In this episode of Tech Talk, Andy and Cody discuss Dec crude oil, CME cheese and Nov class III.
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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is. And together we are the Tech Talk team. It is the 8th of October, just about 4:00 eastern time, 3:00 central. Andy, are you doing. You know.
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What.
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I’m doing. Great.
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That’s okay. I’m doing great. How are you doing?
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I’m doing well. Thank you for asking.
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I just. Michelle, can you say. Can you say tech talk team three times fast like you do? Like I think you should get, like, either 1 or 2 tattoos, like tech talk for life somewhere or like t cubed and nobody else will know except our loyal fans. So it’s tech talk.
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I feel like tech TikTok triggered TikTok.
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What did you say? You don’t even.
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Remember to a thousand subscribers. And I will get that by the end. You for life. Sure. Thousand drivers by the end of this year, by this 30th, 31 second.
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We get 1000 subscribers. You’re getting a tattoo that says tech talks a life. Sure. Done. Put it on. Wait.
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Ask me. You have right now.
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I don’t know, but we need to get up to 1000. Don’t tell me where you gonna put the tattoo either. Will you just keep that to yourself?
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That’s right. Make it a surprise.
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And if we get to a million, I’m pretty sure. Isn’t Phil going to take you to the moon or something like that? But you guys are going to, like.
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Around 10,000 subscribers.
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Okay? You know, like, I think I think you and you and Phil are like, going to be joining legs in your Space Force or NASA or something like that. You both are going to the moon. Right.
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But if we can play close I will get that tattooed on my body somewhere. I think it’d.
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Be pretty cool to go to the moon.
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I don’t know what you.
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Do when you get there. You mean you just kind of, like, float around and stuff like that? So it’s only kind of cool.
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Like floating around.
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So speaking of floating around, excellent Segway. Should we talk about. We had one request. The cities go around. We did one request. This is November. Crude oil, courtesy of Erica is an internet request. Shout out Erica appreciate it. Thank you I don’t know what do you think. What do you see when you when you when you take a little gander at this chart.
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What do you say?
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This. It was different when she asked us was it yesterday this.
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Yes yes, yes. It’s yesterday morning. So it’s really.
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I mean, kind of a pretty bullish formation besides this one candle that we have that engulfed all of yesterday and the day before.
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That. Yeah. So technically, I mean, to be fair, she was asking us when the chart really would look will look more like that.
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Right. Right.
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And it’s I mean, in all fairness to if you would have like and we did TikTok yesterday, there was a lot of reasons to say like, why is this? You know, this thing could start to really go at you broke out here, you had a clear here, right? And then oh, not so fast.
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Yeah.
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This is pretty nasty.
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I mean.
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Well, what’s interesting about is it’s an outside day potentially down. Right. What’s what’s tomorrow’s open going to look like if we open lower and especially if we open. But like you start talking about open below. What is this low 7362 is yesterday’s low. Previous low from that is 7346. So if you get a close below those two lows as early as tomorrow, it’s like yikes.
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This could be lights out. You just you completely engulf the body of the previous that like you said, that’s just like a complete like, you know, train smash. Like it’s the had all kinds of reasons for it to go up technically w that breakout hit that big Green Day. All right. It’s just amazing. Yesterday the yesterday’s candle.
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Wasn’t saying like in one day and one days, you know ask how yesterday it looked very bullish. And then you get statements like wow hold on a second maybe.
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Man hold on hold on. So it’s interesting is that when you start talking about like yesterday’s close look where it got it got right up around this area too. So this appears to be a price point 77 ish where if we can clear that price, you know, obviously after today’s session two. But if you can clear that price, you know it’s got room to potentially go.
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But again in the short term here and now this could easily go back into this like low 70s you know mid high 60s kind of thing. After today’s candle I mean that is just so bearish. It’s ridiculous.
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So if tomorrow we opened up at let’s just say 74 above where we technically closed out today. You’d want to give it one more day just to see if we could.
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Yeah I’d want to at least see how it’s trading. Yeah. I mean, let’s just see how it’s trading. Right. But I mean, this this is just so. I mean, it’s just completely overshadowing this candle right here. This was a big day yesterday. What was this up? Nearly three bucks.
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276. And then just bam and closed nearly on the high yesterday I was 7740. Closed at 7714.
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Yeah.
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That’s very close to settling and I and again after this breakout, after this double nice w this looked great yesterday. Nope. Not so fast.
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Even open I mean open today 77.3 looking fairly bullish.
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Yep. And you had reason to add given that open right. So yeah this is a nasty one. But I mean if you open lower tomorrow and then you start getting trade below these, these two lows really it’s it’s this low right. 7346 then I think you just you really start to jeopardize getting back into here and then and then you start to like start to question like this low right here too.
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Right. Basically the 67 area. But yeah. No this looks tear this. Yikes. This this is like a candle on like cheese by the way. Wow. It’s like these great candles that we’re seeing here lately about that.
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Yes it does.
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So I look I guess for crude oil, if you were to ask me yesterday, I’m sure would have told you to buy it based on the chart. Obviously. Wrong. Yikes. I think you have to be super careful here. And if we trading below this low from two days ago or two sessions ago, I should say like 70 bucks, but I think becomes a pretty good magnet.
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This, this this, like range right here. Right kind of in here where it started to get like I would say more or less more like rate here ish, kind of where it started to really go. Right. It completed this year. So this is where I think we ultimately end up after yesterday’s or after today’s session. But who knows, maybe we get like this gigantic green candle tomorrow and you want to buy it with both hands and let’s do this.
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I don’t really do anything in crude. I just, you know.
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Interesting to look at, though.
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You got a truck. I mean, you know, you’re you’re always thinking about gas, especially with a truck or with a diesel, I forget. No you. Yeah.
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So I’d say you have a car I’m pretty sure you’re worried about.
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I do, but, I mean, I drive it as it’s like, you know, like the one and a half miles to the train station. Sometimes it’s.
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For.
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Let’s. I’ve had my car for like four years, and I think I’ve got less than 25,000 miles on it. For what it’s worth, it’s impressive. So about that, right. How about that? All right. Next. Thank you, Erica, for the request shop. Next. This has been a yikes. Cheese. 241 day 119 the next. This is a weekly of semi cheese.
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This is just a simple average of the block and barrel. I mean, it’s just been like lights out for this thing. And there’s been it’s been mostly in the barrel, right? I mean the barrel was the one that climbed into record highs and then we’ve seen very little trading. So what’s interesting about this is that this price action has come off a very, very little volume.
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So the question is when you start to run into volume, I drew this line right here before, you know, for him, this is the low end of this near the when we were talking about that bull flag that it was making. 185 it’s just kind of that lower area, but that’s only a nickel away on average. That said, it’s interesting.
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We’ll take a look at it in a second. But futures don’t seem to be buying into this break as much anymore. Obviously when we were, you know, falling pretty, pretty aggressively, futures seem like every day we’re down 3040 points.
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But was it two, 2 or 3 weeks ago we were looking at the same chart. I had a I actually had somebody call me after they watched TikTok and they said, you and Andy had talked about the gap at 183. Do you really think that could get filled? And I was like, well, I mean, at that point we were still up above 225 cheese.
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And I was like, I think it was more of just like a talking point. There is a gap to be mindful of. And as we keep falling every day, I look at that gap right there and I’m like, boy, what a what a way to go to what.
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You’re talking about. This one right here, right.
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That one right there. And there’s one below there at a dollar. What? 65 call it to sit there.
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Right there.
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Yeah. And we were just talking about this chart, and, you know, this gentleman had said, does this kind of remind you? Yes. Me. Does it remind you of the Covid years? If you look back where we were up there at what? We go down to a dollar cheese when we were pretty close. 70. Like it just made that nasty information.
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And I got me thinking. I’m like, man, it does resemble that kind of on a smaller scale, if you will. Sure.
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Sure. Well, I mean, I just I went back to that right there it is. 101 on average just over a buck, just over a dollar. This one’s I mean this one’s obviously very it’s super tough. I mean to me it’s like when do we start to see volume change hands? There’s a lot to be said too. I mean, there is obviously you know, you get into discussion about previous month pricing and now that certainly I’m sure it’s played a bit of a role here too, and how quickly we’ve been able to break in, you know, the timing for which we can start to see some support too.
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But I to your point, there’s a there’s a big gap, but it’s there. Right. And for this market to go trade 183 at this point we went on right. And we just broke $0.50 a pound off the highs. And we did it on next to no volume.
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Only to throw down another $0.05 today. So why not right.
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Back out and to take another $0.07 out of the market and go try to price it? To me it’s that certainly seems possible. I think the futures are trying to tell us something. No, we’ll take like I said, we’ll take a look at November in a minute here. But I mean, it’s the futures that I think are charting to kind of give us a little bit of guidance.
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I think what we want to be somewhat careful of is the potential for, trying to find an example. I feel like we’re due for something like we’re getting ready to do something like this. So this would be, I think, in the it’s it’s called a harami h.r a mi where you have a big red candle and this would be a bullish probably.
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Right. The inverse would be a bearish one. But basically you have a big red candle and then the and then the body of the next candle is the opposite color. And within the body of the previous one. Right. So you have this big red candle body is within the the previous candle here. Right. And then you open in the direction of the color of this candle.
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And the next one that that formation is typically again called a harami. And go take a look, you know, online or something like that. Learn more about it. Again you could you could say that you invert it and you have a bearish one. Right. So it’s not just for bulls, but I think we’re getting ready to see something like this in the gap.
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But I want to be somewhat mindful of just given the way futures are trading. Is this one at this point right. We had today’s export data that showed phenomenal exports for August despite, you know, super high prices at the same. Yeah. And we certainly been there’s been to some discussion about exports being alive and well for like Q1 and Q2.
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So you know to me I don’t know when that happens. I think we still have some more weakness to see at the exchange. But but I want to be somewhat mindful of is this this is a bit on this. There we go. This formation right here. Look it up. I think we’ve got a harami coming. And if we do and like let’s say this week is low and the next week we kind of have just like a slightly higher week, not much, but just kind of slightly higher.
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And then we start to get into the tail end of October and we start to see a little bit of a pop. That’s when I’d want to be like thinking about like this gap has the potential to go get filled.
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So then let me ask you a question. If that gap is going to get filled, do you see it playing out where we complete the M formation, go back up to 240, hit our top, and then come back down?
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I definitely think that’s possible. Yeah, okay. I definitely think that’s possible. So you’re talking about like doing something like this.
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Exactly.
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Fill it or something like that. And then and then retest this. Yeah definitely.
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Well I was thinking more of like actually going back to 240. So blowing past that gap, getting up 640 and then coming back down to like the M formation. Yeah. Right there and then coming back down and filling the gap at 165.
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Okay. So you got it. And I mean, that is entirely possible for sure. I’m I’m a little bit I can’t say I agree with you. And the idea of going in testing the previous high that 240 price. I think we go fill that gap based on what I was talking about with the Romy, and then we I think we’d be done.
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Okay. We’ll see. I don’t know, how’s this cost or dairy making any more milk? That’s also the.
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Question. What is with everything else going on right now? I don’t know if anyone’s making more milk right now.
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Who knows? That can be an opportunity for you.
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Mean we.
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Get some? Just get a couple. Two. Three more cows and start milking them.
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Two. Three.
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If you can find them.
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If so.
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Like I said, for now, I think we have to be like, here’s this line of support, this 185 to your point, you have a 183 price to go fill that gap. I don’t think it would be unreasonable or difficult, given the fact that we move so much on such like volume. I just think that as we progress lower with how the futures are trading, let’s be really mindful of something like this propping up here.
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Okay. All right. Last but not least, November class three.
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You know.
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Hey, so I did this Fibonacci from where I feel like it really started to go from. And that was when it broke out here. Right? Once it cleared all this, it started to really and obviously just like this, this uptrend continued and then really accelerated here. So I change it up a little bit and did a much longer term Fibonacci and found that when we got to 50% and starting to really run into a ton of volume.
00;13;14;15 – 00;13;31;11
So that kind of coincides too with, you know, some of this right here when you think about all this like this big down up. So a lot of traffic, a lot of volume, that was changing hands. So again, I think the futures are trying to tell us something. We’ll see what open interest us tomorrow. I think open interest is going to be a big one for them.
00;13;31;11 – 00;13;52;07
But what people liquidating today are we getting new selling. You know like that’s the thing. I mean we’ve had a significant break, you know, off of these highs 2330 basically down to nearly, you know, sub 21 bucks, you know, taking down almost not quite but almost a 22 hands. Yeah. So you talked about shaving two and a half box office contract potentially in a very short amount.
00;13;52;11 – 00;14;00;28
I mean that’s a huge move. So you see some people wanting to liquidate I think that the question is do we see new selling at like this, you know, 21 to 20.5 area.
00;14;01;01 – 00;14;12;05
And we’ve seen the volume in November alone has upticks heavily I think for the past week. We got 1100 contracts traded today. Yesterday I think we were 900 maybe 915.
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Volume can be a very big indicator.
00;14;14;16 – 00;14;15;08
Yeah.
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Oh it’s actually.
00;14;16;13 – 00;14;34;04
So November doesn’t actually start pricing until next week. Check. Obviously Josh if open interest has declined, do you see it going the way that you were talking about the cheese chart where now we make another run higher back up to $22 for an example?
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I think so. Only because like if, if open interest is declining. My guess is that shorts are liquidating into new shorts. Right. And I don’t feel like if people are selling it now when there’s not much of a much of a premium relative to cash. And we’ve had a significant move already. I just don’t get a good feeling about that.
00;14;53;05 – 00;15;09;15
I don’t know, we’ll see. But to me, like this has been a just a massive move in a short amount of time. It’s a question of like, what’s the new selling units are looking like? And now that, you know, futures again, the big move in cash. I mean, there was all every reason on the sun for us to be settled 30 lower.
00;15;09;15 – 00;15;31;03
We didn’t. So I think tomorrow’s open is going to be a big deal for, for November. Do we get an open or at least like a not only an open but a open higher but a close above yesterday’s open, which was 2128. You close above this candle and all of a sudden the momentum starts to shift a little bit more towards the bulls, or at least kind of gives bears a second thought of like, you know, do I want to be short this thing anymore?
00;15;31;05 – 00;15;48;26
I think that’s going to need, you know, some support and cash. I’m not quite sure that we’re going to get that just yet. But, you know, another thing to be mindful of, too, is if we get like a hammer in the cash market here in this week and then get that like that small candle in the body of it next week, that harami type deal, and then that could be starting to be some signals that things are making some shifts.
00;15;48;26 – 00;16;03;20
We’ll see. Yeah, I was going to say we definitely saw, I mean green on the board after spot. It definitely was not doing as well before or before before, but still I mean, I think we were down $0.25 at one time in November and it bounced our way back. So very interesting data.
00;16;03;20 – 00;16;10;11
It’s it’s definitely it it’s it’s keeping us on our toes. It is it has been interesting and it’s continued and it’s going to continue to be interesting.
00;16;10;14 – 00;16;19;15
If anything, this market has done just that. Cool. All right. Well Erica, we appreciate the question on crude.
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Deep and commonplace.
00;16;20;29 – 00;16;28;22
The only person that we had call in for this episode, we’re going to be back next week. I’m actually gonna be in Chicago with you guys next Tuesday. Now.
00;16;28;25 – 00;16;31;08
Say you got your Halloween costume picked up.
00;16;31;21 – 00;16;34;06
I do not this. I still got to get that. I don’t want to get.
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On the list. Get on the list.
00;16;36;12 – 00;16;37;02
Forgot about that.
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I write that down.
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Write it down.
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While Cody writes that down.
00;16;42;26 – 00;17;00;14
And I want to forget I completely botched that one. We’ll figure it out. We’re going to figure it out. So all right everybody appreciate you tuning in and watching if you would if you have not already please subscribe to the channel. Gives a thumbs up. Hit that notification bell. Like I said we get a thousand likes. I get that tick tock tick.
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Tock for life, for.
00;17;01;18 – 00;17;15;13
Life somewhere on my body. By the end of this year, December 31st, we had 10,000 likes. I was promised a trip to NASA to potentially go to the moon through there and the space station thing. So a lot of things, a lot of big things happening in that right now.
00;17;15;17 – 00;17;17;29
I’m excited that it could be a very Merry Christmas for Kelly.
00;17;18;04 – 00;17;20;27
It could be an interesting year. I’m excited.
00;17;21;03 – 00;17;21;21
Let’s go.
00;17;21;24 – 00;17;24;02
Until next time. Thanks for watching.
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