Tech Talk – Fairly Extremely Bullish – September 14, 2023

00;00;00;17 – 00;00;07;16
VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the statement is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

00;00;07;16 – 00;00;25;09
CODY
Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody. This is Andykindly joining me. It is September 14th, 440 in the afternoon eastern time, 330 Central Time where Andy is located. Andy, how are you doing?

00;00;25;11 – 00;00;51;19
ANDY
I’m good. Eastern. Interesting. So it’s interesting. You said it was 440 your time. 330 my time, three. Like we’re we’re moving back and forth through time here, just like by the way, you see that. So aliens exist. We saw that article earlier this week. They’re real. You’re a time traveler now. Apparently, you have that like, thing that like they have in Harry Potter or whatever where they can time travel.

00;00;51;21 – 00;00;54;07
CODY
I got too excited. I got too excited to talk it over. Spoken.

00;00;54;09 – 00;00;59;16
ANDY
You travel like back or travel somewhere in time and tell us where charts are going. Can you do that for us?

00;00;59;19 – 00;01;16;03
CODY
I, I wish I could. I mean, it sounds like actually today all three charts are we’re going to do we’re requested by people outside of you and I. And the first one comes from our good friend Jimbo, who said you actually call no soybeans, too.

00;01;16;06 – 00;01;18;10
ANDY
I don’t know about that. I don’t know about that.

00;01;18;13 – 00;01;31;10
CODY
He said, Jimbo, I’m going back and watch him. You guys, we’re talking about the bottom and bouncing off is going to be around that 1332 mark. And if we look at yesterday, would we have 1333 and three quarters ago?

00;01;31;13 – 00;01;43;22
ANDY
I don’t know. Like I just I just look at charts as they are right now. I know you like to travel to and from time and stuff like that, like you’re coming and going in time, like who knows what’s going on, what time, year end. But all right, so this is no beans courtesy of Jimbo. Thanks, Jimbo.

00;01;43;28 – 00;01;44;12
CODY
Shout out.

00;01;44;14 – 00;02;03;18
ANDY
Shout out to Jimbo and grain feed and all that good stuff and check out all that stuff on our channel. Get there. So I don’t know. The thing that bothers me about this one is that the clear failure to make a new high longer term right now to 14 and a quarter or whatever is as high as 33 and a half ish.

00;02;03;20 – 00;02;24;02
ANDY
And it’s just it tried to get back and it’s just not it’s not that simple for me. So the two things here so the the the clear failure to make a new high but also two you’ve recently had somewhat like a cross in the secondary stuff too. So like right there, right here. So this momentum cross from positive to negative.

00;02;24;05 – 00;02;42;09
ANDY
That is saying that over the last 12 sessions is a 12. Yeah. 12 pair momentum is telling you in the last 12 sessions that prices have been declining more at a rate than they were like earlier before. Right. So you see some sometimes you see changes in momentum where like even though we’re rallying here, you’re not like here.

00;02;42;15 – 00;03;05;22
ANDY
Like if you go from here to here, the price really hasn’t moved. Right? The actual underlying itself, it actually rallied, but the rate of change has slowed down, I guess is my point. And so now for it to be negative like that, that’s a sign of weakness. We go from positive to negative. That’s a sign of weakness. And then you also have a lower high, a failure to put in a new high, Right?

00;03;05;22 – 00;03;08;03
ANDY
So it’s not looking good.

00;03;08;06 – 00;03;15;11
CODY
We can break through that 20 day moving average that we have been above for many trading sessions before then.

00;03;15;13 – 00;03;36;17
ANDY
Correct? Correct. So it’s the momentum is certainly shifted towards the bears. You had a clear like a failure here. To your point, you weren’t able to get above some of these moving averages, I guess the next step. So to me, it looks like it wants to go back and gets in that like we circled this guy right here, all this noise like that, that feels like the next stop for this chart.

00;03;36;18 – 00;03;44;25
ANDY
And if it gets through there, like 13 bucks is like this big magic number. It seems like I don’t think there was a close below $13. Was there.

00;03;44;27 – 00;03;47;15
CODY
Though, sir? Nope.

00;03;47;17 – 00;04;09;13
ANDY
Not in all this mess. I think it goes back down there and tests all this noise. Like that’s that’s my thought, right? Because like I said, you’ve got a few things, like you have the chart playing out plus the secondary indicator telling you that. And the RSI has also trending lower, but still hasn’t gotten into oversold territory. So it’s got some room to break, right?

00;04;09;15 – 00;04;10;14
ANDY
It’s not looking for Rosy.

00;04;10;16 – 00;04;14;08
CODY
The RSI right now is just kind of moving a little bit sideways, don’t you think?

00;04;14;10 – 00;04;20;07
ANDY
It’s trite? I mean, I think you can make that argument, but and I look at it from here from this point right here.

00;04;20;09 – 00;04;20;29
CODY
Yep.

00;04;21;01 – 00;04;31;01
ANDY
It’s it’s still trending lower. It’s the momentum pieces, in my opinion. One more clear, right. It’s telling you that momentum has clearly shifted hands into the bears.

00;04;31;08 – 00;04;31;28
CODY
Right. Okay.

00;04;32;03 – 00;04;35;05
ANDY
By the way, wasn’t there a football game this past weekend?

00;04;35;08 – 00;04;38;18
CODY
Hey, I think I called that one Also time drove.

00;04;38;18 – 00;04;39;24
ANDY
Did you call that one?

00;04;39;26 – 00;04;43;23
CODY
Well, that’s a few people in the office. They’ll tell you.

00;04;43;26 – 00;05;02;12
ANDY
All right, fair enough. We’re going to just we threw the word bear out there. I figure I’d throw it out there for you. Maybe a little salty for some people will say this feels like it wants to go back down. And I think let’s check out some of the Jimbo’s stuff, by the way, about grains. And so some of the fundamental data, I think bear in beans breaking is a little bit counter to some of the fundamental stuff that’s here can’t happen.

00;05;02;19 – 00;05;10;01
ANDY
But that’s that’s my opinion. I think this thing needs to come off a little bit still, but we’ll see. Yeah, we shall see.

00;05;10;04 – 00;05;14;28
CODY
What this comes from. Our good friend Darlene from Carlene.

00;05;15;00 – 00;05;17;04
ANDY
You were singing the Jolene song earlier, weren’t you?

00;05;17;05 – 00;05;18;07
CODY
It’s a great song.

00;05;18;09 – 00;05;21;06
ANDY
Give us a personal rendition.

00;05;21;08 – 00;05;22;18
CODY
Maybe on another episode.

00;05;22;20 – 00;05;43;17
ANDY
Maybe. I’ll think you were saying now. You were singing earlier, and I don’t want to say goodbye. I drew this line, so I forgot about this one here for a second. But see how we’re going about this. Good. About that. This has been a pretty long term. What do you got? This has been a long term resistance, has been a downtrend that the market’s been holding in.

00;05;43;17 – 00;06;02;29
ANDY
Right. And when it tried to rally, the momentum failed here, too. It’s been sideways on all this junk right here. So that’s not really giving you a whole lot of news. The only thing that sticks out to me here is that for the first time, you’re seeing like a breakout of this of this right. Plus, like now it’s actually maintaining over that breakout.

00;06;03;02 – 00;06;22;04
ANDY
So what it kind of reminded me of when I started thinking about it more was so this is a monthly of corn, right? And so I know this is over a much greater period of time. But you had this big break and you tried to rally back a little bit, came back down and then traded sideways for a while.

00;06;22;07 – 00;06;51;09
ANDY
I think we’re getting ready to do that and then rally back. Right. So if you look at it, it looks somewhat similar. So to me, I think this like I think we’ve broken we tried to rally back, came back down, but now you’re starting to inch yourself out of this downtrend. And I think if the longer we trade sideways, the psychology I think is going to start to creep in where it’s like, you know, hey, we just broke from six bucks to 480 and we just keep trading sideways and we got out of this downtrend.

00;06;51;09 – 00;07;02;17
ANDY
Do I want to be do I want to be selling it here after such a big break? And now we’re not getting as much technical confirmation either. I would say a lot can change like harvest. I mean, if you guys started shop once, what’s going on at family dairy?

00;07;02;19 – 00;07;26;27
CODY
We’ve gotten a little bit too much rain the past week. I’ve really noticed anybody here in Michigan dropping very much, just a little bit too much moisture going on. But like you said, once you get that confirmation of what’s really happening out there, it’s obviously going to change this chance one way or the other. But right now, I think if you’re going to feed some of these, the better side of things, you need to close a trade to 473 and a close below that.

00;07;26;27 – 00;07;48;01
CODY
I mean, we’ve gotten to 473 multiple times since the middle of August and haven’t been able to break through there even with a report yesterday where was our low for 74 and a half the day before, the lowest for 73 and a half. So you just you can’t seem to break below that magical number of this one.

00;07;48;03 – 00;08;07;19
ANDY
Yeah, I agree. And the longer you trade sideways, of course I agree. It’s is the truth. Right. So but the longer you trade sideways, the more I guess the more confirmation you get of this breakout. Right. Can we call this a breakout? It technically is because it close third here and then it’s kind of cemented it today. Right.

00;08;07;19 – 00;08;32;21
ANDY
Didn’t come back down. But yeah, I mean, it’s going to be like if the longer we trade sideways here, I think the more prone this market is going to be to at least some sort of retracement. Right. Because it’s like the market’s basically it’s now it has to go trade to your point below that 473 area. It doesn’t and then, oh my gosh, I so I just did that look where look worth 30 a third of that retracement is.

00;08;32;23 – 00;08;34;24
CODY
Right above our favorite little.

00;08;34;27 – 00;08;36;26
ANDY
Bit that Richard.

00;08;36;28 – 00;08;37;28
CODY
Yeah.

00;08;38;00 – 00;08;38;24
ANDY
Look at that.

00;08;38;24 – 00;08;41;04
CODY
Richard All right so.

00;08;41;06 – 00;09;02;26
ANDY
Yeah to me like the risk reward here in these corn and let’s, let’s make sure Billington all Bilbo knows to you. I’m sure he’s watching and he’ll want to have a commentary about these corn, So I’m sure he’ll, we’ll have on the show and we’ll see how he does. But I like the risk reward here. I think is is if like here was last year your price for a dish if you know you’re wrong if we close below for 73.

00;09;02;29 – 00;09;24;13
ANDY
Yes I think you can take a shot at being trying to be a little long here, especially the longer we trade sideways. Long way. Trade sideways. I think, you know, you’re building the base now. This becomes that much more like a rally there, becomes that much more like the potential growth then I certainly wouldn’t be a seller until you got back to your point that close below for 73, I think you have to get that for you can start establishing they aren’t getting aggressively short.

00;09;24;13 – 00;09;31;04
CODY
They’re and again, we haven’t been able to do that for trading around here the past month at least. Sure.

00;09;31;06 – 00;09;43;08
ANDY
So but I do think it’s significant that we broke out technically did break out of this downtrend. Can we get a few more days of consolidation to cement it? If so, then I think this gap, you got to start thinking about a potential retracement of this big.

00;09;43;08 – 00;09;44;10
CODY
Move right now.

00;09;44;12 – 00;09;58;28
ANDY
We’ll see. You’re going to be out there just like, you know, chopping corn and lightning or buy and so on. And who knows what’s going to be happen over there, across all of it, All of the above. So last one. Last one comes from T-Bone.

00;09;59;00 – 00;10;01;24
CODY
Our good friend T-Bone from Southern California.

00;10;01;26 – 00;10;09;25
ANDY
T-Bone. Hey, T-Bone, look at this thing. What do you think here?

00;10;09;27 – 00;10;17;12
CODY
I mean, this chart right here looks fairly extremely bullish, but how about a weekly chart?

00;10;17;14 – 00;10;20;20
ANDY
And I just I love your in fairly extremely.

00;10;20;23 – 00;10;23;17
CODY
I’m trying to keep it nonchalant.

00;10;23;19 – 00;10;45;03
ANDY
Nonchalant, barely extremely. I mean, both are I mean, they look somewhat similar, but they both look good, right? So the weekly had like a close I mean, it tried to kind of consult like, let’s just blow this up here a little bit. There we go. Now, again, so it you know, it tried to have this little retracement here, closing above all these moving averages.

00;10;45;10 – 00;11;05;01
ANDY
And momentum is clearly in the favor of the bulls here. Right. And there’s room to go, too. I mean, this goes back to early March 20, 22. So you’ve got some room here in the momentum piece and you haven’t crossed into overbought territory either. So there’s like the technically you got a great breakout on the weekly plus, like you have the secondary stuff confirming it.

00;11;05;07 – 00;11;10;17
CODY
You call this a long term swing. So long term swing low on this.

00;11;10;20 – 00;11;30;00
ANDY
I don’t know about a long term swing low. Where my head was starting to go was more was that’s wave one. There’s wave two. If we draw that same line, you normally want to add like 20% on the first one, right. So third way is always the biggest is that $100.

00;11;30;02 – 00;11;31;16
CODY
It looks like $100 a barrel.

00;11;31;16 – 00;11;52;22
ANDY
I think. I think that’s the next top of that chart. I think it’s a nice Elliott way that’s forming. And you know, you’ve got some room to go to $100. I mean, let’s do the same measurement here. But some spot this is the daily, right? So bam you take this at 20% let’s so I like that.

00;11;52;25 – 00;11;53;25
CODY
From our broke out.

00;11;53;25 – 00;12;11;18
ANDY
From so if you wanted to use the same if this one falls a little bit short on the daily this is these but the weekly low the weekly certainly acting like it wants to like it’s got some room so I think either way both charts are telling you that maybe both charts seem to be telling you that we get more upside.

00;12;11;23 – 00;12;23;23
ANDY
Like sometimes you see that like the daily charts are look bullish, but then the weeklies are kind of like it. That all looks good or or maybe aren’t telling you the same thing. The next two seem to be telling at the same time.

00;12;23;27 – 00;12;26;07
CODY
Coinciding bullish charts.

00;12;26;09 – 00;12;27;23
ANDY
Coinciding what.

00;12;27;23 – 00;12;28;28
CODY
We like to call that.

00;12;29;00 – 00;12;47;13
ANDY
This Skippy. I think I think still, by the way, put this in the dairy situation and outlook, the ability for the consumer to buy discretionary income by the time we go to $200 a barrel. Right. That’s makes it a little harder for people to be able to buy stuff at the store.

00;12;47;15 – 00;12;51;13
CODY
The gas tank is going to cost a little bit more to have to be filled up at that point.

00;12;51;17 – 00;12;52;08
ANDY
Just a smidge.

00;12;52;08 – 00;12;53;09
CODY
More. Just a smidge.

00;12;53;15 – 00;13;11;09
ANDY
We’ll see. I don’t know. But it’s definitely like, you know, it’s like the dollar, you know, things like that’s really strengthened. But we’re also seeing things like some of these bigger macro pictures starting to really start to play into play a role here. And if crude goes to hundred dollars a barrel, then how much is it going to cost to fill up your truck.

00;13;11;12 – 00;13;18;14
CODY
To fill the name or what a name, truck or dump truck, You know.

00;13;18;17 – 00;13;19;29
ANDY
You could call it T-Bone.

00;13;20;02 – 00;13;23;03
CODY
I could call and I think I will now.

00;13;23;05 – 00;13;25;16
ANDY
T-Bone, I think No.

00;13;25;18 – 00;13;26;16
CODY
I think it will.

00;13;26;19 – 00;13;33;06
ANDY
You could have like we could do, like all the viewers, like, you know, like, what do you want, Cody? The name is Truck. Like.

00;13;33;08 – 00;13;46;21
CODY
Throw it up there. Okay, so now we’re reaching or reaching a broad audience. We’ve had three people email us this week, Chicago, Kansas, sunny, Southern California, probably surfing, having a great time in.

00;13;46;24 – 00;13;48;21
ANDY
Surfing and then watching.

00;13;48;23 – 00;13;55;04
CODY
Like we are reaching the masses. And that’s what we’re trying to do. Have a good time going out, reach the masses and we’re doing it.

00;13;55;06 – 00;13;57;04
ANDY
Going viral, I think is what they call it.

00;13;57;04 – 00;13;58;06
CODY
So big.

00;13;58;06 – 00;14;08;18
ANDY
Time. Yeah, maybe we do that next. Maybe like you grow your hair out and then like, you know, what do we want to name Cody’s truck? We can, like, win a prize or something like that.

00;14;08;20 – 00;14;12;25
CODY
Well, let’s put a pin in that one. Hit it for the next episode.

00;14;12;27 – 00;14;13;12
ANDY
We’ll circle.

00;14;13;12 – 00;14;32;25
CODY
Back. We’ll circle back. All right, everybody, we appreciate you watching Tech Talk in our fantastic conversation that we don’t have to be charts until next time that’s going to do it or anybody. Please write in. Let us know which charts you want to see so we can do the same thing next week. But go have a great weekend and even better week and we’ll talk to you later.

00;14;32;28 – 00;14;33;07
ANDY
Bye.