In this episode of Tech Talk, the team dives into a trio of chart requests, unpacking key trends, momentum shifts, and market signals in soybean meal, butter and nonfat. With sharp analysis and a bit of fun along the way, they explore what could be next for these volatile markets.
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(Transcipt auto-generated)
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Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in the segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy and Paige in the background. We make up the tech talk trio. It is Tuesday, July 22nd, just about 4:00 eastern, 3:00 central time. How are you doing today?
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You know what, Cody? It’s a day of mourning right now.
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It is.
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We just learned the news.
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About half an hour. We just learned that Ozzy Osbourne no longer.
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So for the rest of the show, I think I might just call you Sweet Leaf. I don’t know if I. If I refer to you as sweet lace, I.
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Understand.
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Thank you.
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You just had his concert not even two weeks ago. That was utterly vet tastic. If anyone has not seen it, I suggest you go look it up on YouTube. It was amazing tribute to Black Sabbath and Ozzy Osbourne.
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Here we go. Well, we’ve got three charts. All three came in request, by the way.
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Yes we do.
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This is a bit of a,[…] from internally.
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Tranel train going off the rails on the crazy train.
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This is this thing has gone off the rails on everything.
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Is off the.
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Rails for sure. So I’m looking at a different indicator here today. This is the ADX basically measures the the strength of a train. Pretty good. And it’s not to say that this is like this. This is in a clear downtrend. Yeah. Right. Yeah.
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No it hasn’t been able to break out of there. Well it hasn’t even really tried to break out of there except for maybe two days gone.
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I mean you could say that it’s it it’s giving it a shot. It’s giving it the old college. Try it. Yeah. And what’s interesting is that this guy right here, the ADX, is starting to roll over, which would suggest that the strength of the trend is is coming to a close like it’s losing steam, so to speak. Right.
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So this number is always going to be positive. So even though the number is going up it indicates strength of a trend be it a downturn or that trend. So this thing coming back down would suggest the very least consolidation that’s coming okay. Yeah. This this looks like it wants to go test this 270 area. And then you know, who knows you’re going to like what kind of a crazy train are we going to have here.
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What do you think for channel I guess.
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You know, we were on a call this morning, talking to Jim and Jake, and he had mentioned something about the same test in two seven. Again, the question is, do you break through it, make new lows, or do you bounce off of that again? I mean, the way that it’s not like we’ve rallied back to 300 by any means, right?
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We’ve we’ve gone from 270 to 280 just under 280. So like we’ve had a heck of a rally the past couple days either.
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Right, right. I mean, to your point, like if you were looking for a spot to be long, this is as good as any you’ve gotten out of this, this downtrend. It feels like we wants to test 270, but I mean this. But I think if you fail to test 270 or maybe you go do it and bounce off pretty aggressively, then I think the number you want to be mindful is this 300 area.
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I mean once, twice. Third time was a charm.
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Nope.
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Right. But like this, this area, I think it’s clear that this market had a lot of volatility once it got past that price in both directions. So it becomes a bit of a magnet. I mean, I think you take a shot at being on this. You know you’re wrong. At 270 upside you’re risking call it eight to make 20 change.
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So nice little what is that. Two and a half to one. Right. It’s not bad. Yeah that’s excellent actually. Yeah.
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And to your point, if you settle below, settle below 270, you know, it’s probably time to get out of a long position that you got on.
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Oh, hello. It’s just hard to get excited about anything and stuff. Right? Right. Like right here, right now. I mean, I think you would do really well with, like, a pet that.
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I mean, I don’t know about that, but.
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I mean, you don’t want a cat, you don’t want a dog, and I get it. That’s fine. But if you had like, this channel, like you’re interested and get a bad, pet bad, I think that that would be sweet. Here we can create, like, a, like a poll or something like that. Should Cody get a bat? Yes or no?
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I think the answer is going to be a resounding yes. But I think I know, I know, I know, I don’t know, I don’t know. All right, next up, another request. Let’s just do this on a weekly basis. This is spot butter came to us live from another internal request. We call them c suite.
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C, suite.
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C, suite one to look at spot butter. This is a weekly we had so we didn’t touch anything since last time we talked about spot butter. Yeah. And we have this guy circled.
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It sure looks like 240 is probably our next testing point here for butter.
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Yeah, I mean, this thing had a nice little channel going and it’s since broke through it. And obviously, you know, we just looked at we just looked at the strength of the trend is now losing steam. So here right. It’s not really performing very well obviously he says it but so this looks like it wants to go back and fill this gap.
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The question is like what does it do? Let’s say it does that. What does it do afterwards that fills a gap and then opens lower. Then you got to go down. You know, you go back and test all this noise. 225 features that aren’t even close to that number by the way. Right where our features two six. Yeah.
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Two 66th October and I don’t know this looks like it wants to go fill that gap.
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It really does. It really does. Yeah. If it does that do we go back down to 225. It’s hard to say with Europe where they’re pricing butter at. But man looking at this and the way the butter’s traded on the spot the past couple sessions it doesn’t seem very supportive.
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Oh it’s also got the hallmarks of your favorite. It’s got the hallmarks of making a nice. All right I mean the question is does it go fill this gap. And then that’s it. Because that would be one gigantic halo wouldn’t it.
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Yep.
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Yeah. Jack index right. Work but whatever. Yeah. Like it would be a nice higher low. And then like to me I think the concern would be another trip to 260. All right let’s see. Or fill this gap. Fail to put in a new low. Go back to 260. You know the idea being there’s no such thing as a triple top.
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We’ll see. But let’s hope that feels like it to me. Is is given what the futures are doing. To your point, what’s happening with the rest of the world? Go fill this gap and then take off. I know you got a hammer somewhere, just not here. So that’s not on your person right now, but I feel like you need to go.
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Like, I don’t know, you don’t sharpen a hammer. What do you do with a hammer to make it more like hammer? More?
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I think you just use it.
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Okay? Fair.
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Not just use that thing. Use it if you got it.
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All right, well, get ready to use your hammer. I think because I feel like you’re going to want to buy butter once it goes. It feels like that was just my gut feeling.
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And the crazy. What are we at right now? I mean, we got seven, seven and a half cents to to go in to fill that gap.
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Yeah, it’s not that much.
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It’s not that much.
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It’s not that much in. Yeah. Two.
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We could do it by Friday.
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We can be there by Friday. And that’s the mystery. Yeah. That’s the call though. We’re going to go fill this gap, put in a new fail to make a new low. An awful yo kind of little rhyme there. Okay. Last one, but certainly not least this is spot now. In fact, I’d say this is probably the best looking chart amongst the entire dairy complex.
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This one came from a request ye who shall not be named.
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Literally what they wanted to be called.
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Ye who shall not be named. So that’s fine. And hey, we respect that travel train. Want to be travel training C-suite want to be C-suite. You should not be named, shall not be named.
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We let you pick your names as part of the game here.
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Part of the game. If you’re looking for things to be, you know, like, I guess bullish about this is probably the best looking chart in the whole in the whole complex. I feel like, yeah.
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What kind of information do you look for right here?
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Oh, this looks like a bull flag isn’t it. Right. So you had this and then you had the slight retracement in a bit of a range right here that I think is a flag right now. Let’s just let’s do ourselves a favor. Since I’m turning an old man over here, I can barely see anything. Yeah. So there you go.
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So that looks like a flag to me, right? It’s. No, it retraced us. I’m going to get rid of this line for a second. It retrace a slight amount of this break and then quickly broke back out of there, if that is, if this is truly what we believe it is, then the measurement. It depends on where you wanted this thing breaking out from too.
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Right? Okay. I think you can argue that it once it cleared all this stuff, that’s when it started to go through. I would take this bad boy and mash and put it right on top of there, which. Wow, look at that. Takes you right back to the takes you right back to all that stuff. Look at that.
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And look at that one 38.5. Let’s go. That’s where we’re going, And that cool how that works.
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Sometimes I love them when a plan comes together. We got it. We got to see the rest of this plan coming together. But I definitely see what you’re saying. When I was first looking at it, when he pulls it up, I was going to ask you if it was, if it was a cup and handle formation, which we haven’t seen for a long, long, long time, you couldn’t.
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Even see what could be right. Hey, I’m not going to disagree with you on that one.
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It just looks a little bit too condensed. I mean, I yeah, I think that is more of a spread out formation, right?
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I, I that was the first thing I thought of when I saw this was you had a very just talking. It’s a real nice pop. You had a very small retracement of that. This is, this is very little. And then you climb. Now you’re, you’re now you’re into a new high relative to this break.
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Right? Yeah.
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So that right there, this is, this is the best that the bears could do right here. And and they still couldn’t hold it right. So yeah, to me the next up is, is basically the length of this which we just laid on top. Which brings us back to this number. And the question is let’s see if we get there.
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What do we do from there. Yeah okay. But yeah I think at the very least you know features two features are trading this awfully close to spot. There’s barely any premium in the features, which I don’t necessarily think that means you have to roll over necessarily. Right, right. I just think tomatoes, maybe that means the features are a little bit under price, which is entirely possible for sure.
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So but yeah, I’d say this is probably the best looking chart of the entire dairy complex. We just got the milk production report that came out, and it certainly did some damage to the front months, August and September. All those months, by the way, will close like I think like six lower. So you’ll see like a big wick.
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That’ll be the actual candle. So that’s why if you’re looking at the absence of charts and then closing thoughts here for you, get back on the crazy train.
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Yeah, I think these are very good charts to have today. We appreciate three folks that asked us really good ones that people obviously are taking a peek at and wondering what the heck is going on in the dairy complex.
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And not just the dairy complex, but the grains.
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And the grains to agriculture.
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And agriculture. There you go. Well, that’s all I got was, well.
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I got I guess, Andy and I are going to be back with you guys next week. We appreciate everyone tuning in. We appreciate everyone getting hold of us to look at these charts. And if anyone wants to see anything for next week, please email us, call us on text however you can do it. We would love to look at them.
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We appreciate Paige in the background, making sure that we keep on track, pulling the levers, pushing the buttons, making the show go around and if anyone has not already and you are watching this on YouTube, please give us a like thumbs up, subscribe to the channel, watch everything that ever AG has to put out. As far as content.
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Wise.
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And we will see everyone again next Tuesday. Have a great week, even better weekend. Enjoy the weather.
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See you later.
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