Cody and Andy are back breaking down the latest moves in the markets. Butter is sliding hard—spot and futures both looking weak—while coffee is once again testing that stubborn $400 ceiling. From chart gaps to head-and-shoulders patterns, we cover the hot (and cold) action. Grab your mug and tune in for this week’s Tech Talk!
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Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.
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Future trading involves risk and not suitable for all investors. Content provided in the site for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy with Paige in the background, pushing the buttons, pulling the levers, keeping us all in line. We all make up the Tech Talk trio coming to you live Tuesday afternoon. It’s about 412 Eastern Time. 312 central. Andy, how you doing?
00;00;28;15 – 00;00;44;16
I’m just waiting for you to say, like, whatever time it is. And like, West Coast. No, more like international because it’s TikTok’s glowing global member. That’s true. What time is it on like the Prime Meridian right now? Like that’s all we need. I feel like you should start a business and call the Prime Meridian. Nobody will know what you do.
00;00;44;18 – 00;00;47;26
It’s just, I just. I work at the Prime Meridian,
00;00;47;28 – 00;00;49;05
Corporate shell company.
00;00;49;09 – 00;00;51;06
That’s. It sounds cool. I like the name.
00;00;51;08 – 00;00;55;22
That’s fair. We did a couple different, requests. They also one, I think, from last week.
00;00;55;22 – 00;01;04;06
Yeah, we got a follow up, one from last week, and we’ve got two charts that basically was the same thing once the spot market, once off. But it’s just been like the hot ticket item.
00;01;04;08 – 00;01;05;18
So hot right now.
00;01;05;21 – 00;01;13;09
Spot butter. It’s hot right now. I mean it’s I don’t know could you call it hot. It’s cold. It’s like it’s in it’s in a free fall. So it’s like a hot potato. Nobody wants to hold it.
00;01;13;13 – 00;01;20;15
We’re done. Five and a half suns today. Limit down. We’re gonna look at a second of a futures limit down many of the months.
00;01;20;17 – 00;01;39;07
We looked at this before. So this is the spot market right. And if I just draw this we had this line basically right here. It was it. It’s fill in this gap from way back when. But also assuming we close here this week or lower. Yeah. So last week we did technically close. It was by a just a just a hair there.
00;01;39;07 – 00;01;39;26
Look at that guy.
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Just a hair.
00;01;40;28 – 00;02;00;08
We technically close below this low last week. But then we always talk about it like where does the next candle open and does it cement that close. And it sure did this week, assuming we close to this week. So it’s only Tuesday, right. So we still could we could just rip higher and then we’re, you know whatever. But this response to closing into new lows for this new hardware, you have to go back.
00;02;00;08 – 00;02;14;26
You haven’t seen a close this low last week since 2021. Yikes. I don’t know what else to say other than yikes. So and then this week so far opens lower. It’s assuming we closed here or lower this week. I mean you’re going to stick that. It’s just this none of it looks good.
00;02;15;01 – 00;02;20;19
That’s somebody to actually like where’s where’s the next testing point button I think you thought before is it’s like catching a falling knife here.
00;02;20;19 – 00;02;32;15
I mean you can make the argument that there is this guy right here, right. And you got to go way back. 185 oh my gosh. Like, when did you start working here?
00;02;32;17 – 00;02;33;21
Nine years.
00;02;33;23 – 00;02;54;18
Nine years of that. Nine years. Let’s go take a look. Yeah. You’ve been in the two handle. You know, except for we had Covid right. And that definitely depressed prices for the most part. But if you go back throughout your tenure outside of Covid, we’ve been over $2, right? For the most part, $2 has just been this number.
00;02;54;23 – 00;03;10;16
But now you’re you’re you’re encroaching on that number. It’s getting it’s getting a little dicey. You know, like I said, you close below this point right here. Haven’t seen it close this low since, you know 2021. And the market really accelerated once it got out of this gap. I mean, you could certainly argue this, right. There was a breakaway gap.
00;03;10;18 – 00;03;11;26
Gaps are unfinished business.
00;03;11;28 – 00;03;13;09
Yikes. Yeah.
00;03;13;11 – 00;03;15;27
Yes. It just looks weak. Acting weak. Yeah.
00;03;15;27 – 00;03;21;12
If we just roll right into the futures this might just solidify everything that we were just talking about for butter.
00;03;21;15 – 00;03;37;11
Yeah, right. So this is October. This one came at request. I’m sure. You know, if you look at like, November, December there. Well, these are all gonna look pretty similar. So that said, we’re looking at October right now. I mean, you’ve just got a lot of classic stuff, right? I mean, you’ve got look at this. Oh look at this guy.
00;03;37;17 – 00;03;59;20
Bam. You have a nice head and shoulders that formed nice and shoulders. And then when she broke the neckline here, I mean it just turned into right here. I mean gosh it really came right through. It just hasn’t looked back since. Yeah. And what’s what’s interesting about this is that this is a nice steady downtrend, right. It’s not just it’s not a free fall.
00;03;59;22 – 00;04;24;18
It’s you know, trying to kind of consolidate a little bit breaks trying to consolidate a little bit breaks. So you could argue that we’ve got you could say you know wait one wave two. If this is wave three then you would add about an additional 25% to this. So you’d say like here plus some more right. Which let’s just go back here for a second.
00;04;24;18 – 00;04;49;25
What’s the current spot. Spot is two 18.5. Let’s just add that in real fast. So spot market is telling us butter’s roughly around here somewhere right. Let’s draw that across for let’s just take this bad boy. Let’s just go like this. We’ll add another one, maybe kind of get ourselves close back to to like 230. And then you’d probably, you know, bang in a new lows.
00;04;49;27 – 00;05;08;15
It wouldn’t be as pronounced as wave three. Right. So I took that line and added it on. So let’s do this. You keep taking spot down. Maybe building some premium to the futures can been here and so long right. But either way it’s certainly acting like there’s more room to go. And it’s a nice stair step down. It’s a nice low weight move.
00;05;08;18 – 00;05;09;10
Yikes.
00;05;09;12 – 00;05;12;11
So 210 $2 is probably next.
00;05;12;16 – 00;05;38;19
It sure feels like it. I mean, and like I said, there just isn’t a lot here. Like technically that would suggest though, depending on where you want to start drawing the downtrend, you know, there’s a couple different ways you could look at it. It’s never really been tested. You haven’t had like a breakout and consolidating, as I don’t even think you could argue that all this price action down here, it’s not really as valid because there’s so like this is going back into the near the inception of the contract, right?
00;05;38;19 – 00;05;54;16
All this trade is, is there was no volume, there was barely any open interest. So you’re getting this big break, but you’re doing it on big volume days. We’re getting record open interest for butter in general. Nice healthy downtrend on really good volume. Big open interest.
00;05;54;19 – 00;06;06;05
I mean even on a monthly you got to go down to 230 to 233. And then we’ve kind of hit a little bit of a lull there the past couple of years. But until you get down there as like with as much stop from this market.
00;06;06;11 – 00;06;22;23
Yeah. And especially you know, we just look at spot assuming we close here or lower this week. Last we get a new low close this week. You’re solidifying it potentially. Right. And so yeah no this looks good. Good. Now you can be able to make cookies cakes and pies super cheap this year man.
00;06;22;23 – 00;06;23;28
Super cheap.
00;06;23;28 – 00;06;30;05
All that butter. You’re going to be using a bake and then just like lather stuff up with you mean it’s just you’re just going to be like canoeing on it. So ridiculous.
00;06;30;11 – 00;06;30;29
Lots of butter.
00;06;30;29 – 00;06;38;05
Lots of butter. Seems like it at least. All right. Last one. This one came at request. This is a repeat from what, last week. This is coffee.
00;06;38;08 – 00;06;40;00
Who who got up to 400?
00;06;40;05 – 00;06;42;09
I think you pointed this out right here. Right there.
00;06;42;16 – 00;06;43;00
And we filled.
00;06;43;00 – 00;06;47;03
It. This is a weekly we filled it. And then look what happened after we tell it.
00;06;47;05 – 00;06;48;16
Look at that. Promptly broke.
00;06;48;16 – 00;07;04;03
That’s definitely a sign of weakness, especially if you get an album. This is so tight to say. Like you’re getting a potential reversal here after filling this gap. Right. And you could argue that this has been like a V bottom and but again, like this commodity, when it hits 400, it just does not like that price at all.
00;07;04;03 – 00;07;27;17
So to your point earlier it’s still the gap. Try to get to what what’s so high so far this week three 9880 so close, so close. Yeah. As soon as this thing gets to close to 400, it’s only really had one close over 401. Look at all this time. It spent around the price to see your point and fill this gap.
00;07;27;20 – 00;07;29;17
So in came a request. Ye who shall not be named.
00;07;29;20 – 00;07;33;14
I want to look back at coffee. Going to be an expensive year, maybe.
00;07;33;16 – 00;07;39;15
I don’t know, you could put butter in your coffee, I guess, like some people do. Do that. And then I’ll cheapen it up.
00;07;39;16 – 00;07;41;13
Who’s a paleo? You know? You know.
00;07;41;20 – 00;07;43;08
Then she do keto for a while.
00;07;43;10 – 00;07;47;15
Well, a little bit I don’t back on the butter is going to be cheap enough. You might as well.
00;07;47;18 – 00;07;48;05
That’s the dig.
00;07;48;05 – 00;07;49;00
We might as well.
00;07;49;01 – 00;08;07;23
Might as well. Let’s just start rolling. Nikita. Let’s. I’m in. Oh, any anything else you want to. I just like to me, it’s like. I feel like it’s kind of short and sweet, like butter looks bad. And then you’ve just. You fill this gap, and it feels like it could come back down. And coffee again. I will say, if you want to talk about the inverse of this real fast, you get it close over 400 and then open higher.
00;08;07;23 – 00;08;21;13
Kind of what we just saw in butter. But the opposite that is what I think really causes this thing to really take off. I think you have to get that close over 400 and then open subsequently higher than next week. People gotta think about over the weekend. Yes, I’ll pay over 400 for this, so.
00;08;21;13 – 00;08;23;21
That makes sense. Makes sense.
00;08;23;21 – 00;08;26;11
I don’t know. All right, well I guess look out below with butter.
00;08;26;13 – 00;08;45;05
Yeah. Well we appreciate everyone that that wrote in asking about charts. And if you have anything for next week, please let us know. We would love to take a look at them. Feel free to call an email, write text however you want to get Ahold of us if you have not already done so, please. Like and subscribe to the YouTube channel.
00;08;45;05 – 00;09;01;08
Check us out every week, along with some of our cohorts that do a few more shows for ever and that are on daily, weekly, monthly. Check those out. Totally like Andy and Paige will be back with you guys next week. Tuesday. Same bedtime, same back channel. Until then, we’ll see you guys later. Have a great weekend!
00;09;01;10 – 00;09;03;28
I love those old Adam was Batman. Those are so good.
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