, you need you get down to 420 and you’ve got a great out. I mean, it’s a very like you’ve rates it for 20 closing and new lows. It yikes. Like it’s ugly.

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I mean look how many times we’ve rebounded off of 425 even for 20 it the market just does not like just be down there and hold a hold the pattern.

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You know what.

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Even my monthly.

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It’s I was just.

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Yep. There you go.

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Monthly. It doesn’t look great. This. Oh what if what if you put in a higher low on this thing. Let’s get down. So let’s get take a look at the forecast at 429 where we talked.

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About you bring yourself down back at $4. Yeah.

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What I think what if you fail to get down below. Like what if he failed to get here. Come down here. Momentum crosses positive. He got a lot of room to prospectively retrace, don’t you?

00;14;19;04 – 00;14;19;21

Six.

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Yeah, yeah. What if what if we went to $6 corn on a wild Jim? Just like he just had a shudder. Wherever he is in the world, the $6.

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Didn’t want to hear that. Ooh.

00;14;32;14 – 00;14;37;04

Okay. Okay. Well, well, how about we end on that one? Like, a perfect outlook all the day.

00;14;37;06 – 00;14;53;21

Awesome. All right, a big shout out to Jay Bar. We appreciate you right now. If anyone has any for next week, please let us know. We had one this week. Really good. Good discussion. But until then, appreciate everyone tuning in. If you have not subscribed already to the average channel, please hit the subscribe button. The notification bell.

00;14;53;22 – 00;15;00;15

Give us a thumbs up if you like the channel. And we will try to bring the same kind of excitement next week.

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That sounds good. Anyway.

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So until then, everyone have a great weekend. Great start to your week. We’ll see you next time.

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And if you need a fence.

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You need a fence. Give us a.

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Call.