Tech Talk - Video

Tech Talk: Cheese Slides, Butter Breaks, Cattle Waver – September 9, 2025

September 10, 2025

Halloween might be weeks away, but the markets are already looking spooky!

In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody dig into the latest price action across dairy and cattle markets:

– Cheese drifting toward $1.60 with no bullish lifeline in sight

– Butter breaking key support, raising questions of a deeper drop

– Feeder cattle flashing early signs of weakness after a relentless run

Tune in for charts, market banter, and insight into whether dairy and cattle markets have further downside ahead.

Subscribe now for more great content!

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Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.

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Future trading involves risk and not suitable for all investors. Content provided in the site for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I’m Cody, he is Andy and in the background making sure that we stay on course is Miss Paige Driscoll. We make up the tech talk trio coming to you live on the 9th of September just about 4 p.m. eastern time, 3 p.m. Central time. Andy, how you doing?

00;00;29;28 – 00;00;34;29

I’m doing great. How are you doing? Well. Question for you. Go for it. Is it too early to be putting up Halloween decorations?

00;00;35;01 – 00;00;39;09

That’s a great question because my neighbors are putting them up and we had this discussion Sunday. I believe it is okay.

00;00;39;10 – 00;00;40;25

When when is an appropriate time?

00;00;40;27 – 00;00;43;21

October. When is Halloween the 30th? 31st?

00;00;43;22 – 00;00;45;05

31st? Last time I checked.

00;00;45;13 – 00;00;54;14

Put them up on the 22nd. It’s like people that that go through Thanksgiving and go straight to Christmas. It’s very disrespectful. Give the turkey the day that it deserves.

00;00;54;14 – 00;00;55;11

Don’t okay.

00;00;55;14 – 00;00;56;25

Like stop joking holidays.

00;00;57;00 – 00;01;02;14

We’re not jumping holidays though going from like after Labor Day. Like what? Holidays between Labor Day and.

00;01;02;19 – 00;01;07;13

Okay. But it’s still too early. It’s still too early. Ten days before total Max got it.

00;01;07;13 – 00;01;11;18

All right. All my holiday decorations are up. They’re all. Actually, I got to put.

00;01;11;21 – 00;01;13;26

It is literally the 9th of September.

00;01;13;29 – 00;01;16;12

They’re all up. I’ll send you a picture. They’re all up.

00;01;16;14 – 00;01;17;01

Please don’t.

00;01;17;03 – 00;01;23;00

So you’re going to get one now you get to.

00;01;23;02 – 00;01;35;16

We can have a couple a couple pictures here. We got not only two charts, some spooky some spooky ones. They’re spooky. We got not only two charts, but we got three charts. These are all these big goodies. I think we looked at them the last couple of weeks. There seems to be, at least in the class, right space.

00;01;35;16 – 00;01;51;24

Kind of very choppy. Right? I mean, it’s kind of look at their type trade. We get a lot of requests about the block. And now that it’s, you know, front and center. And again, I feel like it’s it’s still like it’s it’s very much teetering. So this is again see me block on a weekly basis. We’ve looked at this a few times already.

00;01;51;24 – 00;02;09;00

We filled this big gap. We’ve talked about this one before. This is the next one to potentially get filled. And this week what’s interesting about it is that though this is only we’re only on Tuesday. Right. But we had this big break here relative to you know, there’s this whole piece. Right. We got to build this gap and then we open lower the next week.

00;02;09;00 – 00;02;22;06

Right. You didn’t get like the we’ve seen that song and dance so many times where it’s like you break and then come back up and over down. So we’re actually on target to fill this bad boy here, which is that, I mean, that what do we sell 66 half today we settle 160.

00;02;22;06 – 00;02;24;00

$0.03 or.

00;02;24;03 – 00;02;27;22

Two two and a half cents away. It’s not that much. We’re practically there.

00;02;27;28 – 00;02;28;24

We’ll do it by tomorrow.

00;02;28;28 – 00;02;44;13

Sure. And then the next question is, we already had this green line here, this one 60.25, right. Basically 160. What’s the 160 number is just such a big number for this market. Yeah. So yeah I mean I just want to point this out. It’s interesting that you fill this gap here. Obviously when in this week we open lower.

00;02;44;13 – 00;02;51;28

Do you solidified that last week’s candle by opening lower in that direction or opening in that direction I should say. What do you think boss?

00;02;51;28 – 00;03;13;25

I think we’re going to 160, but it’s not going to be a fast drop like it’s been before. It just seems. How have you put it before Death by a thousand cuts? That’s exactly how this market feels of lower every single day, it seems like. And it just the offers keep coming. As the market is about to close, it feels like we’re going to go to 160 probably by this Friday.

00;03;13;27 – 00;03;22;21

And I would hope from there we’re going to find a little bit of traction, some action in the market. But if we don’t, then the question becomes, okay, do we break to a buck 50 on.

00;03;22;25 – 00;03;46;22

You have all this noise. Exactly right. And so I know there’s a lot of things kind of happening to macroeconomics, right? I mean, you’ve got rate cuts potentially on the horizon to what degree. We don’t know. Right. It’s going to be quarter point half point job report. Not great. Didn’t seem like it was great. At least that said I mean when you start going to mess around the interest rate like this, I mean you start to like weaken and the US dollar that increases our ability to export, which has been phenomenal.

00;03;46;22 – 00;04;00;29

And that’s really just a math problem in the day, right? Yes. Europe has come under pressure for sure. Obviously we’ve seen the convergence we’ve been getting I think just short answers. We’re getting a lot of their business. That said, if you go into the low one, 60s, Ireland, 50s, that math, you know, you still have that spread, right?

00;04;00;29 – 00;04;14;09

It’s just at a lower tier. So yeah, I mean, to me, I mean, I agree with you that like we’re going to go down here and test this. I think you got to go fill this gap. I mean, I’m 5050. And whether or not it’s like, you know, and are there by the end of the week or a couple of weeks.

00;04;14;15 – 00;04;23;07

You know, the reason I say that is we drop, what, four since today? I mean, my guesstimate in tomorrow’s Wednesday, we fill the gap tomorrow. By Friday, I think we’re still at a buck 60.

00;04;23;09 – 00;04;42;13

Okay. Right. I mean, last week you like turn. Very you were very bearish last week. I mean, let’s just be really then that hasn’t changed. I mean, the hammer is in the closet. It’s gathering dust. Going to be back another day. But not not tomorrow but not today. Not tomorrow. So I don’t know. We’re just not I just don’t feel like we’ve seen any real good bullish news that would, like, pull this thing out.

00;04;42;13 – 00;04;56;00

One thing that sticks out to me, I sort of feel about this actually, you know, where do we start to see like the promotional activity pick up that that’s something from a domestic standpoint that’s been really lacking. And from a price point, you know, I think that’s below contract lows in the year below 165 promotions.

00;04;56;00 – 00;04;57;20

You mean like fast food chains.

00;04;57;22 – 00;05;09;13

Promotional activity two for one. You know like you’re just out there. You’re buying cheese. You’re putting in a shop. You’re putting a lot of them in the shopping cart because you get cheap. There you go. Right? I don’t know why, but that just reminded me of having a Frito pie. Does that sound great?

00;05;09;16 – 00;05;10;07

Sounds great.

00;05;10;10 – 00;05;13;26

A Fritos, some chili Fritos, a bunch of cheese. Oh, man.

00;05;13;29 – 00;05;16;00

Walking taco. Extra hand a cheese in there.

00;05;16;02 – 00;05;36;12

There you go. At this price, why not? So all right, next up, we’ve beaten this one up a little bit. Butter. It’s been in the news. It’s the hot ticket item. But now you want to look at it. I just don’t think anything really great about this chart from like the long side. And we didn’t touch anything and we really don’t have that many, you know, like technical lines here really, because we broke through this big key area of resistance or sports.

00;05;36;12 – 00;05;56;17

He’s been at 223 and solidified it, which is a massive break. We you know we talk about like breaking the support and then what does it do. The next candle breaks support bam next candle down an additional $0.20 a pound. After having this big break let’s just massive and like this is the best the bears the Bulls can do here is going to put a little bit of a stopper in it.

00;05;56;17 – 00;06;17;12

But like $2 is just such a big number for this market. And we’re so close so close, so close. I mean it’s just and I think if you got through that price. Yeah. 190 and some change is where this market if you think about it from like here, that’s where the market broke out from. This was in 2021.

00;06;17;15 – 00;06;24;03

So if I do all that this market never look back from this price once I got through there. So that to me becomes such a magnet.

00;06;24;07 – 00;06;37;16

Okay. I mean, I see what you’re saying, but couldn’t you drop it to about a buck 70, a buck 60 to say, okay, now this is where we stop going lower after that retracement, right? We went from 190 to 160 and then we started our rally.

00;06;37;16 – 00;06;44;19

I’m not going to say I can’t do that for sure. Right. I think you’re talking about basically fill in this guy right there which let me draw.

00;06;44;22 – 00;07;01;15

No I’d be lower. He chuckles. Now it’s like 155 on 54. Well, which I mean could happen. I guess my question is, wouldn’t the way that you explained it is we didn’t stop going lower from there. Well, we technically dropped to 160 and then rallied ourselves. So would you put that mark at 160 and say, hey, here’s the.

00;07;01;18 – 00;07;17;01

I’m looking at it and saying when we when we got through this high, or this temporary high, you had this higher, you had this higher low right here. Yep. Once we got through this, you put in another higher low right here. But once you got through that it the market has never traded that price sense.

00;07;17;03 – 00;07;18;24

Right. Okay, I see what you’re saying.

00;07;18;26 – 00;07;32;10

And so it’s just to me it’s just such an important price point. And you just have to be really. So like I think I think what we end up doing is just like, if you can get through two bucks on a weekly basis, I think it’s a quick trip to this price here. And then you I think you run into some traffic.

00;07;32;13 – 00;07;50;19

Yeah. Because from a buyer’s perspective, I mean, it’s is as good as it’s getting. It’s gotten for some time. Correct. Correct. And so I think we find out, you know, that price point in kind of a rubber meets the road buyer. Is there really there for size so far. I mean you know we’ve seen the sell side bring the volume bring the pressure and price.

00;07;50;21 – 00;08;07;02

We have yet to really see the buyer kind of stand in there and say like enough is enough. Well price point is, I don’t know, it’s me. It’s like, I think you got to go test. This was such a great technical breakout. It becomes a magnet. It’s one nine. And then, yeah, I mean, to your point earlier though, I enlarged and turned to make it a little bit bigger for you guys.

00;08;07;02 – 00;08;13;02

But you’ve got this gap. Unfinished business. Unfinished business.

00;08;13;04 – 00;08;15;00

To get more negative. There’s another one down.

00;08;15;04 – 00;08;16;11

Ever been sold.

00;08;16;14 – 00;08;19;10

At 140 oh, a little lower?

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I just like, threw up a little bit in my mouth when you said that,

00;08;22;05 – 00;08;25;04

That that is where we’re going.

00;08;25;06 – 00;08;33;17

Oh, and you’re just. Oh, oh, that’s think below 140. Not by much.

00;08;33;24 – 00;08;35;02

Now we’re much.

00;08;35;04 – 00;08;36;29

But it’s technically below 140.

00;08;37;02 – 00;08;38;22

You think we get down to one 4050?

00;08;38;22 – 00;08;48;06

Should be. I think it should be a bear for Halloween. I know you hate the bears like your package bears. But I think you should be a bear for Halloween this year.

00;08;48;09 – 00;08;52;10

Do you think we go to 140 before or after January 1st?

00;08;52;16 – 00;08;55;10

If we’re going to go to 140, I think it would be after January 1st.

00;08;55;11 – 00;08;56;11

After January 1st.

00;08;56;11 – 00;09;06;01

Okay. Yes, I think it would be after January 1st. All right. So you’re going to be a bear for Halloween that we’re going to 140 according to you. And now what what’s your answer to that question before?

00;09;06;02 – 00;09;07;11

I’m going to go before you.

00;09;07;12 – 00;09;24;15

Before I’m going to be I’m after Janet. So if we’re going to go at all, I’m still I don’t know if we go to that price. That’s just me. But if we’re going to do it okay. After Jan one, you’re saying dislike. We’re bringing the pain. 140 before the end of your Merry Christmas. Here’s some 140 butter. That’s what you’re saying.

00;09;24;15 – 00;09;25;14

You’re happy New.

00;09;25;14 – 00;09;28;23

Year. Some 139 f butter.

00;09;28;25 – 00;09;29;23

There you go.

00;09;29;25 – 00;09;32;05

Oh, God. Heidi’s 21.

00;09;32;05 – 00;09;36;23

Though. Since you’re going to be a bear for Halloween, I asked my kid, what would I be for Halloween?

00;09;36;25 – 00;09;37;04

You should.

00;09;37;10 – 00;09;40;07

He’s. He’s going to be a ninja. So I’m like, I want to be a ninja.

00;09;40;10 – 00;09;41;09

Should be a ninja.

00;09;41;11 – 00;09;49;09

I should be a ninja. But like I asked him, what should I be for Halloween? What he said. He said A Soulja Boy from K-pop Demon Hunters.

00;09;49;11 – 00;09;50;10

I don’t know if that is him.

00;09;50;12 – 00;10;02;08

I go watch it this week and add it to your to do list. After you. After you finished Game of Thrones, go watch K-pop Demon Hunters. And then I’m supposed to be. So I got to pick what color wig. I’m at work because there’s several colors.

00;10;02;11 – 00;10;03;22

Okay, I’ll take your word for it.

00;10;03;25 – 00;10;07;11

Take your word for it. There you go. All right. We’re going to be a bear. I’m going to be a boy.

00;10;07;13 – 00;10;08;24

I really need to be negative now.

00;10;08;25 – 00;10;09;08

It’s fine.

00;10;09;11 – 00;10;11;08

I mean, year is sunshine, but you know what?

00;10;11;08 – 00;10;18;12

But this is a two sided market. It is. You know what? What goes up has to come down and vice versa. I mean, we can’t just go one section, you know.

00;10;18;14 – 00;10;23;14

Like, okay.

00;10;23;16 – 00;10;30;26

You know, well, bears jump out the window. Did that walk up the steps. Bears above the window. Speaking of potentially jumping out the window.

00;10;30;28 – 00;10;32;15

Oh hold on.

00;10;32;18 – 00;10;35;28

So this also has been coming at request. This is November feeders.

00;10;36;00 – 00;10;37;29

November feeder cat.

00;10;38;01 – 00;10;53;05

Now keep in mind this bad boy has been just on a tear. The little engine that could I mean this thing just is not giving up. That said, we have started to see just a touch of this is a weekly. We’ve seen this song in this before.

00;10;53;07 – 00;10;53;26

Yep.

00;10;53;29 – 00;11;12;03

Right here. Right here. Definitely right here where it’s like, this is it. And then. No, you’re just kidding. But we’re going back up. So this is kind of sending a little bit of a shot across the bow. This is a monthly lot of room to break. But the monthly is the one that sticks out to me the most.

00;11;12;03 – 00;11;25;10

And so we’re doing this on a little bit more of a longer term basis in that we’re looking at a monthly, I think if you wanted to see this market and so what would days it was today, today’s the nine. So this only represents nine days worth of trade though plenty of time in the month to retrace all of this or continue to go lower.

00;11;25;10 – 00;11;36;07

But if this thing goes and settles with this low 330 and change, let’s say this thing settles at 330. You completely engulf the previous month’s price action. I think this turns into a freefall.

00;11;36;09 – 00;11;37;03

I would agree.

00;11;37;06 – 00;11;55;21

Until you get to like 260, until you legitimately get down in the two and I’ll be 65 and you got to be super careful of theater. Cattle here is showing signs of weakness. I mean, this is a weekly inside out. So this is if you look at this one right here, this one, this up for you guys. So this pattern is pretty unique.

00;11;55;25 – 00;12;14;07

It’s an inside out down where you take three candles basically. And let’s assume this is how the week closes right late Tuesday. But these three candles right here you settle inside the body. So like you think about it just from a narrative perspective, this thing tried to rally into new highs, failed and then settled inside the body of the previous.

00;12;14;07 – 00;12;36;23

So a little bit of indecision and then over the weekend thought about it and was like, nope, we’re going to break this three bar pattern right here is a pretty good indication of weakness inside a out. It’s basically like the general term. But yeah, I mean this is again thinking about just this thing tried to get into new contract highs, failed to do so, had some indecision and then like after that was like now we’re going to fall apart.

00;12;36;29 – 00;13;02;12

So agreed, agreed with you on everything that you said. My one question is you blow that up one more time and then go down to the price point of like 310. So, okay, that same formation was happening at 300 to 310. And then we did nothing but rally from there on a weekly basis. So when you say be careful on the on the cattle side, now you got to be careful on both sides because you can get caught in, everyone thinks is going to be rolling over.

00;13;02;12 – 00;13;13;03

We’re into new highs. We got to come down the chart tells you is going to roll over, and then all of a sudden bam! We hit 300 and then we rallied back to 360 and some change.

00;13;13;06 – 00;13;29;09

So I’m not going to agree with you in the sense that this is this is inside the body of the previous candle. This is not. That said, I see exactly what you’re saying. And that’s why I think we started this conversation with we seen this movie a few times. To me, it’s still in the environment of like the aggressively buy puts.

00;13;29;09 – 00;13;44;27

It’s that you can are you taking unlimited risk? Not for me. But you know, again I think this is if you’re looking at spot ticket short, this is, I think giving you some indication that yeah, there’s potential for this thing to roll over. I mean, we look at this on a monthly basis. This goes back to this time last year.

00;13;45;00 – 00;14;09;24

There has yet to be a month for a full year where we’ve been lower a full year rate. That’s crazy. Yeah. So yeah, I think you got to be super mindful of of the longer term charts. We typically look at this on a daily basis. Right. And here it is on a daily. And if I could just draw this bad boy there’s still plenty of room on some of these longer term upward trends.

00;14;09;24 – 00;14;22;28

And let me make this a little bit cleaner. There we go. But on some of the shorter term ones, it’s getting like if you take it from like here, right. So this is where it started to go. There we go. Not looking great man.

00;14;23;04 – 00;14;24;02

Not looking good.

00;14;24;04 – 00;14;30;13

It’s just not looking good though. Yeah a little bit of a warning sign. Just saying it goes with like your polar bears motif by the way.

00;14;30;13 – 00;14;42;06

It does. But this is the one chart that we’ve looked at that I’m not bearish on. This is the one that I am not bearish on I think I think tomorrow we’re gonna have a big fake out where it’s like we’ve seen it before. Just to your point of we were down eight nine. We were limit down today.

00;14;42;08 – 00;14;47;13

So a little bit of a different story I think we gap lower in the morning and then we rally this thing higher.

00;14;47;17 – 00;14;49;12

You’re looking like a check mark. Like.

00;14;49;15 – 00;15;01;19

Yep. Exactly. Exactly. Okay. Again just from what I see we’ve seen the song and dance many times where everyone piles on. It’s like, oh, it’s time to get short feeders. And then as soon as they do, it’s like, whoa.

00;15;01;20 – 00;15;18;25

Oh, that’s what I’m saying. Be careful here. Be careful here. You trading with this little stop then. Sure. You got to stop it or something like that. Let’s throw this. But yeah, I think if you’re looking for an opportunity to be shorter or like a technical ration, it’s giving you somewhat of a signal. Here it is. It is showing signs of weakness.

00;15;18;28 – 00;15;20;06

No, I think that’s an unreasonable.

00;15;20;06 – 00;15;26;13

It is. It is until it’s not, you know, movie that’s from.

00;15;26;15 – 00;15;27;19

Gosh, I should know this.

00;15;27;19 – 00;15;29;17

I just made it up. It’s not really from me.

00;15;29;20 – 00;15;34;00

All right. Sounds like it’s from a movie. No, I know, I swear. I’ve heard that movie.

00;15;34;02 – 00;15;34;19

You just ask me.

00;15;34;19 – 00;15;42;09

Every time I saw it. I saw it in Game of Thrones episode two. Here’s the season one. Episode two. You’re still on episode. Season one, episode one. So you’re still watching.

00;15;42;11 – 00;15;47;26

That’s right. I swear. I just wanted to stump you, that’s all. It’s not. I don’t know what it’s from. It’s just not that nice.

00;15;47;28 – 00;15;49;00

All right.

00;15;49;02 – 00;16;08;17

All right. Well, we appreciate your intrinsic look at all these markets. We didn’t have anybody that came in and want to see any charts this week. So next week, if anyone does want to see anything, feel free to email us, call us, shoot us a text, let us know somehow and we will definitely jump on charts. But for that, it’s going to do it for myself, Andy and Paige.

00;16;08;17 – 00;16;14;05

Everyone have a great week, even better weekend and we’ll see you next week right here. Ever, I expect.

00;16;14;05 – 00;16;19;22

Doc, why don’t you take a look at the Saja boys and tell me which color wig I’m supposed to wear, because there’s like, I think there’s five.

00;16;19;24 – 00;16;21;12

I’ve never heard that show before in my life.

00;16;21;14 – 00;16;27;07

It’s a movie. And they just they just they just greenlit a second one. Just so you know, you want to wear your first one, get caught up on it.

00;16;27;10 – 00;16;31;06

I mean, I got a very pretty busy schedule, but yeah.

00;16;31;07 – 00;16;32;01

He’s got a pretty busy…