Cody and Andy dig into three viewer-requested charts this week: coffee’s breakout above key resistance, butter’s precarious setup near multi-year lows, and the choppy back-and-forth in block cheese. With futures signals, price gaps, and trend lines in focus, they weigh bullish vs. bearish scenarios and what to watch for next.

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(Transcipt auto-generated)

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Future trading involves risk and not suitable for all investors. Content provided in the site for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

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Give me like one of these. Like what is it like? And then.

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Well hello everyone. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy. It is the 20th of August. Little past 230 eastern time, 130 central. Andy, how you doing?

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You know what? I’m so much better now that I’m talking to you.

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Kind of exciting news. We’ve got three charts, three requests. We’ve gotten more requests, I think, over the past couple of weeks. And we have our own charts. That’s always, you know, good. More people are watching, more people are asking.

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And I’ve got the right charts pulled up this time.

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And you have the right charts.

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We appreciate we’ll have the right charts pull up this time. I swear.

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I excited the last.

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Time. Yeah, I got too excited. We’re going to cheese.

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First one coffee. I don’t know if we’ve looked at this camera.

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The last time we looked at this one came at request from Yahoo! Shall not be named.

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Okay.

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This is a daily of coffee. We’ll look at our weekly here in a second. Oh my gosh Cody, what do you call this.

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It wasn’t a big old W. And also the fact that we settled, we settled above 360 that we couldn’t get over back in June.

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Oh my gosh, look at that. 360 .25. Yeah I mean you couldn’t have asked for just a this is a hair of 360. I mean, it is just I mean you got to like how far do you have to zoom in there to get the. See that. Look at that. Yeah. Just a hair over 360. But it did it like you don’t even I don’t even need that much price action tomorrow.

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To the upside to this to your point 353 double have 59.5. 353 first time settling over 360 since when? This one right there. This goes back to me. Yup.

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Here you go.

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Back here you have clear w nice. Higher low right I mean look at that. Look at look at that. Had the stitched in that broke out when you just couldn’t ask for a better W here.

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Beautiful.

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Where are we going?

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380 I saw I was going to ask next. It looks like there’s some resistance up there. 380 you got to get through. I got was the high on that wick. 370.

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Two and a half. So, I mean, yeah, I mean, depending on what was. Yeah. Right there. So last time it touched a few times between three 7372. So it goes there. It clears that. I mean you have quite a bit of traffic.

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And a lot of congestion.

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Were there all this like 380 level you know a lot of noise right there at 380 once it broke 380 here and never look back. So yeah, I mean it seems like after this close today three 7372 is the next stop and clear that 380 next up or is 480.

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So this and then I guess if you get back up 400 you probably get selling it. We tried twice to get through 400 can do it.

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I mean the yeah. How do you factor on 400. Because if you go you look at the weekly. Exactly. Right. So you took once twice and then thrice. I’ll give you $100 right now if you could tell me what classic book that’s from once twice. But thrice classic. Yeah.

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I don’t know. Exactly. Because it’s what, Game of Thrones?

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No. Yeah. You’re still on season one, episode one, season one. It’s, Achilles drags Hector thrice around. Not once, not twice, but thrice. The cat hunt players.

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Yeah, I went to Gotham.

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So anyways, weekly coffee, a lot of room to go here. Oh, okay. Hold on a.

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Hold of that. Yep yep yep. Three, eight.

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No. Do you see this thing? I’m not reading this. This is like a new addition to to the software. Look at that. It’s like perfectly designed for gaps. Wow. Hanging moving up in the world we can draw circles now. So yeah I mean look at that gap on a weekly basis. I mean, the thing is just calling your name.

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So if we were talking about and I’m guessing it’s 380 okay. 394 395 so in the realm where we’re talking.

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Rick filling that gap, failing to get over 400. So this I mean, I said this was the place we were looking for is just a stair stepping trade to go fill that gap is right. Protest this touch point here. Get through all this noise. That gap roughly is here. Right. Go fill that in. If you fail and and probably roll over.

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Yep.

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Okay. So if you’re looking to be short, you probably got some room to kind of play around it. If you’re looking at it you know you have to get short tomorrow. Buy puts I guess this has a little bit of room to go. What a do you drink coffee, I think I do. Okay. There we go. You might want to load up on it because it looks like it’s going to get more expensive.

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Yeah, absolutely. Aren’t playing out.

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Speaking of what’s not getting more expensive. Yeah a second quick look at butter. So this one came at request from our good friend Frosty Bliss. What a great name, by the way.

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That’s a great call.

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So weekly butter. I leave a note. I mean, it’s just been, like, every day, like today, for example, the session multiple offer stacked up. I mean, you need to scroll down on See me the tracks option to be able to see all the offers. Yeah. This is this is starting to approach levels like you get to all this congestion.

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Maybe you did it once. You try to do it here. All this noise you get through there. I mean you’re talking about two bucks.

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Yeah. I mean, if you broke through there, but we’ve tried doing it already this year. We haven’t been able to do it right. You don’t want to dirty where we sit right now. And it’s not been a good bearish sign.

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I’m not going to disagree with you. Not one bit. Right. You have to break through that to get to two bucks. But that’s what that’s implying, right. Because what’s interesting about this chart is that it it had this huge break 320 down that I mean, you’re talking about taking nearly a dollar a pound out of the commodity from here.

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Oops. From here. Down here. Right. And since then it tried to kind of pick its way back up. It got to literally it got to a third of a retracement, 33% retracement and then bounced right off of it. It came right back down these lows. That’s just such a sign of weakness. You know, that the failure to go even even maintain any kind of retracement.

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Now, you could also argue, too, that you’re setting up for your favorite. Quite the long term. I mean, this is a weekly basis too, right? So you got a lot of time baked into this bad boy. But I mean, like, what if you get one of these, would that be. Well.

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Like it would be a right. Okay. Do you think the W plays out first or you think we break the $2 first? Okay, let’s do 30 I guess. Where did we settle today.

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Well he did break 230.

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You didn’t sell none. But it’s weekly. So we get we still have Thursday. Friday.

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You got to get through two and a quarter. Yeah. You have to go settle below 225 if you get that settlement and then open lower then. Yeah I think it’s, it’s a quick trip to two bucks. So the thing about it, which makes me hesitant to say that, is that the futures market now one futures considers butter for a second level one futures contract is telling us that we’re going to be remotely like even October, which starts pricing soon.

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October is only a few weeks away from starting to price. And it’s it’s saying that we’re going to be a 20 plus cent premium, where it’s saying that we’re back up in kind of towards this red line. Right. So the October futures are saying to us right now that we’re going to have that w cert to play out.

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So you have to be respectful of what the futures are telling you. Given the premium in the futures market. I’m not I can’t say that we’re going to go to two bucks right now. I mean I think you have to get that close. And then if we open lower than. Yeah, it’s kind of, you know, it’s certainly in the cards, but stop to say, I mean, like I said, the futures markets are telling us that’s no go right now.

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Yeah. Eve I don’t know. I’d be reluctant to sell from here like you said I’d like see a break below. 225 open up lower next week. So on Monday, I think people who’ve tried this before got short. When we hit it the first time going back into March, and then we started rallying ourselves higher, are probably looking at and saying the same thing.

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Let’s see some confirmation going into next week before we get too crazily overleveraged on this one.

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Yeah, I don’t know. So this is a this is a really tough one. We’re back on like again, we’re at this price point where it’s just I don’t know, it’s a tough one. So yeah, I like I said I don’t want to I don’t want I’m not going to make the call that we’re going to go to two bucks.

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The futures market sits on us, though. I think if you’re going to get that’s you’ve got to get that close below to 25 and then open lower the next week. That’s what I think cements that. So okay. But futures are telling us that we’re going to get we’re going to where to consolidate and then bounce.

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I guess we’ll know if we look at this next week, Tuesday.

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Should I care about big. Hey, we got a Big Mo production report coming up tomorrow.

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It would do.

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We do so that, you know, that will likely have a little bit of a role. And I know how markets trade, etc.. So but yeah this is this is dangerously close to closing into an area that we have not seen in several years. And if it does I think it turns into a free fall. Back then this area.

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Yikes. Yeah. All right. Thank you frosty. Bless. Keep him coming. Last but certainly not least this came out. Requests are good for him. Goody. See me block what I like. It’s just chop city. Yeah.

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The chart that no one can figure out.

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It’s just just like I mean look at this price action up down side up that like it’s just all year. It’s just been one big choppy trade. Yep. And it’s interesting too. Is it like our premiums have been coming in. These are talking about cheese and like the one 60s it’s printing. Well you know above that like the recall when you start when you’re talking about cheese like back in this 195 area basis start to get pretty weak.

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So but again you’re looking at the chart. You know a couple things stick out. You’ve got this pretty big gap that I think ultimately turns into a bit of a magnet. Right. Selling this gap. That would take you back down to 170. That’s been a number that’s been tough to get the Nasdaq below 170. So but what’s I mean here now, what’s what sticks out to me about this chart is, let’s say we even settled the week out here.

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Let me just zero in on these three candles. So this week settled 185 promptly like engulfed last week. That week’s trade last week opened. You know gapped higher this week and are now trading above last week’s open of one 8675. Yeah that’s a pretty friendly response. I mean like you think about what what this is implying right here.

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This nice big pop off the lows gapped out of there. Tried to come back down by completely engulfing the previous week’s candle. And then you know that got that was at present a break to buy and pretty quickly to. So a settlement here higher for the rest of the week. That chart looks pretty friendly right? Right.

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It feels like a oh we’re at 186 almost 187 right now. It really feels like we’re going to go test $1.92, maybe dollar 95 one more time and then from there it’s like, okay, well do you hit two bucks during the $2 bill for the first time since last September? I don’t know. The whole trade this year has been from $1.94 to $1.60.

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Oh, gosh. I mean, the whole trade since October of 2024. It’s been that way, right? Yeah. I mean, I can’t disagree with what you’re saying in the futures. You know, like September has been kind of putting up against what 90 seems like when it gets up to, you know, over 190 on a cheese basis, it starts to sell off.

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We had a pretty quick down up here recently. But yeah, I mean, to me like when you just look at this chart, you’ve got some room to go before going in. Testing as high is not that far away from them. Right. I settle one for the years 194, 75. We’re sitting at one 8675. That’s $0.08, right? But we’ve moved more than that single day.

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Right. But to your point of that gap, become a magnet. It really feels like we’re going to hit 192 one more time. 184 in that area. And then it’s going to be a a real quick downward trend towards 170.

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Yeah. Go feel like a I can’t disagree with you I mean that’s why when again just looking at the last three candles here is what sticks out to me is you had as you gapped out of the all you gapped away from all of this. This is one, two, three, 4 or 5 six weeks worth of trade. And in one week you gapped away from that.

00;12;34;12 – 00;12;55;16

That’s that’s a strong you know is a strong move for the market. Bullish move. Yeah totally engulfed that candle. The next week. The very next week sellers say nope. And then this week so far it’s been actually just kidding. This was a buy. So that’s why I when I look at when I look at this close and it’s Wednesday, we still have a couple more days.

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You could come right back down and close below this candle. That would be, I think, a quick trip to go fill that gap next week. Assuming you did, that would be the fear here higher by the end of this week. I mean that’s a strong candle. It’s a strong response to this one right here. So but I’m with you.

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I mean, if we were to pop more from here, I think you run out of gas up against this.

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Bank. So exports are drying up about a 190.

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Yeah. Unless you’re, you know, buying pizzas for like a whole country or something like that. Which are you? I’m not. Maybe just for Paige and I really the rest of the country. Forget it. You’re not getting a free pizza from Cody.

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They’re to fend for themselves.

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Well, that’s it. That’s all I got, man.

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Hey, appreciate your insight, as always. We definitely appreciate three folks that wrote in looking for the different charts that they want to see from coffee all the way to butter and cheese. I think next week Raph would troll. Probably have. I’d say butter and the block Mac on next week’s docket.

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It wouldn’t surprise me.

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Just kind of see how our thoughts have played out. But until then, if anyone has any other charts that you want to see, please feel free to email us. Give us a text. Shoot us. An email and we will definitely get it on here with that. Thanks for tuning in everyone. We will see you next week. Rounding out the month of August cash.

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Is it already that time?

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Yeah. Have a great week. Better weekend.

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School starts and.

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We’re getting there.

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It’s crazy.

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