In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss the euro, cocoa, May corn and July butter.
Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.
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VOICEOVER
Future trading involves risk and it’s not suitable for all. Investor contact provided in the strike is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody. He is Andy. We are the tech talk crew coming to you live on the 20th of March 2020. For Andy I doing what?
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Cody? If I was any better, I’d be you.
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It’s I like to hear my friend.
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Or Page’s cat. I don’t know one of the two to get out of the way now, by the way. I will.
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I can promise you. I can promise you I will never own a cat by choice.
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Okay, so you say. So you’re saying there’s a chance.
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So you’re saying the only way that I’ve physically thought about this in my future is if, like, I get married and she has a cat, it’s either me or the cab. It has to go. I may pick me. I just don’t like I don’t like hair, right? I don’t like.
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I can tell.
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I like your hair gets everywhere. I’m not a cat person. They’re meowing, they’re crawling, they’re hiss.
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And don’t wait a minute. After cats don’t really shed. I mean, we can have like a cat discussion if you.
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Are not here to offend anybody. If I do, I apologize and it is what it is. But I’m just not a cat person. I just. I’ve never been. Can’t do it.
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Fair enough. So you’re like you’re more likely to get an actual like silverware set year.
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Like give me a fish with an automatic fish feeder and I’ll be okay. It’s the only pet I’m looking for.
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And we know what to get coated for Christmas here.
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In us.
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Saying a Christmas. So we look at the charts.
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So we have Christmas. We have to to request out of the four charts today.
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Count out two requests out of the four first one. Yeah we’re scale still euro currency.
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Shadow fiscal filth.
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Shout out to whiskas. So thanks for that request. This one’s really interesting. Yeah so obviously we want to look at currency risk and the way these relationships with respect to the US dollar because that’s a big component in exports. You know the higher our currencies go, the euro continues to go higher, they can convert more of those into dollars and buy more of our stuff.
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All right.
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I think I believe that’s how Brian Ross taught me when I got here. Correct.
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Got it. Okay, cool. So ipso facto, if this thing starts running more. Yeah. We’ve talked about fundamentally one of the things missing seems like it’s missing from the spot cheese market or just hot spot. Cheese market, which is cheese in general has been exports. So is this.
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Their value spend? Right. The higher the euro, the more bang for the buck per say.
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That’s basically the way I see it. You know, and to your point, Mr. Rice touches. Yeah. Okay. So looking at the chart, I think what we are trying to do is establish a new upward trend and it’s doing a pretty good job of it. Yesterday we have this longer term, very long term uptrend that I started was here.
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But you really retraced a significant portion of this rally. I think you can safely say that any sort of like a big upward trend that started like here was broken. Right. And so to retrace almost all of that, it’s almost like this actually kind of reminds me of the way the spot cheese market looks next. Let’s take a quick peek at that.
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So it had this big break here, had this big break and has since trying to climb out of it so that Europe kind of looks somewhat similar. It’s interesting. Here is this 109 number. So let’s take a little page. Bam right there. One on I.
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Was in the past two days. We’ve had a lot of support at 109 in having created that. You know, it looks like you feel the AM going into 2020 for the M ish kind of formation there. And now, like you said, it kind of broken out. What do you think the next portion of this trade is?
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So I got rid of those two lines. I think you have to focus on the fact that we had this big downtrend. We broke out of it. We got to this, we cleared 109 and are trying to retrace that. And they’re obviously showing signs of support there. Right. And so to me, like a nice healthy uptrend would be you call this like the first attempt at a new low right here and rejecting it.
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This becomes the second attempt at a new low. You know, the next step would be can we clear what was clearly a resistance to? Because if you look at this like 110 area, I mean, look at how much the market accelerated lower once we broke through it. And let’s just go back process over here. You had a ton of choppy trade and then once you broke through it, we never look back.
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Right. So it tells you something about that 110 number, Right? And to me it’s like, okay, that of price, I think becomes a magnet. Right? So if we can hold here and then retest this 110 and climb through that price, we haven’t settled over 110 since. And what is this? This is Jan 12. I guess my long winded answer is that you have a clear breakout of a downtrend.
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You have an attempt to put in a higher low. That’s a positive sign. The next step would be, can you clear 110 if you can? And I think you got to start looking at numbers like these types of price points where the market really broke down from here. And I would also say look at that. Is it a coincidence?
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111 109 110 112 So the perceived numbers.
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Man Yeah.
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Okay. Put it in a higher low. Finding support here if we can continue to consolidate. And then I think the next step is testing this one time breakthrough that I think one alone becomes a magnet.
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You almost have to round yourself off of the 109 number in the next capturing session and then pop back up to 110.
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But again, this is showing signs of a potential for a nice, healthy uptrend. You go back to some of these bigger types of moves, they’re just not sustainable. This isn’t sustainable price action. You want to see a nice trend, you need setbacks, you need small retracements. So as long as you keep making these higher lows can keep going with scale.
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So appreciate the appreciate the request.
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Is it quite a bit on here? We definitely appreciate it. He’s getting up there with the.
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Panelists, longtime listener. Maybe he’ll be a caller someday. Who knows? Maybe. Which, you know, we should do. We should start allowing people to call it like.
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What’s really.
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Cool is like call in live. What do you think of we don’t agree with this one time price. Just have a conversation on TikTok. Continue to look all in. All right, cool. Next to another another request. Another one. This is Koko. Koko this came at requests 3 hours ago. So this one’s like, hot. It’s like it’s fresh. It’s fresh hours ago.
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We have this request from none other than Comrade Nelson. Right now, Comrade Nelson asks for Koko chart. We’re giving it to him. Let’s go.
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Here we go. Who do you think about this chart That’s straight up?
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I mean, this is what’s really interesting here, is that I think this is a great example. First of all, we’ve talked about ascending triangles before. Yep. I think this is a great example of one, right? It didn’t come all the way and then they off. But you had an attempt to break down ighalo up and it bumped up against this area where it broke down from.
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Right. And once it broke through there, it really accelerated. So this is a great example of an a setting triangle. You see these more often where again, you have like a continuation of a trend, right? These usually don’t start trends, but they tend to be more of a continuation. But the question that was supposed to me is should we be expecting a pullback?
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If so, what kind of price point should we be looking at? It’s tough to say you’re going to get a pullback after this candle scandal. I mean, this completely engulfs that candle. This is going to be an outside day where it’s like you completely engulfed the previous day’s range, right? I mean, just a monster candle today. So if you just look at it to like yesterday’s session not looking, you’d be a little cautious.
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Right? Right. But then, bam.
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Just like created a new high because what did we settle at? 7000.
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Right? This is a new high. Close. Yeah. If you get an open higher tomorrow. I mean, this is this is going to be rocket I guess for me it’s like, you know, Do you look for pullbacks to buy? I’m sure that would be for those that are looking to buy would be great. But it’s like he could open higher tomorrow.
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I think you have to close your eyes. And by that point I know it’s tough line like if you contract high but one gentleman in the market put it to me really well one time you’re into new contract highs for a reason. You know that to me when I look at this chart. Today’s candle new contract high totaling off the previous day’s range.
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You open high tomorrow. I think you got to close your eyes. But flip is where do I think the next major area of support come in? This is where you broke out from in the space in a triangle.
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So then it begs the question, do you wait to try to get down to 6000 or like you said, do you buy it on new contract highs just to be safe? You know, if you need to get something bought, you have a bond.
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I think you have to consider buying it here, because I really do like especially if you’re going to open higher tomorrow night, solidify this close by getting an open higher tomorrow, That’s I mean, that’s strong. Like will I be nasty? Yeah, because it’s all about perspective. You go back and look at this chart here when it broke out.
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Well, it’s already it’s already rallied. So much and you want to own it. Well, that was the right decision at the time to buy into new contract cuts. So I think you have to kind of step back from the idea that this is a new contract types. But just look at the chart. It’s like this big rally from 6000, 7000 quoting the right that this was the best they could do was yesterday session that completely punched in this.
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So, yeah, I don’t know. Are you going to able to hand out chocolate this year for Halloween?
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It’s getting pretty expensive. We’ve got a few months left, but I want to hate yourself just to be overly cautious.
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Might want to hedge yourself. You probably ought to be handing out candy apples here or something like that.
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We’re going to have to.
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We know you’re not going to hand it out any acid, so maybe you should go volunteer in like the Cat Center or something like that, or you just gifts get a chance to hang out with some.
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GASSIOTT I’d rather play in traffic, to be completely honest.
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That’s this.
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So that would be and we’ll jump on to our next chart. All right. I love animals and love them, but.
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It sure sounds like it is Next chart then. May corn just.
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Settle.
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Unchanged? Just settle and change.
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Now ascending triangle in May.
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I don’t know if I’d agree with that.
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It was Well, that’s how I have it drawn. So I was going both ways. I was. Is it a.
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Right here, I think your flag or.
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Is it a is it are you sending triangle?
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I think it’s more of a pennant where you have you know, you’re getting convergence, aren’t you. Right. Do you want to draw it from the breakout? This is a prelude to volatility, though. I’m going to I’m going to disagree with you on the idea. That’s an ascending triangle. But I think either way, we’re both going to look at that same thing.
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It’s it’s it’s like a prelude to volatility. For me. The first thing I thought of when I when I looked at this chart was this formation. If it breaks out ago, you already had a significant amount of weakness that really hasn’t been tested that much either. I mean, when you think about like this breaks in five bucks, basically ten, pretty close to four, right?
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I mean, when was there really a material test to the upside during any of this? There really wasn’t.
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No. If you broke $5 down to 480, that it just kind of collapsed on top of itself. And we probably know before.
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15 and now you’re starting to get to a price point where it’s kind of like I think about this like $16 milk. Are you going to get new sellers here? After a significant break, April Milk went from like 18 to 16 bucks. Are we going to get new sellers looking to get short make corn call around the four 4420 area after breaking from where you want to draw from five bucks down 41 right that’s actually like doesn’t top ask I have the 20 day moving average is an exponential moving average but I have a 20 day average and you’re starting to see some support around that price.
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And B, I think that’s one thing to be mindful of, but I think this pennant could get nasty. So you got another day or two of consolidation and then you broke out to the upside, especially look out. I think this is a market that could get explosive.
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I know it’s not technical, but isn’t there a Y Z report coming up tomorrow?
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You’re going to want to talk to Jimbo about that.
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I’d say check out the grain feed with Jim.
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Check out the grain c Jimbo.
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He’ll we talked about that a little bit more.
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We talked about that one.
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When you’re talking about getting some volatility in the market. And I think that next was the report from what he was talking about on his previous show was that it’s going to bring volatility to the grain sector.
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It should. I mean, I understand that this is an important report. I don’t want to discount value when I look at this information. This is a prelude to volatility. If you get a breakout, it could get kind of set out to the upside here. Again, you haven’t tested a lot of any of the shorts. You know, if there was any new sellers that have been selling corn over the last month are wrong.
00;12;05;23 – 00;12;19;17
And like if you have a breakout that can start to kind of add fuel to even more to that fire. So again, kind of reminds me of selling Abrams 16 bucks. I mean, I think I get the cash markets, check out bases loaded, by the way, to learn more about that April 16 or close to it as a premium.
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So I don’t think it’s that big of a premium. So are we going to get new sellers? They’ll get short at that price after a big break. I think corn is seen the same thing, but will still cautious here. I think I’d rather own it and sell it.
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I would agree with you on corn.
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Say we’re on the same page. All right. So last one, but certainly not least, you want to talk about a lot butter to that. A new high there. It looks like it to me.
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All right. Just check. I’m asking for a friend. Here’s a good question that I had that I will write for you from a guy who actually asked about this chart.
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yeah. Okay.
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You know, he said, please, let’s talk about butter. $3 butter question mark. After today, $0.06 away.
00;12;54;14 – 00;13;13;25
To your point, new high, close. So this is not an ascending triangle almost popping up everywhere. It’s not quite this one because you had technically a lower low. Right. Part of that, too, is sometimes you struggle with some illiquidity button like volume this. But either way to bump up against this to 90 area and then break through it as a breakout like that.
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And what’s interesting too, is you have this I mean, is this a breakaway gap? Let’s say you would have liked to have seen this settle on its high. That said, I mean, it’s one penny off its high. Again, it’s butter. It’s going to be a little bit more liquid today, size as 24 and a half. Settle it to 93 and a half penny off the high.
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Okay. It still broke out in the contract and really thinking out loud, it technically did that yesterday. Yes. And then followed through with a higher open and settled higher today.
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Correct.
00;13;41;27 – 00;13;57;12
So that’s a very strong sign that this market can continue. And it goes back to what you’re looking at with cocoa. And, you know, we can certainly look at other markets as well that show the same type of thing. And it’s like I don’t want to get lulled into the ideas like, well, it’s already had a big rally, so that means it can’t go up anymore.
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So it’s like, well, it had a big rally here then.
00;14;01;14 – 00;14;20;15
Well, that’s kind of the thing. I mean, since the beginning of February, we’ve gone from 285 to 290 back to two. I mean, we’ve just bounced around the five cent range in butter, which in butter is pretty big, as we all know. But yeah, we’d never had a breakout here or there. And then yesterday, as you mentioned, we finally broke out above 1090 and this got to go in this.
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Market, it’s like corn almost to you never really seen a big test of this of this uptrend. And again, I think about from a perspective, this was a big move. I know there wasn’t probably any real material volume, but you still had a significant amount of price action. $0.20 a pound is a lot.
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It is.
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But then you look at it and say, Well, we’ve already rallied a lot and it’s like, Well, but we can keep going. So yeah, I think you got to be cautious here. The chart certainly not giving you any reason to go it short. No. Right. And just again, out loud yesterday, new high, close. We always talk about if you get some sort of clothes like that, how does the next days open, respond?
00;14;52;18 – 00;15;09;00
Today it responded with an open higher and settled higher. So I guess flip side of that, if you basically retrace, let’s say you sell this gap tomorrow and then settle below like 290, that would be a clear rejection of this breakout. So that would be the only reason I would want to get short that yeah.
00;15;09;04 – 00;15;09;16
I agree it’s.
00;15;09;16 – 00;15;10;01
Not done.
00;15;10;01 – 00;15;18;29
That’s I would not want to get short list. We broke below to 85 I think at this point. Right. You start breaking through that long term support that we’ve had. I think that would be a good telling indication.
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I’m going to go ahead and label that.
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Way without.
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Rating sites.
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To it. All right.
00;15;24;18 – 00;15;33;16
We’ll just throw this in here, too. And he’s not getting a cab either. Not now that we know Cody’s an animal lover. And without any closing thoughts here.
00;15;33;18 – 00;15;44;10
Well, I was going to say thanks for your time on the show today, but I still would like to say that you’re actually gone next week, right? Vacation spring break, kids.
00;15;44;12 – 00;15;46;16
Kindergarten, spring break. It’s going to be your spring break.
00;15;46;16 – 00;15;53;25
So you’re gone. You’re out next week. I might try to do somebody on the show just kind of keep our momentum roll and see if there’s anybody out there. Maybe, Jimbo, Maybe.
00;15;53;26 – 00;15;58;17
I mean, I was just going to suggest, Jimbo, we post Lassie Report. We’ll see how that that pedigree plays out.
00;15;58;22 – 00;16;05;23
Yeah. Jimbo on here. See if he’s an animal lover like myself, and keep the momentum rolling until you can get back and fill those shoes.
00;16;05;26 – 00;16;20;02
You never know. I mean, he could be. I mean, he could have his own little one. You know, It’s not like a matt wasn’t there like a matt Damon, whether you’re out there or if you like, bought a zoo or something like that, like the whole family and like they decided no.
00;16;20;04 – 00;16;21;11
I have no idea.
00;16;21;13 – 00;16;22;19
All right, guys.
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Until next time. We appreciate everyone watching. If you wouldn’t mind, please punch that subscribe button, hit the notification bell, lets you know whatever page and or awesome team send out any content from ever eg give us a thumbs up. Let us know that you like us. Maybe you don’t like us. I have no idea at this point. Don’t be afraid to write in and ask for some charts for Andy not to look at it till next time.
00;16;44;19 – 00;16;49;29
Mystification will be gone next week and I will have somebody else on with me. Have a good week, everybody.
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