In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss the S&P 500, May Class III and May Feeders.
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Oh everybody, welcome back to Tech Talk I am Cody, he is Andy. For reference, it is four for 2024. At about 430 in the afternoon eastern time. There’s a lot of fours in that.
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There’s four fours in that. By the way.
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What explanation about that.
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Four for 24 at 434 fours.
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Hey I’m glad we waited this long in the day to do tech talk because I just prophesied. So far, perfectly perfect.
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It’s perfect. And we’re working on, like, our number lines and stuff like that. And there you go doing dirt counting.
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We’re doing this.
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The show started off hot. It’s good.
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It’s it’s still it’s about to be my year. I can feel.
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It. This is a year. Cody.
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Hey, before we get the show started, why don’t you show everybody your tee shirt?
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Sure, mister. Sure thing. So this show served us even hotter. So, Arnold.
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There you go.
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In Mr. Universe, true lies. I’m pretty sure that’s from Command of Mana. I think that, you know. Hey, who’s asking? Who’s counting? Let’s go. Sierra Cody, we.
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Have three three charts today. One came in request.
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And who did that come in?
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Request from our good friend Mark from Michigan. Michigan. Mark. Michigan.
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Mark. Okay. So Michigan. Mark, this is what you want to look at. Red spur S&P to.
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The S&P.
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Okay. Yep. Thanks Michigan. Mark let’s take a quick peek here is this thing rolling over here.
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well what’s interesting I when he emailed me I was actually looking at it I’m like, man we never broke below the 20 day moving average. You know, since the beginning of January. You know, all of a sudden today, as soon as we get out of here, poof, here we go.
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Gone. So when did Michigan Mark ask you to do this? Like, what time of the day yesterday? Okay, yesterday, mid morning I was going to say, because we’ve had the pretty significant break in spell in the last. What, like I’m just gonna pull a quick 30 minute bar. This seems like news related, right. So this is a 30 minute chart of today’s activity.
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So 1230 central 1:00 130. So on.
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Some pretty recent news then.
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You know, I don’t know what that news is, but it’s the price action from this has been in the last like three hours. So we’ll see. But yeah I mean this is things just been rocking I mean look how long. Yes. Like look at this upward trend. I mean you mentioned the 20 day moving average. That’s that has officially been broken and settled through.
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We also broke through this long term trend. This was on second and then confirmed that breakout here I’d say today I mean look I mean look at this. It tried to go back there today right there, you know high and then failed to do so. That’s weak not good. And then look at the secondary stuff too.
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That’s I was actually just looking at you’re crossing over the momentum right now.
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It’s officially crossed zero for the first time since. So we were negative back in earlier in the year. So that’s like a little bit of a head fake back in here. Right. But since then it’s just been smooth sailing captures I don’t know the second quick look at the monthly. I think just because of how much it’s run higher, you know, you would imagine that there’s folks that are looking at this and saying, at what point do we need to roll over?
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Because we’ve seen multiple like new highs. This can lead to a nice healthy little retracement here.
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I mean, on the monthly we’ve retraced half of March’s, but it’s only the 4th of April. So I don’t know if it’s anything to get too excited about. Maybe the fourth. It is something to get excited. I mean.
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This could get dicey. I mean, it could be a few close below. What is this like open right here, 5101. So that’s last month. To your point on the monthly you close below that and it’s just like yikes. Do you go back and test this breakout here? I would imagine to like given us stocks, that tends to be one where like, you know, the average like retail investor.
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What’s the expression? The bulls walk up the steps, the bears jump out the window. That’s not the best expression to find something maybe like a little bit more fun or.
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Yeah.
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And relevant and relevant, like water or something like that. Bears like to go down water slides and we’ll work on it.
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I think what’s interesting, we’ve seen this before on the S&P, where if you even go back into the middle of beginning of March, I mean, we started rolling over. We had three days down and all of a sudden boom and two days make new highs. Kind of do the same right here. Yeah exactly. Yeah. Yeah. The same little song.
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And so just I think moving higher.
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So I guess the only difference I would see here is that you broke through the long term trend and you’re getting a confirmation. You broke through. Tried to come back into it today and that failed to do so and are now actually through, you know, the 20 day moving average. Let’s look at one that’s a little bit longer.
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Like what is I know 50 day is one that’s usually a little bit more popular too, especially with this boom. So you still have some room on some of the shorter term ones. I think if you broke this 50 day, that would get really dicey. I guess you want to be careful here, right? I mean, I don’t know if you can just say where it’s going to roll over just yet.
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Another lower open tomorrow and you start to get some confirmation of this break. You know, this not break, but I mean, the breakout of the upward trend, it could get a little rocky here. So the old stocks I mean you’re not going to retire though right. You’re going to fall over that and call that retirement care.
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There you go. Exactly. So what do you got to worry about when.
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You have to worry that you’re going to be out there just like doing stuff and rock and roll and rock and rolling on your porch, rocking at like 90 years old, still like when you think you’re going to be doing it 90.
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Four hopefully I’m still kicking at that point on.
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So let’s just get there first.
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Audience. Yeah, let’s let’s get to 40 and we’ll see I feel there.
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Enough milk.
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Let’s go may it’s not last.
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Whoa. Third 50 higher. Oh my gosh.
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I jumped on here. This thing is really taking off.
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It’s just rocking here.
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We still 1591 today.
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So again get to your point. The settlement is actually going to be so 1591 correct. So this is where the settlement is actually going to be. So that’s where the settlement is actually going to call 92 one and two. So it will show, you know, a pretty high wick there. But you know that said do we open higher tomorrow.
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We want to be a little bit careful in saying because if we’re right back to where we are, come this time tomorrow, even tonight, you know, that trade is really occurring after the close today. Oh that’s sad. I mean, like you have this steady downtrend, like we’re actually now starting to actually test a little bit of it too.
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But I also think what’s interesting about it is that check out Bases Loaded to learn more about April. But I feel like April, you know, that has been a trade has been basically hovering around 16.5. Or is that 1549? I mean, that’s going to require some upside in cash or some kind of forecasting that we’re going to see, like maybe higher premiums or way doesn’t break as much in the as either way, like it’s forecasting some sort of like potential upside either in basis or cash way or all the above.
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So you know, we may get close to like 1575, 15 80th May. That’s just becomes a little bit more of a tougher sale, as if April’s really going to be good at 16.5. As many as a five week month to. But I mean, to me, it’s like you have you had a lot of kind of, I guess, congestion and noise in and around here, right.
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Yep.
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So we start pricing not next week, but the week after. It’s a five week month. Like if you got cheese back above, like, you know, say like 150 or something, I think you could start to see another start to go a little bit. And there’s I don’t know where you’re going to get like new sellers either. Correct. You know.
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And we’ve seen you and I were talking about this offline, but the past couple days, the volume that we’ve seen in May alone has been pretty incredible. And yesterday it was over a thousand contracts. Wednesday or Tuesday I believe was over 1000 also. And today we’re at 842. So I mean, it’s not like this is unlike volume, right?
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By any means.
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Right for sure. And I believe and if I’m not mistaken, open interest has been going up too. And that’s, you know, that’s a two way street, right. And open interest build is and you know, every one is a new seller and a new buyer. Right. So you are getting new selling here. But like I said what’s interesting is you’re starting to see some new buying.
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Let’s say we were that close here tomorrow. You know, you would have been over the opening of the last one, two, three, four sessions. Right? I think that’s a material thing. To your point, those last four sessions, not including today, it’s been a ton of volume. If some of its new selling, you’re starting to leave. Well, this new selling is open interest.
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So if you’re starting to leave some of that selling, that new selling behind, do you start to see some short covering that you know that takes place plus two? He also had to be mindful of that. We’ve really broke. I don’t think the scale really does it justice to go from 1830 1660, 1562. That’s a big break. That’s close to three bucks.
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That unto itself, I think, you know, warrants just a retracement. Back to this. Likewise, it’s 30% 33%. Yeah. 1664 right back winds and all this noise. I think that’s where we’re going.
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At that point. You’ve broken out of that downward trend because on yours, I mean I have mine drawn pretty well the same. And we haven’t quite broken out of it yet. Very flat down, very close. We tested we just.
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Tested it today.
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But not broken up.
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We have not broken up. So what’s interesting too is that you’re getting some of these secondary indicators that are starting to point to like, you know, we just took a trip into being oversold on RSI. So it was technically oversold and came back in, you know, breaking that blue line and coming back in and breaking in the blue line is a warning.
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If you’re short and coming back out of it is you know, that’s a signal to get long if you just going off the secondary stuff. Right. And then the momentum too. I think you can argue they chart technically. Right. So you had this big downward trend here that just recently got broken. And now you as you know, you’re almost like establishing like a new trend here the higher up.
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So this could get interesting. Especially if this crosses zero and the momentum shifts into the bull side. And cash has been I mean it’s just been cut sideways here one versus one 44.5. So on 45.
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Yep.
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So I don’t think you get interesting with this contract given how much it’s broken. And just kind of like the general tone feeling of the market. I mean, are sellers getting a little tired in the futures market leaning, you know, new news. We’ll see. This could get a little spicy. Spicy. Speaking of spicy May feeders. May feeders. This one’s getting spicy too.
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Oh. What do you think? Your bus.
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you know what it looks to me as if these are bear flags forming right there.
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Okay, like he’s saying. Like here.
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Exactly that. What we have propping up right now is exactly what it looks like. It was back in the 26th March, starting then.
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I totally agree with you. And I’ll supplement your argument by saying, like, I think you’re saying the same thing. Basically, but this is a big move in a single day. And so I mean, that’s down size over $5. You know, this one’s down six, right? Those are massive moves. This one’s down four and some change. But I mean like this is the best that bulls can do after that big break.
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And then bam right again. And then here we are kind of just putting around the close here. Right? I mean it basically closed same price two days later. You’re kind of you’re making this like a narrowing band. That’s usually a sign of continuation. In this case it would be down. So, technically it’s not. Look, it’s a lot.
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And then when you look at feeders, I mean, you have looked at this at length, but I mean, this is a weekly Cedar’s have had a huge run. But I mean, this is just look at this m.
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M.
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Lower high on the, you know, longer term chart. Great. Look at them. This would indicate that you’re going back down into like this area right here. This is 10 to 15%.
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Yeah. So we got a on a daily I mean when we were looking at May, it looks like you’re gonna have a quick trip down to 235 which you’re only talking, you know, a few very.
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Short far away. Right. That’s one of these days from here, right?
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Yeah. This quarter before we kind of consolidate at 235 number before in December of 2023, moved ourselves higher. And now we’re just kind of trickling the same, you know, way that we were at that point. Obviously a higher number. So I don’t know. But when you look at it on a monthly like you just did, that.
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Was a weekly. Let’s look at the monthly, weekly, weekly. The monthly looks very similar lower high. And then it looks like it wants to go back into this hammer area right here. This could get ugly, but going back to like you think about how long was feeder cattle between 140 and, you know, call it, you know, a little dip in the one 20s.
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But for the most part, this is like calling the paint. Exactly. So it feels like it it hasn’t like it’s it’s broken a lot when you look at like on a daily chart, but it really hasn’t. It’s got a lot of room to potentially break down here should it start to really fall apart. So I don’t know. This one could get dicey.
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I think you’re right though. This is like your stair step in itself down nicely. And I think this could be a quick trip. And like down in here, you know, go just go start over to speak. Yeah we’ll see. Oh 44 higher. Let’s go about that check.
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Sounds like we might have to make last three on next week spectacle. So you may have.
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Put it on the docket and let’s go. any closing thoughts? Any closing remarks?
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Cody’s corner closing thoughts I’d like to see how May opens up tonight. Honestly. And what kind of volume is there. Because if we do go back when we opened up, I think it was Tuesday. We traded like 100 cars right away. I mean, open, here we go. But boom, boom, I guess checking open interest tomorrow is going to be interesting to see what we did today also.
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Okay. But I don’t know. It’s kind of all I got. I get a little nervous to the downside on feeders. A little more bullish on me. Class three right now I think.
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You’re buying make three sell in May feeders. You’re in the you’re in the long you the class three feeder spread.
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Spread spread it.
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Out or spread it out. Sorry. Did you get an orange cat? Yeah. Or what?
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No. God, no. I have not gotten the cat, you know.
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All right. Grill or plates or anything. This could be the year.
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Which can be a good year.
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You’re going to have like, a, like a, like a parrot or something back there one day. It’s it’s going to be like now he’s got to get a parrot said, I think, I think you would do well with like a parrot on your shoulder or something like that, like a toucan on a big, like birds or something.
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All right. Well, so I figure out my animal situation, I’m.
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Out, figure out the suit.
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But we figure out the zoo here. appreciate everybody tuning in. Mark, we appreciate you emailing in. Was with.
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Mark. Michigan. Mark.
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Thank you. Shout out to Mark. everyone would please like the channel is subscribe button. Leave us a note. Tell us how much you love us or hate us. Either way, all publicity is good publicity.
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You’re just like your PR superstar.
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Glass half full. Yeah, so that everybody. We’ll see you next week.
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See ya.
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Hasta la vista, baby.
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