In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss spot whey, cheese, butter and nonfat.
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(Transcipt auto-generated)
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Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the strike is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
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Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am CODA. He is Andy. Together we make up the tech talk duo, I guess a tech.
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Talk is a duo, but I’d say it’s more a trio.
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It’s like a trio.
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Page and like what’s what’s a four person because their cat always comes in the frame or forget was like quadruplets or something like that.
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Yeah, let’s say trio. Trio sounds better.
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TRIA Fine. It’s been a hiatus for a little bit and that’s okay.
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You were gone then. I was gone. But we’re back now, so.
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I don’t think I was gone or.
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You’re gone two weeks, you orient.
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And I can barely remember what I have for breakfast. Then two weeks ago, that was a lifetime ago.
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We’re back. It is the middle of March that 70 degrees outside in the Midwest. A little bit of rain. And the question.
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For you, what are you doing for St Patrick’s Day?
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Nothing, Not I have no idea. I don’t even knowing it as.
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I’m pretty sure it’s on Sunday, isn’t it? Now.
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I have no plans to come to Chicago.
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I have to go watch the river, get dyed for.
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I want a little bit. You know.
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You get some green behind you. Yeah.
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That’s true.
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It’s your lucky charms. Like. You know what? Get a ball. Lucky Charms can watch the river getting dyed greens. Patrick’s Day. There you go. It’s my green beer or something like that. I don’t know.
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This tech talk. We are doing all.
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Right into an all business, all talk. Mr. Cody. Mr. Meetings. We call him Mr. Meetings now is all business. He doesn’t have one. There’s no green beer. There’s nothing. We’re not talking about anything. But let’s go all but all the time. We’re doing all the spot markets today in.
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Order to.
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Start with way dry. What do you think Your boss, what do you think your boss looks like?
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It’s going a little bit to turn around here. It’s been pretty perky.
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Today’s Thursday, isn’t it? Turn around. Tuesday.
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It was like turn on Thursday. Here.
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Turn around Thursday. I would agree. I think we didn’t touch anything last time we took a peek at this and it’s breaking out nicely out of this little downtrend that was in for a while, right? I mean, it’s broke out, had a nice test right there, kept going. And you’re not if you want to establish like a new new no new new trend, it’s humming right along.
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I don’t really have much to say other than like, I think you’ve got to be super mindful of that guy right there. is it a gap?
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The 50 $0.50, Right.
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Your favorite right there. Yeah, it’s I mean, especially since you’re getting this kind of like nice round in action right now. We try to take a stab at $0.40. Couldn’t do it and we traded along that price for some time in that area was once resistance becomes support here and I think that’s going to be meaningful. So I guess the big danger would be is if you break this trend, right, we’re clearly establishing a new trend.
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So I would say this is actually a healthier price action than if you just like went straight up, right. That’s on sustainable. But to see these kind of just stair step in like this, that’s a nice established trend.
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So what we’re looking for a trend trend is your friend.
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A trend like Cody is your friend. Page’s cat, on the other hand.
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Not so much.
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Not anybody’s friend knocking over everything on a table, coffee, the whole thing. It’s ridiculous. Out of control. This cat’s out of control. Next one spot cheese. Let’s go to. This one’s getting dicey, that is.
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Yeah.
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What do you think here? What do you think?
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It’s really looking like it’s making them kind of a hammer formation. It is Thursday, Tomorrow’s Friday. So we have one more day of trading there, right?
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You’re talking about this candle right here? Yes. This week’s candle. To me, what we’ve seen here, I feel like it’s going to be twice now. So you had this low failed to put in a new low here. Yep. Broke out of a downtrend here. Right. Broke out and are now attempting to fail to yet again make another low.
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Right. So you just have a nice, nice little stair steps. It’s somewhat reminiscent of way where you broke out of a long term downtrend and now like, seems like you’ve trended in a new direction. Very choppy here, though. That’s like it’s a little bit different because the way that consolidation and made it the higher this has just been job sitting right futures though are telling us especially like even up front like April which starts pricing next week time to judgment by the way about pricing basis loaded.
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Let’s go. But where is April Cheese right now? It’s going to take a quick pick. April Cheddar one, 6120. Yeah, I had it right.
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There you go.
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About that. Perfect. So this price point is where futures are time. This is going to go in our next pricing map. It certainly feels, you know, we’ve been seeing like continued declines in milk production. We’re certainly discounting the rest of the world is just in cheese. Right. And so this feels like something that can can hold here. But I guess the real danger is let’s say it doesn’t come off a characterize in disaster, but like if you broke through this price, which is one 3856, so just call 138, settle on a weekly basis that gets through this price.
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This is a failed breakout at that point. Right. And then it can get really dicey. Now, you’re talking about going back down to this point, 130 for futures. Obviously saying that’s not going to happen. But suppose it does. You could have a pretty big wash out of the futures at that point.
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It seems like every time we get down to this dollar, $35.40 number, we have a massive uptick in a very fast way.
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You’re certainly not wrong.
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And then it just becomes a fact of, okay, can we sustain $62.80 in between there? And I think that’s a big question on everybody’s mind right now is if that happens, is it sustainable price action?
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For sure. So I think to me, it’s we’re at a price point where the market likes to start to move like it doesn’t really like to sit still here. I mean, if you just let’s just take this line. Let’s get rid of this for a second. Drive this bad boy all the way across. It prompted a breakout. When we got here, it ripped higher.
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It tried to gap lower last time I came here and then ripped higher. Right. I look at this and say it’s a price point. The market really doesn’t like to sit still. I guess for me, I look at it and say, like the futures are trying to tell us something. I don’t necessarily feel like we’re going to go and break through this.
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I guess if I had to pick one, I feel like this gap is the next thing to get. Go take a quick look at. Just be mindful. I mean, I think if we’re going to have a big wash out in the futures, we need to get through this 38 and a half. And if we do say bye bye.
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So anything else you want to add to there?
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No, that answers that question.
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So that answers that question. Okay. So you’re thinking, though, if we’re doing coty’s, call Coty’s corner. This should be like a new like stick attack that by the way, it’s either coty’s call or coty’s corner. Maybe we can have like a, like a poll or.
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I mean, if we’re doing my call, we should put that into a poll, by the way, see what people want us to name it.
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Coty’s Coty’s call or Coty’s corner.
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Right. Let us know what you mean. Listen, if it’s my call right now, it looks like it feels like we’re going back to dollars 60 inches was up today pretty substantially, especially in the block. And it just feels like kind of gaining a little bit more of that momentum higher.
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So you’re thinking this calendar on?
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Yeah, Yeah, exactly.
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Yeah. That gap is I would agree And to your point too, this is the high for the week, right? One 4709 Let’s say we go settle on 47 tomorrow on average. So last traded price 145 and a quarter. So if we’re up $0.02 tomorrow which isn’t that much you’d have to your point, pretty cut and dry hammer. Right.
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And that is typically a bullish reversal. Yeah. We’ll see if you did that and then open higher than on Monday then. Yeah, it could be go time, go time. Cody’s corner. You know you need like a fireplace back there and stuff like that and like, like a smoking jacket. Yeah. Welcome to Cody’s Corner. we haven’t voted yet, by the way.
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It could be Cody’s.
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Call the butter.
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What, you think your boss.
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And tomorrow is seems like do or die. Time for butter here. You get up around.
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Almost.
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85 and it’s like, man, we tested there four weeks in a row. Now, if you’re going to go I mean, obviously we have to get through that point to get to our gap that we had circled at 310. You know that when we have on the chart there.
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But and this looks like to me as an ascending triangle, isn’t it so real fast? A sitting triangle is usually a bullish pattern. Right. And what it is is basically you keep seeing higher lows as you bump up against a horizontal like a flat price. Right. So it’s making this going to like triangle and then it becomes your point kind of do or die time.
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I mean, you could have another week of kind of looks like very small consolidation.
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I was just going to ask you this. You think we’re going to kind of consolidate that triangle?
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You could see like another candle like this one doing weekend in 811 or something like that, or even smaller like this guy over here, something that stays within the bounds of the triangle. But like, ultimately what’s going to happen is it’s going to be do or die time, Right? What’s nice about these patterns, though, is that it gives a pretty clear indication of a breakout, but in both directions, like let’s say a 286 settle, then this gap is like especially with how quickly butter moves.
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I mean, this is just like we’re right in the crosshairs. But if you break this trend right here, then you have to start talking about getting back down into this stuff. Right where we had it was choppy, but we did consolidate here for a little while. That feels like it’s come in here in the next call it two weeks, like right around the time Easter’s over.
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But that what a coincidence. We’re expecting volatility and butter right around Easter. I think we should do an Easter episode where you have like pastels on like a light blue and like a light pink or it’s just like your corner smoking jacket, pastels, whole thing, just grow your hair out. We’re going. But yeah, now like this looks like an ascending triangle to me.
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It’s a prelude to volatility. It’s usually a bullish pattern. So the next step would be, let’s say you get it to 86 close or better, which not that far away, correct? I mean, it really isn’t too 8579. So let’s just I mean, let’s give it a little bit. What’s the high here? This high is to 85. This high is to 84, 75.
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Now, let’s just say you get it to 86. Close the ties to 85. This looks this looks good. Looks like it wants to break out and then go quickly fill this gap.
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Agreed. I agree.
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So bullish class four on one side, not so much bullish, Class four on the other side. So this test, look at that. If it tried to go past your test and fail, depending on how you want to look at it.
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So it gives us no mass. So now the question is, do we go down to.
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Where we haven’t touched any of these lines?
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Right. Right. So do you go down to a dollar ten where your other line is on it?
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Sure. Failing to make this this the mean. We were trying to go for this Elliott wave. Yeah, certainly failing to do that. Right. And so what’s this guy right here? Let’s take it off.
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115.
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So what number is that? 115 and some change. Okay. That right there is that low. And what’s interesting is the market took a shot at stabbing through that last week. This is this week’s handle last week failed to do so open lower in its take. It looks like it’s going to take another shot at it. So to your point, what’s interesting about this is that if it breaks through that 115 and a quarter area, it could end up looking like, dare I say, April milk here recently.
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Look at that arm. Right? Once it broke through here, it was like, poof.
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In a way we go.
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In a way we go say bye bye. So, yeah, I mean, it’s kind of like butter at 26, right, and whatnot, tied at 115. Get a close below that. It could be a quick trip back and it’s like we’re talking about like sub 110. So we shall see.
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Where you go.
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Inspect somebody yesterday about class four futures. They were mentioned that yesterday. I think there’s literally no volume for next to no volume. Only a handful of cars traded if that there’s been so little volatility in those futures and cash markets. Right. It just feels like we’re kind of stuck at the same spot.
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So after we had so much volatility the past three months.
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Correct. So now it feels like the tables may be turning a little bit. Both of those charts are kind of at the precipice of having some pretty volatilities. You know, that said, like class for I mean, shoot, we could just go butter and go to want to wait nonfat and not see as much volatility in a class for for sure.
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Now that’s on everybody’s in class for obviously there’s people that have concerns about specific butter and nonfat so that’s something to be mindful of. It feels like class for like the products themselves butter powder about to get pretty volatile so.
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Well I mean that’s our spot.
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All time. All the.
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Time. Jeff Zucker right there.
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I’ll spot all the time. The trio plus a cat.
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We’re doing what? We’re doing big things over here. Big things really make things funny.
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Is that like, so Page’s cat is orange. My cat is orange.
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I don’t have a cat. I don’t have a dog.
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Doesn’t have a cat. Don’t have a dog. It have a turtle.
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All right, well, that is going to do it for this episode of Tech Talk, which is tuning in right in for the next episode. We will see you next week.
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Make sure you hit the subscribe. And by the way, yeah.
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I think sorry, I had a call. We got to wrap this up.
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