Tech Talk: Butter Slides, Whey Climbs, Walmart Wobbles – September 24, 2025

September 24, 2025

Cody and Andy are back, diving into the latest market moves. Spot whey is holding firm as the dairy complex’s bullish bright spot, while butter prices keep falling. The guys break down chart patterns, gaps, and trend signals—and even sneak in a look at Walmart’s stock for the first time in our series.

Subscribe now for more great content!

Subscribe Now

Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.

[bg_collapse color=”#004053″ icon=”arrow” expand_text=”Show Transcript” collapse_text=”Hide Transcript”]

(Transcipt auto-generated)

00;00;00;21 – 00;00;10;01

Future trading involves risk and not suitable for all investors. Content provided in the site map is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;10;03 – 00;00;29;03

Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy. It is the 24th of September, just about 940 central time in the morning. That a little bit of a swap. We’re doing this on Wednesday morning. That Tuesday afternoon, like we usually do. So markets just open for a couple of these commodities that we’re going to take a look at.

00;00;29;05 – 00;00;32;03

And so far we got a whole mixed bag of emotions going on.

00;00;32;05 – 00;00;33;16

All the mixed bag.

00;00;33;16 – 00;00;34;07

I do this morning.

00;00;34;07 – 00;00;36;17

And you know what if I was any better at you about that.

00;00;36;20 – 00;00;37;13

There you go.

00;00;37;15 – 00;00;39;26

It’s just keeping people on their toes. It’s Wednesday.

00;00;39;26 – 00;00;40;06

Wednesday.

00;00;40;06 – 00;00;41;08

Morning, hump day.

00;00;41;10 – 00;00;41;24

Hump day.

00;00;41;24 – 00;00;57;06

We’ve had a few requests. We did one in particular. Yeah, we’ve had so many requests for butter. Rightly so. Right. I mean, the thing is basically just gone. Like it’s just been a straight nosedive. Straight nosedive, bombarded by butter. That’s how I like that page just threw that in our chat about it. All right. But this one’s also come in requests too.

00;00;57;06 – 00;00;59;07

This is like the shining star of the dairy market right now.

00;00;59;08 – 00;01;03;26

Spot where the only thing keeping people on the bullish train right now, I’d say, is spot way.

00;01;03;28 – 00;01;16;00

And rightly so. Right. At least because when you look at like this is what sticks out to me is just like this year, you have this and you have a couple higher lows right here. Right? You know, we’ve been all of this.

00;01;16;01 – 00;01;17;22

Year stepping our way up on this.

00;01;17;25 – 00;01;40;09

I mean it’s such a nice uptrend, right? I mean it’s not like this where it’s just like a just abrupt move with an unsustainable price action kind of thing. But a really nice stair step. But also too, it created this nice ascending triangle. So when you have this type of activity where you’re getting higher lows across a horizontal line, it basically comes to a head right at some point like that.

00;01;40;09 – 00;01;57;21

This this doesn’t this doesn’t continue. And something has changed. And in this case, you know, once you break out of that, it’s a pretty healthy breakout. And so, you know, you’ve got still some room I mean if you remember I mean this wasn’t too long ago. This was earlier in the year, wasn’t it. Right up in here.

00;01;57;23 – 00;02;02;29

Yeah. That was June. Yeah. That was January.

00;02;03;02 – 00;02;20;07

Yeah. I mean we had some 75. Yeah 70 plus sunlight to start the year up. So we’re retracing to a good healthy amount of this break that we saw. Remember every penny was what’s expensive class three. Correct. That matters for sure. And that was that way I mean like I said it’s got strength fundamentally right. Demand for the product.

00;02;20;08 – 00;02;29;15

But also to like from a chart perspective, I don’t know what else to say other than, again, once we cleared $0.60. I mean, look at that over here back.

00;02;29;17 – 00;02;35;28

We’re sitting in the middle of that gap from the very end of January right now, $0.64 on the that.

00;02;36;01 – 00;02;37;07

Well right.

00;02;37;07 – 00;02;53;12

That filled if you’re going to continue this bullish trend on the way I think if we see an uptick even a quarter of a cent now we’ve completely fill that gap. Right. And I think that’ll be a big part of today. It is Wednesday. So we have two more days of trading. This is a weekly, could happen.

00;02;53;15 – 00;03;12;17

I mean, it could it certainly could happen. But again like you’ve got a big high or low year and here you have the ascending triangle, but you could even argue goes back to here. Right. Look at all this, look at all this noise that took place. Same kind of I mean really, it’s almost like the very it’s almost the same formation, right?

00;03;12;20 – 00;03;27;04

It’s kind of uttered along this horizontal line up until you broke out of it and you continually made higher lows. Yeah. That’s a, that’s a sign of strength. And we saw what happened the last time we went. We promptly went to $0.70. So. Right.

00;03;27;06 – 00;03;27;26

Yeah.

00;03;27;28 – 00;03;32;11

It certainly has the technical makeup to go do it again whether or not it was.

00;03;32;13 – 00;03;40;28

Well yeah we would $0.70 in an accelerated fashion also. Right. It wasn’t like we kind of pills around here like we’re doing the past couple weeks. It was a it was a straight shot.

00;03;41;00 – 00;03;56;05

Yeah. No, I like I said to me in terms of like do you want to, you know, we’re going to look at a bearish chart here and stick it with butter. Right. But if you want to look you want to find something that has some like genuine bull like you know it’s got some lights to it. It’s got a nice formation to it.

00;03;56;05 – 00;04;04;17

It broke out from an area to this. Yeah. Consistently anytime you get through $0.60 up or down we the market accelerates away from that price.

00;04;04;20 – 00;04;05;11

Yeah.

00;04;05;13 – 00;04;22;04

So we’re doing that now. So yeah I mean there’s there’s certainly room for this thing to continue moving higher. And again don’t forget like every penny and wait $0.06 and flat three. So we wouldn’t know if where are we at now. So futures 66 and futures are discounted cash. So October way for example 62 have.

00;04;22;07 – 00;04;22;24

00;04;22;26 – 00;04;31;15

Let’s say we go and trade 72 I know you get it in the investor stuff. But right. Additional time is $0.60 in class three.

00;04;31;17 – 00;04;32;02

Right.

00;04;32;04 – 00;04;33;01

That’s a lot.

00;04;33;04 – 00;04;34;03

It is.

00;04;34;05 – 00;04;37;02

So got to keep that in mind.

00;04;37;04 – 00;04;46;03

It is anything. Sorry I had to move a whole lot though. That’s the interesting thing. It hasn’t budged at all. What is it, 58, $0.59. We haven’t moved a whole heck of a lot there.

00;04;46;06 – 00;04;52;16

No, it really hasn’t. So we’ll see. And you got to get that moving. Futures are saying you’re going to go do that though.

00;04;52;24 – 00;04;53;02

Yeah.

00;04;53;06 – 00;05;04;16

Or it’s worth futures are saying you’re going to go do that. I want to be respectful about the futures activity. Plus the way the chart shape that was one that’s good. So I’ll look at one that doesn’t look good I guess depends on your perspective.

00;05;04;18 – 00;05;05;24

And another what if.

00;05;05;26 – 00;05;08;04

Yeah yeah bearish if you’re bearish.

00;05;08;07 – 00;05;16;05

Hold on hold on here like we talked about this one a few different times there. Is there another little gap at a dollar 40 down there my friend.

00;05;16;05 – 00;05;21;08

Sure is. It’s circled in yellow. Oh boy oh boy right.

00;05;21;11 – 00;05;22;09

It’s sad when you got to.

00;05;22;11 – 00;05;26;23

Know I’m sorry. It’s that circle that we’ve been talking about right there.

00;05;26;23 – 00;05;35;08

Better circle here because that’s, probably next on the docket here versus dollar 50 for the dollar 40. Yikes.

00;05;35;10 – 00;05;58;09

Yikes. X is right. And I mean, you know, people I’ve had a few people ask like, when does this chart gas downside. You see no signs of that. Yeah. This is like like this is like cattle on a monthly basis. You know, just inverted. Inverted right. I mean there’s just you’ve had this little itty bitty guy right here that was green.

00;05;58;11 – 00;06;23;00

I mean, it’s so hard to see that one right there. Just a smidge higher week to week. And then just nope nope nope. So what’s a little, I would say frightening about this chart is that you’ve had several gaps there, small one to 3 or 5 that have formed along the way down. And granted, there’s still some more room to break you know, you call this one, right?

00;06;23;00 – 00;06;39;11

I mean, you were you put the hammer in the closet and we’re buying a drum while you’re banging on the bear drum. You had the bazooka out. I mean, it was like we were getting like we were getting all kinds of mail for TikTok. People talking about, oh my gosh, Cody’s actually bearish. Is it possible.

00;06;39;13 – 00;06;39;18

This.

00;06;39;18 – 00;06;50;13

Is I had somebody it was is this like a deep fake or something like that. Is Cody a deep fake. And he’s actually like you know, he’s tied up in the closet or something like that. The hammer and who knows what’s going on. No.

00;06;50;16 – 00;06;54;25

No, no. The saddest part is I’m still bearish on this.

00;06;54;29 – 00;06;56;05

You’re still bearish.

00;06;56;07 – 00;06;58;14

I’m still bearish I’m better.

00;06;58;17 – 00;07;01;11

Still extremely bearish I’m better. So like.

00;07;01;13 – 00;07;04;20

That dollar 40 I think is going to come into play I really do.

00;07;04;27 – 00;07;07;00

I mean like.

00;07;07;02 – 00;07;27;05

Because what on this chart tells you that it’s going to turn around. Besides besides the gaps that we’ve kind of left behind right now. At some point it’s it’ll turn around. But to say that we can’t get down to a dollar 40, we’re sitting at a dollars. What are we at dollar 68 as of yesterday? I mean, the way that butter’s been trading, we could be there by in two weeks.

00;07;27;07 – 00;07;43;24

Sure. Right. I mean, this thing’s moving a dime a week, right? If not more. Right? Right. Sometimes $0.07 a day. Yeah. I mean, we can certainly be there at that. The momentum is just it’s it’s so strong. So I guess to play a little bit of devil’s advocate, like, we’re hearing about a little bit of pick up and things like promotional activity.

00;07;43;24 – 00;08;06;10

And obviously, you know, we’re at a price point where we have seen exports. But that said, I mean, we’ve had you know, there’s there was certainly months along this break where we saw year over year increases over 100% in exports. And yet this continued to just punish the price. So yeah, I mean you’ve got said you’ve got this one, this one that gets filled at 155 double nickel, not that far away.

00;08;06;10 – 00;08;35;12

I mean, given the given how much this thing’s accelerating, that’s $0.13 away. That’s, you know, 3 or 4 sessions and you’re there, right? This 140 number. It’s just a question of when do you know, when do we clear the market? Maybe with promotional activity when you start to see like two for one stuff and stories that’ll take time with, you know, going back to it, I think if you’re looking for a spot to say like enough is enough, I think you really have to see something like, like this.

00;08;35;15 – 00;08;36;12

00;08;36;14 – 00;08;57;03

Let’s go back to there’s a couple instances of this. So you have like this three bar pattern followed up with this guy right there. Right where you have the market tries to break, comes back a little bit. And then after over the course of like three bars is unchanged. Right. Ties to break comes back. And then that fourth bar opens higher above that.

00;08;57;03 – 00;09;10;15

Right. And so you kind of create this like the beginning of a V. And then we saw it again somewhat over here. You got to really go back in time that way. There it is right here. So this guy.

00;09;10;17 – 00;09;11;17

Nice little V bottom.

00;09;11;17 – 00;09;31;23

There. Yeah I mean like you need to see this type of like you know three bar pattern where you try to break and you kind of come back into it. And again like if, if that were to be the case this was Covid. So it’s a little bit of a different, you know, obviously a much different market at that time.

00;09;31;23 – 00;09;54;24

Right. But what concerns me about like current like state is that you have several you know, we talk about gaps. We know business is several gaps that you could think get quickly filled, especially if the futures maintain premium relative to this break. Right. They’ve certainly come off a lot. But when you look at like, you know, December’s 192 spot sitting at one what 68.

00;09;54;27 – 00;10;15;05

So it’s a pretty healthy carry. Yeah pretty healthy carry baked in the market. So I guess my point is that like I guess if I’m looking for anything, it’s some kind of like hammer, you know, like a three bar pattern where like the second bar is like a hammer or tries to break, comes back in, and then the third bar is some sort of like, doesn’t even have to be very much just like unchanged relative to the previous one.

00;10;15;07 – 00;10;26;02

And then that fourth one, if it moves higher, you know, opens higher, then it’s like it could be go time from like a technical standpoint. But to your point, you’re not even beginning to see that now.

00;10;26;06 – 00;10;36;02

And that’s why I, I really don’t have anything bullish, especially looking at the chart right now to say that this thing is going to turn around like there’s no patterns.

00;10;36;05 – 00;10;54;09

But there’s just there’s nothing you have to like. Like I said, we need to get that’s like I they really think the market’s looking for like that. You know Monday, Tuesday it’s down like ten or something. And then by like Thursday you know week over week it’s up like three. So it’s rallied like $0.13 off that low. So that big wick.

00;10;54;11 – 00;11;08;11

Yeah. Followed with like a higher close to kind of create that like you know somewhat hammers I always think of like buyers regret. Right. Like they had their order at the but you know, they didn’t buy it at the bottom. Had a big break already and now are starting to chase it back up a little bit.

00;11;08;13 – 00;11;09;10

00;11;09;12 – 00;11;18;26

So yeah we’re going to see that. And hey, you know what? When you start, when you bake all your cakes and pies, is this for the holidays? Man, the butter portion of it, it’s going to be cheap. Hopefully.

00;11;18;28 – 00;11;23;05

That’s the saddest thing is I was in the store yesterday. The butter in the store is not cheap. It is.

00;11;23;12 – 00;11;25;16

What was it buy you? What was a buyer?

00;11;25;18 – 00;11;28;12

Right now it’s 350 month.

00;11;28;15 – 00;11;29;20

Wow.

00;11;29;23 – 00;11;43;19

350 pound. I mean, so it’s still staying up there relative to where prices are. And I think, like that’s the the complaining point of people of, hey, prices are drifting. Why is the why is the in-store butter still the same? Well there’s many reasons for that that we can get into.

00;11;43;22 – 00;11;49;05

That’s not you know, you could do you could go to like the manager of your local grocery store. I’d show them this episode.

00;11;49;10 – 00;11;50;20

I showed you on TikTok just to.

00;11;50;20 – 00;12;00;08

Sit them down and be like, just, just watch this. Just watch just he goes over with, like, his price gun and just starts like knocking down the price of butter. You know, he said so like.

00;12;00;08 – 00;12;02;10

And now you pay me to take his butter.

00;12;02;10 – 00;12;05;04

You’re going to be a hero. And I, we’re a local town.

00;12;05;06 – 00;12;07;07

That will be my afternoon project.

00;12;07;09 – 00;12;21;11

That you project. Okay, okay. That’s a good way to spend the afternoon. Okay. All right, so this last one came at request from our fund was go fill. This is I don’t think we’ve ever looked at this one before. This one came at request from Wesco for Walmart. Walmart.

00;12;21;14 – 00;12;24;03

You’re happy local grocer are happy.

00;12;24;03 – 00;12;39;00

So. Right. Yeah. Maybe you could go sit down with them and like have them knock their prices down. I like the rice smiley face or whatever that they always have. That could be you like that or come to Walmart. I think you’d be a great creator, by the way. I think you’d be a really good greeter just sitting there.

00;12;39;00 – 00;12;56;02

You’re just like, welcome to Walmart. So yeah, let’s go. Phil, want to look at Walmart? I guess I personally have never looked at this before. So this is the new one for me. Let me and this is the first thing that catches my eye is this guy right here. And a failure to test it here. Tried to get through it here again.

00;12;56;05 – 00;13;09;01

And like obviously a 105 one if this is this this is so this is just the stock Walmart right $105 A shares minus that it looks like an M to me.

00;13;09;03 – 00;13;09;09

Yes.

00;13;09;09 – 00;13;26;19

No you got you got this guy right here. This is back in the beginning of the year. Right. Failing to get and then really. Yeah. Got beat up pretty good one in this channel. But yeah I mean not being able to get over 105 I mean that that this looks like it wants to head right back down in the here doesn’t it.

00;13;26;19 – 00;13;41;06

Create a nice little it looks like cheese, right. Kind of looks like the cheese. The block chart. And for the past year. Right. You go down to 95, 105. It can’t break either one of those support or resistance. And just the same between. Yeah.

00;13;41;07 – 00;14;01;17

I mean if if you’re bullish for Walmart, I guess what I would be looking for are breaks. Like I’d be looking at. This is like a break it’s potentially coming to buy. And if you basically get over 105 and get like a close over there and continue, you know, open the next day like 106, I don’t know, like it’s higher than that basically.

00;14;01;20 – 00;14;21;19

Then that’s a, that’s a pretty sure fire signal to get long. Just close your eyes and buy it at that point. Right. But if you have a nice technical breakout of a point of resistance that’s been a good point of resistance for I mean, how far does this go back the month? It doesn’t look bad. But again, like this on a daily basis, this is what stuck out to me.

00;14;21;21 – 00;14;41;00

Yeah I guess a trade idea you could do. Let’s say we get back into this channel, right? I mean, clearly 95 bucks has been a pretty good line, a pretty good area of support. Right. You’ve got this gap right here. I guess I got filled though. So it’s it’s tough to say that that that’s already been sold. You know if you really were bullish here this is the type of trade where it’s like you get down and back into here.

00;14;41;00 – 00;14;52;10

Do you like you do a risk reversal where you’re selling one, put in mind two calls and like use the 105 is like your new strike. Is it. If it if it crosses one, two, five it looks like it’s, it could really blow up.

00;14;52;13 – 00;14;52;28

Right.

00;14;53;00 – 00;15;09;04

So yeah I mean you if the conversely you know you’re wrong if you get like like and I think you could even tighten this up a little bit. And so basically like it really held within here and each like the time it tried to get above it quickly came back in. It looks like it’s going to go do the same thing.

00;15;09;07 – 00;15;14;23

Yeah. One little outlier was in April when we dropped to 80 bucks and then kind of pride ourselves back in the channel.

00;15;14;26 – 00;15;31;28

Yeah, I don’t make this. I mean, maybe this is a news item. I don’t know. I don’t follow this. This looks like this looks like earnings or like a news piece that came out that said like, you know. Yeah. But if it’s if that is the case, again, I don’t know if that is the case. It certainly recovered well and went back to like basically highs contract highs.

00;15;32;01 – 00;15;45;14

So if this was news it certainly shook it off really well I guess my thought you get back into this channel. If it does I think you could take a shot at being long. Let’s see you get back down into here something like that. 9697 I like that ratio. Risk reversal. We give it a shot.

00;15;45;16 – 00;15;45;26

All right.

00;15;45;26 – 00;15;54;29

Well I don’t know if they hire you as a creator. Let me know because this thing is just like literally like rocket ship. Rocket ship. I mean like it’s.

00;15;55;07 – 00;15;57;04

You’ll see a V bottom for the next hour.

00;15;57;04 – 00;16;02;29

Cody hired launch button like activated like next day, I could see you being like the presidency of.

00;16;03;00 – 00;16;04;19

Walmart slinging butter.

00;16;04;22 – 00;16;06;27

All right. Awesome. Well, I got buzz.

00;16;06;28 – 00;16;24;00

Hopefully that answers. With Echo Phil’s comments or questions on Walmart. We appreciate him asking about a truck that we’ve literally never looked at. Never was before on here, which is kind of fun. If anyone has any charts they want to look at for next week, please let us know. We should be back on the same bed time, same bat channel, but never know.

00;16;24;00 – 00;16;31;15

Things kind of happen due to some requests. Let us know what you want to look at. Until then, have a great rest of the week. Even better weekend. We’ll see you guys next week on TikTok.

00;16;31;20 – 00;16;32;11

Who knows what day.

00;16;32;11 – 00;16;33;12

Though it could be. Friday could be.

00;16;33;12 – 00;16;34;08

Something to mystery.

00;16;34;09 – 00;16;34;16

Remember?

00;16;34;16 – 00;16;35;24

No next Sunday.

00;16;35;24 – 00;16;37;11

What happened? Yeah.