In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss August nonfat, spot whey and July soybean meal.
Questions or comments? Charts you’d like to see? Contact us at Insights@Ever.Ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.
Charts sourced from Ever.Ag Platform.
[bg_collapse color=”#004053″ icon=”arrow” expand_text=”Show Transcript” collapse_text=”Hide Transcript” ]
(Transcipt auto-generated)
00;00;00;21 – 00;00;09;25
Future trading involves risk and not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this book is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
00;00;09;27 – 00;00;17;17
Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody coming to you from the Chicago office. Mr. Andy Forman. Andy, how you doing?
00;00;17;21 – 00;00;18;21
I’m great. Cody, how are you?
00;00;18;27 – 00;00;23;29
I’m doing. Woman I appreciate you asking. We have actually got three charts.
00;00;24;01 – 00;00;33;06
Isn’t it? Like, isn’t this how you’re supposed to say three, by the way? Like, what was that movie where it’s like three versus like three Inglorious Basterds?
00;00;33;06 – 00;00;33;10
Yeah.
00;00;33;10 – 00;00;38;04
If you’re English or something like that, you’re supposed to do. Maybe you should. German. It’s German. Okay.
00;00;38;09 – 00;00;39;21
It was German this way.
00;00;39;24 – 00;00;42;29
Okay. Or.
00;00;43;02 – 00;00;47;19
No, this and then this. Right I don’t know, I don’t know.
00;00;47;22 – 00;00;49;17
Speaker 1
That’s the German. See.
00;00;49;19 – 00;00;50;05
I don’t know.
00;00;50;09 – 00;00;51;21
Any questions like this.
00;00;51;21 – 00;00;58;01
Great. It’s great. Like this great cinematic film. It’ll never be Tommy Boy, but it’s still top tier, right?
00;00;58;02 – 00;00;59;05
What’s going to be coming?
00;00;59;07 – 00;01;01;08
That’s what I’m saying. Best movie in time, I guess.
00;01;01;08 – 00;01;02;13
Maybe black sheep, but we’ll see.
00;01;02;13 – 00;01;05;13
Maybe, maybe Tommy boy, best movie ever.
00;01;05;15 – 00;01;13;11
Yeah, well, when you’re asking a question next time, maybe just do this. And if you really want to freak them out, do this while you’re while you’re at it. Do this in this in this.
00;01;13;13 – 00;01;18;27
This is wild. This is wild. Was wild anyway, it was wild. Request three charts.
00;01;19;00 – 00;01;23;13
Three. Three charts, three requests. First one Wasco fill.
00;01;23;15 – 00;01;25;11
Our good friend with go fill in good.
00;01;25;17 – 00;01;31;05
Friend with Scofield sometime. He’s going to be on the show. Long time listener. You’ll be a first time caller some day.
00;01;31;07 – 00;01;33;03
That’s right. What do you think about August now.
00;01;33;10 – 00;01;35;10
I ask you, tell me, what do you think?
00;01;35;12 – 00;01;39;17
It sure feels like we’re starting around this chart out a little bit.
00;01;39;17 – 00;01;45;17
Maybe get a little glow pop here or our a little rounder popper.
00;01;45;19 – 00;01;51;12
Yes, a kind of a down here. $2.18 between 118 and 120 for man. Almost a monster.
00;01;51;16 – 00;01;57;12
So I’m going to zoom out of the price action, and I’m going to zoom in to some of these secondary stuff.
00;01;57;14 – 00;01;58;07
There you go.
00;01;58;09 – 00;02;12;11
When we go fill ask past us for this one, this is the first thing that I took a look at was this right here. Right. So we had this like kind of like breakout and then failed but then came back right back out of it again. So this all right. So dipped into oversold territory. Big blue came back out.
00;02;12;11 – 00;02;24;06
That was a false breakout came back I did it again. But this time now it’s really getting away from it. So you have this confirmation. And if we’ve made the argument that these things do also trade technically. Right. And so if you do this guy right there, this is also broken up.
00;02;24;08 – 00;02;25;19
It’s kind of making higher lows.
00;02;25;21 – 00;02;41;12
Correct. And it was trending lower which is bearish because as this turns lower that’s technically bearish. Right. And then now it’s giving you the signal. If you were short you would should at least be cover. And the argument would be that it got into oversold territory and couldn’t sustain that. Yeah. You got to be a little bit careful here.
00;02;41;12 – 00;02;59;16
And then the second one too is this is the momentum piece. This is versus the last 12 sessions crossed into positive territory the first time in several months. That’s also a friendly sign. So to your point, you know, high or low, high or low crosses zero. Off we go. Next thing you breaks right here. It does. Then it can really get nasty.
00;02;59;16 – 00;03;06;10
So the secondary stuff is definitely telling you that the routing pattern you mentioned at the very least you should be exiting shorts. Yeah.
00;03;06;13 – 00;03;14;12
Need you see you know the momentum crossed over like you’re saying there. And then you would be I mean essentially trying to climb your way back into highs. Right.
00;03;14;13 – 00;03;30;16
It’s kind of choppy too. I mean it’s an illiquid contract. So you write it as like you’re going to get these bigger ranges with lower volumes. Even with that, again, there is your higher low right there. This guy right there versus this one. Another 12I mean you’ve got we use the 20 day moving average. It’s a little bit faster.
00;03;30;16 – 00;03;44;14
It’s climbed over that for two days in a row now. So you can’t count these two bars because we settled below. It’s traded through it and then came back down. Yep. Here we were getting a settlement over that price. The last time we saw a settlement over that price was about $0.10 ago. So just something to be mindful of.
00;03;44;14 – 00;03;48;11
There’s some things there’s some bullish things brewing here and the all August note that.
00;03;48;13 – 00;03;58;17
Talk about a market. You mentioned this too I mean trades very illiquid. But that has just been seemingly on rock bottom recently where it’s not getting a whole lot of love from anybody. Nobody really want to talk about nonfat.
00;03;58;22 – 00;04;01;25
Well not really. And by the way you say illiquid.
00;04;01;28 – 00;04;03;20
Illiquid really.
00;04;03;23 – 00;04;05;07
I think it’s a liquidity.
00;04;05;12 – 00;04;08;13
I did I did I was hoping we were going to catch it. But it is illiquid.
00;04;08;13 – 00;04;10;12
Li I think you just coined a new term.
00;04;10;17 – 00;04;11;09
Illiquid like.
00;04;11;10 – 00;04;12;05
A liquidy.
00;04;12;07 – 00;04;12;27
Illiquid.
00;04;13;00 – 00;04;15;07
Illiquid it’s contract is illiquid.
00;04;15;10 – 00;04;15;25
I like it.
00;04;16;00 – 00;04;22;27
I like it up I went with it. We’re going with it. Here’s another illiquid contract who spot where this came from. Trucker Katie is that right.
00;04;23;03 – 00;04;25;28
Yep. Long time listener first time caller trucker or.
00;04;26;00 – 00;04;45;11
First time caller. First time request maker from Wisconsin. All right. I mean, this one’s looking no good. if we’re going to go with the thrown a cheese joke here. Yeah, I don’t know. This isn’t looking to do out here, but know. So this is weekly spot way. You know NASCAR. Bring it today. Check out bases loaded with Joe Schmidt, by the way.
00;04;45;11 – 00;05;02;00
Yeah, sorry about that. But now aspirin today. The previous one was 46.25 ish. I think today’s print was like 44.5 price of 60. So it was down a little over a penny and a half or something. It’s definitely down ticking in the NASCAR now. We hit a few weeks in a row of 46 ish, but you know here I don’t know, man.
00;05;02;00 – 00;05;17;27
I mean, to me it’s like, I think you got to be a little bit careful getting married to this chart. Futures are premium here. You know it seems like way and when you start talking about like 36 $0.37 in the CME, I feel like, you know, you’re going to struggle to get through 40 futures have struggled to get through 40.
00;05;18;02 – 00;05;27;05
Right. And we’ll see what the NASCAR does here. And over the next couple of weeks. But I guess for me, I think if we’re going to cement this, you got to look for the open lower next week. Right.
00;05;27;08 – 00;05;29;04
So you’ve got it on your chart. And we have broken.
00;05;29;11 – 00;05;29;28
The rest of the week.
00;05;29;28 – 00;05;32;29
And settled below your long term trend there. Also, I.
00;05;32;29 – 00;05;48;12
Agree, I look at this chart and I say there’s other things that could potentially come into play here, like the NASCAR not moving in as quickly. And again futures I just want to be little careful. Future is kind of putting around $0.40 some of these months like that’s I don’t know we’ll see. But this chart on itself it does look bearish.
00;05;48;12 – 00;06;02;02
I think if we cemented this close by the end of this week and then got an open lower, then the next stop would have to be this this area right here. Right. Because you’d be technically through. So all this stuff, if we scroll up to that low, we are technically through that.
00;06;02;05 – 00;06;03;17
We get 36, 31.
00;06;03;17 – 00;06;11;03
I mean, it’s a cash that is like so close. That is I mean, that’s right there. If we close here, you would technically be through all this stuff.
00;06;11;09 – 00;06;18;10
The lowly have. There is 36 half and the low that we have on this week is 36 quarter. So you’re, you’re just snip it right through there.
00;06;18;10 – 00;06;22;03
I mean you’re just right there quarter cent higher and you’re not in the new lows.
00;06;22;05 – 00;06;23;14
Exactly. Yep.
00;06;23;17 – 00;06;24;02
For this move.
00;06;24;02 – 00;06;37;23
So you’re saying next week if we open up let’s say we get Monday Tuesday trade. It is Wednesday, which I’ve totally forgot to mention at the beginning. We’re actually recording this on 410, which is a Wednesday afternoon. So we have two more days of trading this week alone, a couple days.
00;06;37;24 – 00;06;50;17
So that’s some to me, like I said, if you’re gonna get pushed into the 30 cent area where it really to break breakout from, I think you have to get this close here at least this week and then open lower next week. And then I think it’s a quick nickel down. But again, I want to be really mindful of how the futures are trading.
00;06;50;19 – 00;06;51;21
Let me ask you this.
00;06;51;21 – 00;06;52;03
Hit me.
00;06;52;05 – 00;06;54;15
You think we breakthrough $0.30.
00;06;54;22 – 00;07;11;06
No no I don’t. Personally I think something else to be mindful of too is that we just took a peek at nonfat. Typically whey is what back in the envelope math whey is usually a third of the nonfat price. Good point. If nonfat is going to hold, and we think August is good at 120, then.
00;07;11;08 – 00;07;11;21
Though we should.
00;07;11;21 – 00;07;26;28
See we should either struggle to see whey break. So yeah, first thing I thought of when you ask that question was, well, we just said August nonfat is good at 120 right. So yeah, I mean that’s for just, you know, those that are out there back of the envelope math way usually trades at one third the price of nonfat.
00;07;27;00 – 00;07;28;29
So usually it’s a good gauge right.
00;07;29;00 – 00;07;29;20
Makes sense.
00;07;29;20 – 00;07;45;05
Yeah. This chart I think like I said, given some of the other things that we know we’re going you know are I like I look at that chart it looks bearish. Don’t get me wrong I think you got to cement this close and get a close lower for us to get down to $0.30. I think I’d be want to be really careful of a wick like this by the end of the week.
00;07;45;05 – 00;07;59;21
We’re at like $0.38 or something like that. If that were to happen, I would expect us to come back and test this uptrend. I love this chart. I think it’s a great ask because again, we’re technically into new lows for all this stuff right here below that technically.
00;07;59;24 – 00;08;00;27
Are middle of the week.
00;08;00;27 – 00;08;10;21
Also middle of the week. So we got to get a close there and then an open lower than next week. Gut feeling I think we’re going to get a candle that looks more like this. And then you get some price action that kind of looks like this. Be a little careful here.
00;08;10;25 – 00;08;11;11
I like that.
00;08;11;15 – 00;08;19;28
A little careful. Thank you. By the way shout out Katie. Yeah shout out there. Shout out. This is a great mask. Keep them coming. Thank you. And then last one certainly not least.
00;08;19;28 – 00;08;20;20
Our good friend.
00;08;20;26 – 00;08;23;15
Our good friend Jimbo. Mister Jimbo.
00;08;23;17 – 00;08;25;26
From Illinois’s.
00;08;25;29 – 00;08;27;11
From Illinois’s.
00;08;27;14 – 00;08;28;13
Illinois’s.
00;08;28;15 – 00;08;33;11
You know when I lived in Oregon like everybody in Oregon called Illinois. Illinois.
00;08;33;14 – 00;08;34;27
Is it Oregon or Oregon?
00;08;35;03 – 00;08;36;07
It’s Oregon.
00;08;36;09 – 00;08;39;15
Kevin in our office made fun of me when I moved to Chicago and I said, Oregon.
00;08;39;15 – 00;08;47;19
Oregon? Yeah, or gone. But yeah, people in Illinois call Oregon, Oregon, people in Oregon call Illinois. Or noise.
00;08;47;22 – 00;08;49;09
I don’t know is because it’s nice in the end.
00;08;49;09 – 00;08;54;03
And I’ve lived in both states. So I’ve gotten, you know, a sample from from both worlds here.
00;08;54;03 – 00;08;58;06
So you understand where we’re all coming from when it’s hard to pronounce a lot of this stuff.
00;08;58;06 – 00;08;58;26
Correct?
00;08;58;29 – 00;08;59;09
Okay.
00;08;59;12 – 00;09;01;22
Struggle. Right. It’s a struggle.
00;09;01;24 – 00;09;09;21
It’s a struggle. When I first got to Illinois, I was I was nervous, man. I don’t want to offend. I actually don’t really care about offending anybody. But I didn’t want hurt too many feelings.
00;09;09;24 – 00;09;14;16
What’s what? Wait a minute. What’s like the what’s like the sweet spot for you? Like what’s enough for you?
00;09;14;16 – 00;09;16;29
Get to know me. Like, once you get to know me, then you just expect.
00;09;16;29 – 00;09;19;10
Then just expect to have your feelings hurt, right?
00;09;19;12 – 00;09;24;08
The first two weeks working there come, you know, moving to a new city I didn’t want to be like, oh, welcome to Illinois.
00;09;24;10 – 00;10;06;17
Welcome to Illinois. Right on a hundred different things, different kind of different things. July meal from Jimbo poopy I don’t know. So yesterday, foreclosure, I reached out to Jim and we were talking about, I asked if this is thoughts on this being a W. So this is what the chart looked like when I asked what’s it’s not so much anymore, but I think like what bugs me about this chart is that we’re kind of getting back down around here and you’ve had a significant move, and now you’re starting to get some of the secondary stuff on the longer term, indicating that we’re starting to slow down this break.
00;10;06;19 – 00;10;17;00
Right. So let’s take a quick peek at here. So we haven’t gotten oversold just yet right. It’s kind of like it’s you know saying buy it. But it’s more like we’re going to be really careful.
00;10;17;07 – 00;10;17;26
On selling.
00;10;17;27 – 00;10;40;24
Of meat. Yeah. Again you know if you’re short buying calls against to protect yourself against you know, like converting your, I don’t know, three short futures buying puts or something like that. You know, in any futures fine. But like between this kind of once it gets into let’s say gets oversold, that’s like a, that’s the flag. And then if it comes back out of it, you’d want to be seriously considering going long, at least going to shorts.
00;10;40;27 – 00;10;48;09
And then the momentum piece is starting to get close to zero again. That hasn’t done that well. So one of the.
00;10;48;12 – 00;11;01;25
The RSI and when you asked this yesterday before I’d answered you and Jim in our our chat, we were talking about this and I was looking at the RSI. And if you look at yesterday it didn’t really roll over that much. But now look at the RSI today. So an acceleration downward. Holy.
00;11;01;25 – 00;11;29;13
So the daily is definitely showing signs that there’s still more to go. Yeah the downside right. And you know to your point today’s close certainly cemented that I was looking at this and saying like we’re getting a higher low technically we are. And then bam right in my face. So but again I look at this and I say we’ve had a significant break and are now getting ourselves out of this downtrend, but also you’re getting a higher low technically.
00;11;29;13 – 00;11;52;23
I mean, you could theoretically be right back to what is this three 340 ish. Yeah. 45 it’s so I think he’s going to be super careful of this 340 area. So they’re bumping up against it and make like a small ascending triangle. But you know if you’re looking for a spot to potentially get long like this, consolidate this breakout from the downtrend.
00;11;52;29 – 00;12;13;06
Higher low. Now you’re getting consolidation. Typically big moves happening. Or I guess markets tend to move in like threes right. So you get like the big move in this case a break. The second phase is like a consolidation. And then the third phase of that move is some sort of retracement of the first piece. So I feel like we’re entering like the phase two piece of it.
00;12;13;08 – 00;12;36;05
We’ve trended lower for a significant I mean this is a huge move when you think about it. Right where this thing start for 34, I mean, yeah. 430. So here we are at 340. You’ve broken almost, you know, the 100 bucks. Yeah. That’s huge. So I guess my point is that again, I feel like we’re out of phase one into phase two of a big move, which is to consolidate.
00;12;36;07 – 00;12;51;03
I think if you keep consolidating and keep making these kind of abrupt, higher lows like this, you got to be super careful. And then I think the real killer here would be a 350 like a three double close. 355 close range.
00;12;51;06 – 00;13;09;17
Right. That’s what I want to ask you. If you go back to even the two previous moves, I was going to call them. It’s hard looking at this one. I want to ask you I was going to call them both flags. They’re not technically flags because we went go back to this the 8th of March, starting on the 8th of March at Big uptick day.
00;13;09;20 – 00;13;29;09
Yep. Right there. And then see how we started. Kind of like making our sells a little bit of a. Yeah, kind of filling out the flag within we go and retrace the low of what do we got there. 335 and then we do it again. Yeah. Right now what we’ve seen is you’re seeing the exact opposite of that where I thought it was at first a bear flag.
00;13;29;15 – 00;13;46;24
And now we’ve gone back and just the top of 340, and it looks like we’re about to do the same darn thing again and get into that possible. W is that any kind of formation where you take you take what you had two weeks ago, flip it on its head. And that’s all we got right now.
00;13;46;29 – 00;14;08;17
Kind of I mean, is that momentum tells you does that right. Like the last 12 you the last 12 trading sessions I mean ten would be two weeks. Right. And right I like 12 okay. Regardless like to me. But I think if I just use the momentum piece for a second, it’s it’s consolidated, right? I mean, what you just described is a market that’s consolidating.
00;14;08;19 – 00;14;28;18
So I think you got to just be super careful of, like I said, when you have a big move and then it consolidates for a while, that and I mean a while, I mean like a good chunk, like at least a third of the of the time frame of this move. Right. So this was mid November to basically, you know, early March.
00;14;28;21 – 00;14;36;14
It’s what, close to five months. So if we got two months worth of consolidation then I think you got to be really careful of being overly short.
00;14;36;16 – 00;14;37;05
Okay.
00;14;37;07 – 00;14;58;05
So but I mean if you were to take a shot at being long, at the very least you know where you’re wrong. Three 3330 three quarter versus like, I think if you got a break out of this three half, so you go settle three double, you leave like let’s say that does consolidate for a couple months. You know, just puts around here you’ll leave behind several months worth of new selling right after a significant break.
00;14;58;07 – 00;15;24;12
Like the psychology of it would be like in this case, I don’t want to I don’t want to stay short that so if I just do this 365 threes, I mean like these, these numbers 365 through 75 become magnets. So I don’t know I think I was short I definitely want to be covering something buying calls I think if you wanted to be long I think you could do something like a three, you know, 323 and pick a risk reversal where you’re selling a puts.
00;15;24;12 – 00;15;38;13
It’s basically on this low or something. Yeah. But I think if if it does break out from this three half area, it could be a pretty wicked move or a nice retracement I think a risk reversals way to go get some off it. Even money you’re not having like a premium spend that could potentially erode over time though.
00;15;38;16 – 00;15;41;01
So you’re saying trying to sell that put down a 330.
00;15;41;03 – 00;15;42;24
Yeah. Somewhere there.
00;15;42;29 – 00;15;45;24
Makes sense. Makes sense.
00;15;45;28 – 00;15;54;01
That’s what you like to do. You you sell puts and you buy calls and like that’s right. That’s right. That’s bullish right. Bullish okay.
00;15;54;01 – 00;16;02;12
Yeah getting bullish. All right. Well awesome charts as always my friend. Greatly appreciate the insight and the expertise on that.
00;16;02;13 – 00;16;06;12
We appreciate appreciate all the columns or the requests about that.
00;16;06;13 – 00;16;08;11
Yeah we killed it three in a row three.
00;16;08;11 – 00;16;09;00
For three.
00;16;09;05 – 00;16;12;23
Three for three. We love it we love it. If more people have some please let us know.
00;16;12;23 – 00;16;13;21
Three right I’ve.
00;16;13;22 – 00;16;29;27
The hardest part I’ve learned is like not so much finding out what charts they want. They’re they’re usually pretty adamant about that. But then asking them what they want their name to be because some people want an alias, right? They don’t want people knowing who’s calling in nice name. And you ask them and it’s so potent if you can’t figure it out.
00;16;30;00 – 00;16;31;00
Track two Bob.
00;16;31;02 – 00;16;32;14
Jack, Bob. Love it.
00;16;32;21 – 00;16;34;21
What would your alias be?
00;16;34;24 – 00;16;35;07
Steve.
00;16;35;14 – 00;16;35;26
Steve?
00;16;36;02 – 00;16;48;10
Yeah, yeah. New Jersey Steve never been in new Jersey. My name is probably the farthest away from Steve as possible, so no one would ever figure out that it was me. Yes. Okay, so now you’re going to know new Jersey.
00;16;48;10 – 00;16;53;29
Yeah. So if you see some troll or somebody on YouTube or something like that, just getting after people, but it says like new Jersey Steve.
00;16;54;05 – 00;17;03;07
Or like Delaware Karl, some of that kind of flows, but it’s a little bit awkward. It’s like, hey, I don’t want to meet this guy on the internet, but he sounds like a nice guy to talk to you on the phone. Delaware Castle.
00;17;03;09 – 00;17;08;28
Delaware. I’m the like.
00;17;09;01 – 00;17;14;09
All right, everybody, we appreciate you watching TikTok with yourself in Delaware. Carl here. We’ll see you next week.
00;17;14;09 – 00;17;16;23
Delaware girl. I’m not a Delaware girl.
00;17;16;25 – 00;17;20;20
Hey, mom. I met a guy online. His name’s Delaware. Carl. I’m moving to Delaware.
[/bg_collapse]
The following music was used for this media project:
Music: Funky Intro 29 by TaigaSoundProd
Free download: https://filmmusic.io/song/9520-funky-…
License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license
Artist website: https://linktr.ee/taigasoundprod
