Tech Talk: Block Breakout, Cheese Rally and Bean Oil Slide – August 5, 2025

August 8, 2025

The team digs into three hot charts—block cheese, nonfat dry milk, and soybean oil—spotting volume shifts, testing key trendlines, and debating breakout potential. From choppy blocks to tightening soybean oil, it’s a fast-paced, data-driven look at what could come next in the markets.

Charts sourced from Ever.Ag platform.

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Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.

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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is, and it is the 5th of August, just about 3:00 central time, 4:00 eastern on this beautiful Tuesday afternoon. And how are you doing?

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It really is beautiful. I’ll tell you what was cool though. We had a Nerf gun party on Friday for my kid’s birthday. Oh that’s right, 20 Nerf guns and like 500 darts and like a barrel that they use like, like, it’s crazy. It was crazy.

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It sounds like a lot of fun.

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I know, that’s what I’m saying. Like, I think you’d I think you would enjoy it. Like, I could see you with, like, two Nerf guns just out there. Maybe. Maybe it might sound.

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Like a great time to be.

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Added anyways.

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All right, well, let’s go over these charts. We got three charts. We’ve got two requests.

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We do have two at request. And you know what? I’m just going to say it. Let’s say this third one is also a request because it certainly has come up in conversation a lot. That is true. Over the last couple like week and a half and it seems to be like the one market, not one, but it seems to be the one market that people are asking the most about.

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And that is the key block market. Yeah. What price is all this stuff on the class three basis? At least this is what we got on a weekly basis. Oh my gosh Cody, get your hammer. Let’s go. Now do you have the hammer gaps.

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Gaps on gaps.

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Do you have the hammer?

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I do, yes.

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Is it handy?

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The block. Is it by hanging out?

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Boom. Yeah. I mean, this is this is I mean, this is phenomenal. When you look at like this W right. Made a higher low technically. Yep. At a nice it’s we’re making this w gapped away from it. You have this gap that it’s looking to probably to go fill. What is this 184 ish. And then it’s a question of like do we get back up to these former highs.

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Which is like roughly like 190. We never actually had a close. What is this close right here. 194 and change. We’ve had a 195 print throughout the week. We’ve never actually seen a 195 close. So right. Any close 195 or better. And teachers, they’re not there yet, but they certainly are on their way up there. When I look at like the cheese equivalents.

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Right, I think October’s highest nearly at 192. So futures are certainly telling us that there’s more strength to go even from this price. And the chart certainly is suggesting that too, I don’t know. Is there anything you said gaps on gaps on gaps. And then you what do you think in your boss.

00;02;20;26 – 00;02;39;17

Yeah. First thing that stuck out to me was that W and then the gap that we had been talking about for seems like weeks on end there you have circled with dollar $82.82. I wouldn’t even go test the old high dollar 92, you know, 94 ish area. And then it’s going to be a question of, okay, what time frame is that?

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What are we going to do with the market once we’re there?

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And I’ll say this. So we talk a lot about things like volume. I’m going to take this one away and I’m just going to go like this. We talk a lot about like things like volume confirming price action or lack of volume failing to confirm price action. Right. And so in this case, I think we if you believe in that, that that like applies to the spot market, then I think that is certainly true for the CME block market.

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Because if you look at over the last course of the month or the month of July, we had significant amounts of volume on a daily basis where, you know, we we, you know, can’t bounce within like a 3 or 4% range. But for the most part, like we were like the big story seemed like it was just like.

00;03;24;22 – 00;03;41;03

So I was like, geez, every day we’re treating, you know, ten, 12, 15 loads. So my point with that is, is that when you get that type of volume and, you know, high volume, whatever the product is in this case, you know, ten, 15 loads a day for the same spot market is is a lot when you start to get that type of volume and then move away from that price, you’re confirming that move.

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And so I think what we’re seeing here is a lot of volume changing hands, confirming this new direction and price. And you know, the same would have certainly been true. Let’s say we traded a boatload here and then, you know, like invert these candles. So now we’re at like 150, you know, one whatever the number is. That would certainly like lend credence to the break.

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But in this case it’s the opposite. We’ve seen this big pop. It adds a ton of credibility to it.

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My question is do we get to $1.90 and just trade this range of $1.90 $2, 60 like we’ve done for the past 18 months? It seems like it’s a good point.

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It’s oh, I could point to a question. Right. And I guess the first step is we need to go get to that price right. It feels like we’re going to go test the upper end of the range given the volume. Given what teachers are doing this time of the year, what do we just we just posted like our another record month of cheese exports today.

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How many record we did we had this year by the way. It’s we’ve had a few.

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This is a this is one in a row.

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I feel like it is. I’m sure we can dig that out I guess. But like at the end of the day, I know, I know, this isn’t the first record an all time new all time record high that we’ve had this year. This year. Right? Yeah. My point is, is that like this, this, this price point domestically on the spot market plus international like it generates a lot of business.

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And so it’s such a key area. And to your point, the question is what do we do when we get back up in here? I think the futures will be a really excellent guide for that. You know, let’s say you get to like two, you know, 195 and teachers kind of just need to start doing one of these numbers.

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Right. That’ll I think that’ll be really great. But I mean look at the way the futures have been acting here. You know, they’ve been September especially. It’s just been leading the way just really, really accelerated here the last couple of days. So yeah I mean this this looks like it wants to go test the upper end of this and let’s see what happens I agree we bring that $2 billion.

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What a great.

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It’s been elusive. It’s been it’s been elusive. It’s been it’s been elusive. You don’t get to use that word a lot either. So I like I could throw it in there elusive. It’s been there. All right. Should we go to the next one. It’s relevant to this here.

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Let’s check it out.

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This came at request.

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Check it out.

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Got this. Chase as a pack. And so you know we a lot of times we look at like yeah we look at individual months in this case this is you know this is each an average of arc. Nobody’s just a simple average. And we like to use the average of the individual contracts rather than. So the CME has its own actual spread where you know, you put an order in.

00;06;04;05 – 00;06;23;22

It would be like Dq’d 25, call it three M and it’s basically you put an order and you can actually put an order. You have to buy one. You’re going to get all three or sell one. And so all three in this case this is the same for the individual months. Correct. I think this is a little bit better because it it like it this this encapsulates the days trade for each month.

00;06;23;25 – 00;06;43;06

Whereas the pack would only look at if the pack traded itself. So sometimes you can have no volume in the pack but have hundreds of contracts trade in the actual individual months. So the preference would be and this was this, this actually came as part of the request. The preference, in my opinion at least, would be to look at this individual months divided by three.

00;06;43;14 – 00;06;50;16

Or if you’re looking at subsidies divided by four, you know, we can get into the whole math by the this looks good, I don’t know, what do you think.

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If you draw a downward trend. Have we quite broken it? I don’t think we have on from July.

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Right here.

00;06;58;22 – 00;07;10;13

On. Yeah, yeah yeah. There. I mean we definitely have them there. It still looks strong. I mean as at 4 or 5 days of continual upside movement it’s not. Yeah. Bearish.

00;07;10;16 – 00;07;28;08

Yeah. So to your point it made this double. It made this double top right here right here and then here. And so you start the trend right there. Right. So it has quite a bit more to go to the UPS and on that quite a bit I mean what is this double 18. Double 1855. This is roughly 18.

00;07;28;11 – 00;07;40;13

So another $0.20. And you’re bumping up against this trend. Let’s stuck out to me when I first when we pulled this up was this area right here once again acting as support 18 bucks.

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And I know this this isn’t quite $18 right here. It’s pretty close. But for the most part, you know, $18 seems to be a pretty nice number where this thing really wants to start to go. I think the big test will be whether or not we could break. To your point, this downward trend is it is downward trend for sure.

00;07;58;10 – 00;07;59;19

No.

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If we think about 18.

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Yeah, it’s more like 1875 right here. So this this line right here is like going 75. You just draw that for you. Yeah I am so yeah I mean if we believe that the block is a buy which we do and that like the block has the potential to go trade 195, maybe even two blocks, dare I say it.

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Did I say there there. Yeah, 1875. I mean, if it goes and touches this price and it starts to break through it, I mean, it can really accelerate. Then the next test I think would be right here where it, where the downward trend began.

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Okay, okay.

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And then I think you can make the argument, you know, 19.5 is really where this this was 2024, Q4, 2024 when this was trading. I doubt there was a ton of volume there. Not much open interest. I think this is the relevant price point. So 1875 and then this call it 19. Did you get through both of those.

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And it could just be like be like a rocket ship. All right. So last one came a request internally. What do you think it’s oil.

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Well I thought getting short soy oil, when we had that well, I thought was going to be the information on the third, second, 3rd of July was the right idea. Fell apart a little bit. And then right here. Pletely. Yep. Kept rallying and making new highs. But this is the first time that we’ve actually seen quite a bit of pullback on this chart.

00;09;23;00 – 00;09;41;02

I mean look at the there’s a massive gap that I at that point had assumed was going to go get filled with the information. You know, you made a you made a lower high and then started a downward trend. And then all of a sudden I don’t know something came out around 53 right there. But we had three days in a row or you bounced off of it and just kept rolling this thing higher.

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So I would imagine only a dollar away from it right now. You go test 53 one more time, and if you can break through that, I think you probably get a pullback to the $5,049 range out.

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Imagine so.

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Okay. Dollar. So you want you know.

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You definitely had a lot to say. So you’re saying first of all I it’s tough not to sell bad for it I don’t I don’t think you can beat yourself up too much on that one. Right. Because and in the subsequent price action was just pretty, pretty nasty. Right. And you got yeah. You got three days in a row where you kind of been told like, hey, there’s something else but right here.

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But yeah, it is what it is. To your point though, it’s this is starting to break down a lot more than what like we saw on that move. You just like right here, right. You’ve got several days in a row, you’ve got a large trend that’s has been broken today. Right. This uptrend has been going since. What is this early June.

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Correct. And then you’ve got kind of a much longer term. One two. It’s that it’s like what’s super interesting about this is look at the convergence you could end up having depending on how quickly it does it. Right. Oh, but to your point, let’s say you got this big gap right here. What if you get convergence between selling this gap and breaking this long term trend?

00;11;06;27 – 00;11;27;19

That can be wild. I mean, you could yeah, you can really hammer this market if you got that right. Then you started to talk about like 46 and really you wouldn’t have any. And then, you know, you’d want to use the points that you used to make the chart. 4646 seems to be a pretty big area, right. Touches big.

00;11;27;19 – 00;11;43;13

You know, long term trend seems to be at the beginning of a shorter term trend that just got broken today. This looks weak. This feels weak this last week. And what I what sticks out to me too is so let’s just take a look at this. Tries to punch in the new highs right here right.

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It’s punched right in the nose. Yep.

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And then subsequently opens lower. It gives back 1234567 days worth of trade in one day. So the market’s response to getting into new contract highs was to go give back two weeks worth of trade. Yeah. So I think there’s a lot kind of like cooking here. This to be kind of week. So I agree with you like this is I don’t know.

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So long as we.

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Clear right now we are we’re a seller of soil at this point. That’s correct I you know what.

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So during this Nerf party I found the bearish bazooka.

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Did you.

00;12;23;25 – 00;12;31;13

Yes, I found it. I was so, so excited I you know what? I should have brought it for the show. You should have next show. We’re getting the bazooka out. If there’s a sale.

00;12;31;14 – 00;12;32;16

I’d love to hear it. I love to hear it.

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Well, that’s all I got.

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That’s going to do it for this episode of Tech Talk. We appreciate everyone calling in, emailing in with their different suggestions. Glad we got around through them. If anyone else would like see some please let us know. We actually going to be off next week. We’re back the following week and if anyone would like to see anything by then, please get Ahold of us.

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But with that being said, everyone have a great rest of your week.

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Wait a minute. Go ahead. Is that a new shirt? It is a new it.

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Thought I’d wear it for Tech Talk.

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All right, that’s it.

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Have a great weekend, everybody. We’ll see you later.

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Now I’m done. Now I’m just.