It’s all spot, all the time! Cody and Andy break down the latest action in block, butter, and nonfat with rapid-fire charts and bold calls. From gaps to gauntlets, the spot market rollercoaster takes center stage in this week’s Tech Talk.

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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Talk. I am Cody, he is Andy. Behind the scenes is Paige Driscoll pulling the levers, pushing the buttons, making sure that we stay on topic. It is actually the 3rd of September. Wednesday morning, about 10:45 eastern quarter ten central time. We’re doing this on a different day, different time. A little morning.

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Show, morning show, morning cup of coffee with Cody.

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That’s right.

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Mid morning. Like I think you could open like a store call it like Cody’s corner and get a cup of coffee at Cody’s corner. Then my holiday was fine.

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How’s yours? There’s good, good weather. Not too hot, not too cold. But you can definitely tell that fall is kind of right around the corner. But we enjoyed every second of it.

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And you can be raking leaves here pretty soon. And then you’re going to get like, the snowplow out.

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Don’t remind me.

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I see you got the Michigan state flag still out there.

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Still out there. Had a big win on Friday and a big win. We’re excited.

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How about that Jack? Is Michigan State winning that this year.

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Though I doubt it. But watching that play on Friday oh.

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Come on.

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Highly doubtful. But hey you know what if we get over six wins this year and a.

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Perfect record so far, I don’t think.

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That’s true. If we can get 7 or 8 wins, I am I am very excited for this year. But we’ll we’ll see.

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We’ll see. Cody’s I don’t know if I call that glass half full just yet, but we’ll see. Yeah.

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We’ll see.

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Speaking of I don’t know if we can call this markets glass half full right now. We’re doing a special today. All spot all the time. That’s great. So you got three spot markets we’re looking at today in succession. Rapid fire. Let’s go boom. No more Michigan State talk here. We’ll just going to do it in order. So the block butter and nonfat.

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That’s how they appear in the stern is the spot call. So let’s let’s get into it. This is the semi block. Let me just widen this bad boy out so you can see that guy. It’s just like chop sitting here. Yeah I don’t what do you want to do.

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I think I want to sell it I think I want to sell it back down to $1.60.

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Okay. That’s just like you had to practice saying that too, didn’t you? Sell?

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I did.

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It’s not like practice in front of the mirror this morning.

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Sell what? I think we talked like last week. Or maybe it was two weeks ago. And we looked at it about it kind of winding up a little bit there, and it looks like it has, but now it doesn’t looks so much like a winding up. It more looks like it’s just rolling over and heading in to fill that gap at a buck 70 we’re at right now, we’re at a dollar 76.5 as of yesterday.

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The market. So back and forth, I agree. I mean it’s hard to disagree with what you’re saying. You know, it fill this gap. It made a gap to fill a gap. Right. Look at that. Yeah.

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Yeah.

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Made a gap to fill a gap. Try to get above. Tried to go test this. And just the last three weeks I mean this is so this little dash right here is, is yesterday was the first day of the week. So we only have one price so far. But we open lower. And you had one, two, three weeks in a row subsequently that were still haven’t filled this gap yet.

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That price is just north of 170 would go fill that gap. Not by much, but I mean it’s not that far away. This means market’s been super choppy, but it seems like anytime you get anything going to the upside in the mid one 80s, it’s just net loss. You know the future’s fine. It seems like the futures bid start to get really few and far between.

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Like it gets harder to sell and then the cash market you just start to see more and more like sell like we saw those just abrupt like this candle right here hitting golf the previous week. It try to get going. And then I think there was like like it’s a Thursday. I think that was that week or Monday.

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Tuesday, Wednesday we were up like 8 or $0.09 and then come like Friday. By Friday we’d given it all back and then some. Yeah.

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So not a whole lot to be bullish on this block chart right now in my.

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It’s just a tough one. I mean it’s literally in the middle of this big range that we’ve been in. I mean it’s just smack dab in the middle of this range. And so the futures are trading basically like around parity. The cash more or less. Right. It’s not there’s no real big discount, a premium baked in kind of telling us what to do.

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But to your point, this gap looks like it wants to get filled after. We wouldn’t sell this one. So this is this is the next guy. Then the question is, you know, do you go fill this little dude right here? Exactly right. I think.

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You do. I think you do it. I think I think it’ll happen by the end of September.

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That one hasn’t been filled. So. No, you know, like gaps are magnets. They’re unfinished business. So you’re bearish. You’re you’re short term bearish. You’re bearish to like.

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Yes.

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You know for the next call in long.

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Term bearish I am let’s let me be honest about this I am long term bearish. This cheese market getting above $2 is not going to happen.

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Wow. Just throw it like.

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Not going to.

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Happen. Where like we need like an image of like a gantlet. Just like bam thrown down. Yeah. Dust flying everywhere.

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Like the market will not let it happen. To your point, we’ve been between $2.60 $2.94 since last October. The market will not let us test $2. It’s not going to happen.

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Okay, so where do you think we’re going?

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Down on $1.60. What’s going to happen is we’re going to test $1.60. Everyone’s going to get super excited because we’re going to get a bunch of exports booked at that point. And then we’re going to sit there for a little bit of time, try to test 180 by the end of this year, but we’re going towards the end of the year.

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That’s the problem is we’re not going to have a lot of these orders coming back on.

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Well, see, you think we stay within this big range that we’ve been in this one 6185, 190 kind of thing like.

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Yeah. Oh, absolutely. Absolutely. If not, tighten it up a little bit between the dollar 60 the dollar 80 okay.

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That’s there. So yeah I mean it’s tough to disagree with one just to fill this gap right here. This one is also looking like you know if you fill this like this one’s next I agree I mean getting back down into here seems like a tough tower unless we really start to bang on exports. But even if we do, you know, you think about like it’s just a, it’s.

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Yeah, there’s a lot that goes into it obviously. But I mean, if you take the market to 160 and like the rest of the world comes down to like, you know, average price of, let’s say 195, we’re still really competitive. It’s the difference between the two. Yeah. I don’t know. Like I said to me like it’s tough. This has been a super rangebound trade futures feel like they’ve just been kind of finding opportunities to sell off.

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And yeah I think this these two gaps they’re in range here. All right. So you’ve thrown the gantlet down. Sell it. You got the hammer. You put it in the closet.

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Yeah. The bullish hammer is put away for right now.

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It’s it’s in the closet right now. It’s it’s it’s sharpening or getting more like I think we talked about this one. How do you make a hammer. More like like hammer. How do you make it stronger I don’t know it’s doing that right now. It’s lifting weights. Go to Fettis and pre-workout. It’s in there lifting weights right now.

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Getting ready for this, getting ready for the spray.

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All right.

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Getting ready. Next up, I believe Wesco still mentioned that he wanted to see this one this week. Yeah, we may have seen that traded in an email or two so and who wouldn’t. Right. I mean this is spot butter on a weekly basis. There’s a lot of stuff going on. I mean this doesn’t look good at all.

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So it if I’m remembering back correctly, you had mentioned there’s and there is a gap down there at 155 type area. I don’t know if we had a circled first. There’s one at one on 184 right there, then one on 155. Obviously have to test 184 first.

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Right here.

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Yep. What do you think the likelihood is of testing 184 and filling the gap?

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I think for me the next up if you think about like where did this market accelerate from. It was right here. As soon as it cleared this because there was a lot of noise leading up to it. If you go back and look at just this is this is back in time here. So this is October of 21.

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So I mean this right here is Covid or the like post out. Right. And so yeah that they you know just that’s such a where could be bottom good lord. But you ultimately had one. And then a like a big higher low. And since it broke through there it just took off. And it hasn’t really looked back since.

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This is back in October of 21. So I look at that price and say like, if we’re going to go test a price like it, like that’s to me is the next step is testing where the market really accelerated from because since it did that, I mean, it made like just a gigantic head and shoulders here, didn’t it.

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Here.

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Yeah.

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Here and then here. Right. So this is a just a great look at head and shoulders. And then once you broke the neckline right. Then it just turns into an acceleration lower I think to where it took off from which is in this case call it like 190. And that’s not that far away. We’re really 201 another dime.

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And we’ve seen that in a day, you know, another dime. And we’re there. We’ve seen more than that in a day. So that to me it’s like if you just think about it technically that’s the next up is where it accelerated from after making this higher low. And that number is 190.

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I agree, I it’s hard to look at this chart specifically and say there’s anything bullish on the horizon just looking at right now.

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I totally agree. I mean like it’s it’s really tough to get excited about this chart from the long side. It really is. I mean, you took a shot at trying to get out of this stuff and just promptly got like, no, not happening right. Can face like six to the $0.60 to I mean like this right here is a monster move from here to here.

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I mean, how big is it? Hang on. You’re talking about a 60% break. That right there under itself. It’s just a monster move. But I mean, that was the response to the marketplace from trying to get any sort of, like, material retracement going on. So yeah. 194 we took off from I think that’s what we’re going to go test these three guys.

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And if you break through that then to your point you’ve got what this guy right here basically to kind of be mindful of. Now you’re talking about oh my gosh. You’re talking about like 150 to 160.

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Well yeah the 60 cent break is taking us off $3. If not for almost four in class four if we go down to $1.50 butter, you’re talking $15. Class four easily.

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Said like a little shorter. Like I said, like a little shudder went down my spine, like, oh, yeah, what did you just say?

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Me too. Saying the same. I don’t like.

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Them. I can’t say that them on board with 150 just yet, but what I I’d like to see I think this is the next up. Let’s see how this market acts when it goes in test where it accelerated from. Do we start to see like more like we’ve seen big exports that have gone above that said, like we had what, like over 100% increase year to date exports for butter recently?

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I think it was a little last report that we saw in the market probably said, we’ll sell you some more at a lower price if you want. Yeah. So I always think about like what Dreier used to say, like if a market takes bullish information, the future’s reacting. The cash market react in a bearish way. That’s really bearish.

00;09;57;23 – 00;10;11;25

Yeah we’ll see. Like let’s say we get there. Let’s see how Dax. But just another like bullet in the bearish gun for you. You know I don’t I do have the bearish bazooka. It’s around here somewhere. Like I think we only have like one round left in the thing. The other two.

00;10;11;26 – 00;10;15;01

Well you’re going to want to use it on this next chart then also.

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All right. So the next chart do you have a right click. Did you bring your right click button back by the way I don’t feel good.

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It makes me sick being bearish. It just does I don’t feel good at all.

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It’s gonna have to take a.

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To what the.

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You’re gonna have to take a sick day for the rest of the day. That said, like Cody said, he’s bearish. He’s taking a sick day. I’m done done the show. He’s done sick. All right. So this is the last one of the day spot nonfat on a weekly basis. We’ve seen significant weakness in class for recently but it’s been on butter right.

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Right. You’re talking about $16 class four. I think it’s going to be tough to get that. It’s not. That’s kind of just keeps putting around this 125 on 30 area. So you do need to see not that really start to fall apart I think.

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I think you’re going to break nonfat. I think we’re going to break nonfat to 115.

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This is what kind of stuck out to me. You have what appears to be a longer term trend. Try to break through. It came right back into it, but clearly failing to make a new high or even test the former high, I don’t know. Yeah, I don’t think you can call this a head and shoulders at all. Right.

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You typically see like the right shoulder lower than the left. Long story short, you’ve got a nice big uptrend that’s been established since 2023. Call it this time two years ago. And since then it has very steadily, very slowly moved incrementally higher. So I think a breaking of this trend, I think that’s like if you solidify that was like multiple closes lower through it, you know, then you look at testing these points in this case 110 and then this one’s one of five former lows of this move.

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We’ll see. Like if you were banking on this uptrend this failure to your test is this former high or at least what appears to be a failure. It’s not it’s not folding. Well like for this thing to just rip higher like this and then just give it all back, that’s just a sign like it. It reminds me we just looked at it for butter of, you know, the market gave all this back drink and then just ripped right back to.

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So the market clearly didn’t like that price. So if you look at it 140 it took a while, but the market did not like 140 gave all of that rally back.

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So it seems like right now it’s not really enjoying 125 or 26.

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Yeah, either. I mean, we remember we remember butter was cash. It just felt like we were 242, 250 forever. And then all of a sudden, poof, there goes, you know, 40 $0.50. Yeah. To me, like an even on a short term to like, let’s just take a look at this price real fast. This is where it’s. Yeah. 124 and change one 24.5 roughly.

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That’s where we started to kind of we’ve seen a couple bounces from there. So if we break through that price then I think this testing is trend is next. You break through that trend. It gets it starts to get really ugly. Who knows. Nonfat could be like the shining star of this market.

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It might be. I could be totally wrong. So I’m just telling me that it doesn’t look great.

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Cody Spider Senses is going off and he’s starting to right click a little bit. The tingling and the glitch is making him physically ill. Like he’s gonna have to go to the doctor. He’s going to he’s going to take a couple sick days.

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All these off here, and.

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Then you even have a red undershirt on.

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I do look at you.

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That’s that’s a bear. That’s a bear shirt right there.

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It’s a bear shirt. Okay.

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Fair enough.

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I hope I’m wrong. I hope you’re wrong anyway. All right. Well, I appreciate looking at those charts. Whiskey, Phil. Appreciate you tuning in every week and giving us some great suggestions, like you always do. If anyone has any suggestions for next week, next week, please let us know. We have to take a look at them. If you have not already subscribed to our channel, please do hit that thumbs up.

00;13;31;20 – 00;13;47;29

Give us a like. Leave a comment. Let us know that you’re watching. Let us know what you want us to see. And for Andy, myself and Paige, we are going to be off until probably next Tuesday looking at some more charts. See where we’re at. But with that, everyone have a great week, even better weekend. We’ll see you next time on TikTok.

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Bye!

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